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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1801 Postby caribsue » Sat Aug 29, 2009 3:21 pm

Hey Cycloneye.... hope you and yours are all safe and sound from those thunderstorms and flooding.... sounds like a bit of a rough time.

A few hours ago you were begging someone to talk to you re 94L now you prolly could not get a word in.

Take care of yourself
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1802 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 29, 2009 8:11 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1245 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
REMAIN LIMITED THIS EVENING. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1803 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 29, 2009 10:18 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2009

.UPDATE...
LATEST TJSJ UPPER AIR 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED FAIRLY MOIST IN LOW
LEVELS...BUT LIKELY DUE TO SOME LOCAL AREA CONTAMINATION FROM THE
DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH CONTINUED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...OVERALL DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...SINKING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. EXPECT PREVAILING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW TO
TRANSPORT SOME OF THIS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE IN
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND ACCOMPANYING A WEAK LOW LEVEL
TUTT INDUCED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME PASSING SHOWERS
TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND REACH EASTERN PUERTO
RICO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER...EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW TRANSITING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED
SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT PRESENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. ALSO
UPDATED THE LOCAL SFC WINDS BASED OF LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
AND LOCAL LAND AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS SURROUNDING BUOY
DATA.

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#1804 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 29, 2009 11:59 pm

94L is a fighter and a bit more suspicious: always pretty south around 11 N and moving west...an improving structure :roll: Looks like convection is repopping nicely. Don't let your guard down islanders as we're right now in the peak of the season! Let's follow carefully the progress of 94L.
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#1805 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 30, 2009 12:03 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 300000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ELONGATED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N38W SW TO A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 10N42W CONTINUING WSW TO 8N49W. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE/LOW IS WITHIN A VERY BROAD AREA
OF CYCLONIC FLOW AS INDICATED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN ELONGATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 7N-8N
BETWEEN 45W-48W...9N-11N BETWEEN 41W-45W...AND 11N-16N BETWEEN
43W-46W.


$$
WALTON
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#1806 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 30, 2009 12:05 am

Always racing west...with slow organization.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/2345 UTC 10.3N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L

:darrow:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

20090829.94LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-106N-420W
:darrow:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis
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#1807 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 30, 2009 12:15 am

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 300244
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1044 PM AST SAT AUG 29 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...BUT LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DETECTED
SO FAR OVER LAND. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN EASTERLY NEAR 10 MPH THE
PAST FEW HOURS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT
PATCHY MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST...TO BE
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME AS SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

$$

SR
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#1808 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 30, 2009 12:17 am

Have a good night all and we should continue to monitor closely 94L... :)
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1809 Postby abajan » Sun Aug 30, 2009 5:36 am

Please be advised that a "Special Outlook" has been issued in relation to 94L:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300914
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1810 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 30, 2009 5:52 am

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300829
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DEVELOPING TUTT LOW NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS AND HELP MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING TUTT LOW NORTH
OF PR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO DRIFT SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AND SETTLE OVR HISPANIOLA BY MON
EVENING. VEERING WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HELP DRAW MOISTURE NWD FROM THE DEEP TROPICS INTO OUR AREA AND
KEEP US WET FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR TUE-WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS HEIGHTS RISE AS MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE TROP ATLC BUILDS WESTWARD. HOWEVER...CAP DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT DO EXPECT A SIG DROP
IN CONVECTIVE CVRG.

THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG
45W. FIRST IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE SHOW A MARKED
INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITH A CIRCULATION TRYING TO CLOSE OFF NEAR
11.2N AND 45.1W. NOT SURE IF THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A
INTENSIFICATION PHASE OR A SHORT TERM TREND GIVEN FVRBL CONVECTIVE
UPSWING SEEN WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AT NIGHT BUT SYSTEM DEFINITELY
LOOKING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HRS AGO. SVRL GLOBAL MODELS
STILL SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST
RELIABLE/CONSISTENT MODEL THIS YEAR TRACKS THIS SYSTEM VERY CLOSE
TO THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. IT HAS ALSO
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING IT SOUTH OF 20N
OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SYSTEM SLOWING
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE IT REACHES 55W. GREAT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND INTENSITY.

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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1811 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 30, 2009 6:43 am

Code Red

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


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#1812 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 30, 2009 8:08 am

94L...continues to organize steadily.

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#1813 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 30, 2009 8:09 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 16N42W TO A 1009 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N44W TO 7N49W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
45W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W IN WHAT APPEARS
TO BE POSSIBLY ITCZ PRECIPITATION THAT IS BEING ENHANCED AND/OR
PUSHED NORTHWARD BY THE LOW CENTER/TROPICAL WAVE SYSTEM. THE
CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.


$$
MT
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#1814 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:18 am

Close to TD status :eek: and always racing west
Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/1145 UTC 11.9N 46.1W T1.5/1.5 94L



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#1815 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 30, 2009 10:27 am

From the stormcarib.com
29 Aug 2009 21:17:54 -0000 - More invest 94L


Good afternoon,

Invest 94L didn't ramp up as fast as previously forecast, probably due to slightly lower SST's as was mentioned by some of our volunteer hurricane correspondents earlier. However, that's about to change and we could still see some explosive growth by Tuesday. Protective saharan dust is pretty much a non-entity, SST's will be above 28 degrees Celsius, wind shear is around 12 knots, and the environment is decently moist.

Historically, computer models don't do a good job at all when it comes to a non-organized system so some have Invest 94L going west then NW entering the northern Caribbean south of Guadeluope as a Cat 2 hurricane in 5 days while the others push it north missing on the same track as Hurricane Bill. Personally, Bill turned a bit later than I wanted him too but that is my opinion. Once again, the longer this thing stays disorganized, the better chance it has of hitting any of our islands. I am not going to say anything about it's potential track until depression status is reached which shouldn't be too much past early Monday morning.

At it's present latitude, which by the way dropped to 10.6 N from an earlier 11.1 N, and longitude, 42.0 W, and relatively high pressure at 1010 mb, it doesn't seem to pose much of a threat. As a matter of fact, I've noticed plenty of complacency lately. Not good. While we shouldn't be alarmed, we should still be vigilant. This system is a threat. Just a matter of time before it figures out who.

Dave
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1816 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 30, 2009 12:30 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1250 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2009

PRC021-031-033-061-063-127-137-139-301945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0227.090830T1650Z-090830T1945Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GURABO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-
CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
1250 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GURABO...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...
CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 1240 AM AST...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS FALLING ACROSS THE
METROPOLITAN AREA...MAINLY FROM TRUJILLO ALTO WEST
NORTHWESTWARD TO TOA BAJA AND CATANO. EXPECT CONTINUED PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH 345 PM AST...WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES EXPECTED.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN THE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA.
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1817 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 30, 2009 12:59 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1818 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 30, 2009 3:01 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL DRIFT SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND
SETTLE OVER HISPANIOLA BY MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46WEST
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TUTT LOW NOW LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 47 W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DO NOT
DEVELOP...IT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1819 Postby expat2carib » Sun Aug 30, 2009 6:16 pm

Hi Gusty and all other Caribs

MHHHHHHhhhhhhmmmm.

Two models over Guadeloupe and one over Martinique :eek: :eek: I'm in the middle of those two islands. (I know two of them are BAM+ but......)

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Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather

#1820 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 30, 2009 6:41 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE
DECREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
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