ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

Continues to organize

[Dean4Storms]

The models have shown this NW turn for days now only to be wrong again and again, they keep developing it and sending it NW into weaknesses that are not going to affect a disorganized low caught along the ITCZ IMO.

[Derek Ortt]

look at the curved band developing near 14N. I'd expect the center to consolidate near that. The HWRF solution of crossing 50W at 15N may be right but for the wrong reason

[KWT]

however, how far north will this system be once the ridge builds back in? I could see it at 28N then, and that is far enough to send this out to sea

Shouldn't it start gaining some serious latitude soon, then? To my untrained eyes, it still seems to be heading generally westwards, although most of the models show it moving more NW immediately. Is there something there now to turn it?

Most models are still developing this one at 13-15N, take the GFDL which jumps northwards from its starting point then tracks the NW direction a system would take if it was developed.

Aric, ah for sure its just one of those downward pluses but obviously they can delay development which makes a difference in this set-up.

[Aric Dunn]

look at the curved band developing near 14N. I'd expect the center to consolidate near that. The HWRF solution of crossing 50W at 15N may be right but for the wrong reason

yeah and look at the curved banding developing around 12 north .. the argument still favors south. were we have greater convection and convergence as well as vorticity. but it is still elongated a little and spin up a couple vorticies is possible.. .

[DESTRUCTION5]

I still don't think this looks like a developing tropical cyclone..I'm thinking the models are all over because they have no grasp on this thing at all..I am leaning towards a poof in the next 48 hrs..

But this is JMHO ofcourse...

[KWT]

It seems to becoming a little linear again, thats the other thing I'm noticing as well as the convection weakening a little, think it was a little better organised about 6hrs ago but as has been said these things do have phases.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS looks schizophrenic ... at 42 hours it has a weak low approaching the islands but a stronger vortmax to the northeast up near 20N

[jinftl]

Be good to see an example of a system that looked like a developing tropical cyclone.....before it developed into a depression even.....to compare 94L to. Even Katrina was a disorganized wave at some point in her life.....just saying...

I still don't think this looks like a developing tropical cyclone..I'm thinking the models are all over because they have no grasp on this thing at all..I am leaning towards a poof in the next 48 hrs..

But this is JMHO ofcourse...

[Aric Dunn]

one things for sure although its probably a depression i dont see much strengthening in the short term with its current structure. another 12 to 24hrs and we will probably have a good looking TD or A TS ..
right now we have a weak llc and too much potential for multiple vorts to spin up which means its going to take its sweet time. which may or may not be good news for the islands. weaker system farther south but probably wont be able to strengthen much.

[Dean4Storms]

look at the curved band developing near 14N. I'd expect the center to consolidate near that. The HWRF solution of crossing 50W at 15N may be right but for the wrong reason

yeah and look at the curved banding developing around 12 north .. the argument still favors south. were we have greater convection and convergence as well as vorticity. but it is still elongated a little and spin up a couple vorticies is possible.. .

I think it would have to split as the GFS indicates, could have two lows for a time competing with the northern low that Derek mentions winning out and deepening then moving NW!

[KWT]

I still don't think this looks like a developing tropical cyclone..I'm thinking the models are all over because they have no grasp on this thing at all..I am leaning towards a poof in the next 48 hrs..

But this is JMHO ofcourse...

Well of course its something that could happen but its not that bad looking, and besides I'm sure yesterday people thought this was gone at some points, indeed this was about the time yesterday when this system started to improve again.
This doesn't look like its developing right now to me, but no reason why it is going to poof.

I think we do still need to watch the northern part that Derek is mentioning, esp as the Qscat doesn't suggest the circulation is that strong on the southern side.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Be good to see an example of a system that looked like a developing tropical cyclone.....before it developed into a depression even.....to compare 94L to. Even Katrina was a disorganized wave at some point in her life.....just saying...

I still don't think this looks like a developing tropical cyclone..I'm thinking the models are all over because they have no grasp on this thing at all..I am leaning towards a poof in the next 48 hrs..

But this is JMHO ofcourse...

Listen Im far from Frank2 and Im Pro-formation.LOL..Im just not seeing the typical structure and twist to get the ball rolling..I always get suspicious when our best modeling is showing nothing in the form of a storm in the 3-5 day range..

[The Eye Wall]

Doesn't look code red to me.

Center formation *maybe* 13.5 N and 47 W?

[hurricanetrack]

Yeah, that is awful. Time to look at the overall steering pattern for this run from here out I guess. Clearly we see a developing tropical cyclone down in the deep tropics moving at 285 (per NHC models) and the GFS scoots it up north and spreads it out again like butter on toast. That is not good so expect the GFDL and HWRF 12Z models to stink as well. This of course, my own opinion based on what I am seeing in the current GFS output.

[jinftl]

Agree....this doesn't look like it is about to go 'poof'....nor is this rapidly developing. If it had already developed, it would probably be where Bill was at the same longitude

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST OR ABOUT 975 MILES...
1570 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Instead, we have a system almost 3 deg of latitude further south. The non-development of 94L....coupled with its persistence (lack of going 'poof') raises the ante on this one effecting the islands. Most of the time, if we are talking about a hurricane east of 45W or 50W, it is going to be a fish.

I still don't think this looks like a developing tropical cyclone..I'm thinking the models are all over because they have no grasp on this thing at all..I am leaning towards a poof in the next 48 hrs..

But this is JMHO ofcourse...

Well of course its something that could happen but its not that bad looking, and besides I'm sure yesterday people thought this was gone at some points, indeed this was about the time yesterday when this system started to improve again.
This doesn't look like its developing right now to me, but no reason why it is going to poof.

I think we do still need to watch the northern part that Derek is mentioning, esp as the Qscat doesn't suggest the circulation is that strong on the southern side.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC surface analysis has a 1007 mb low.That high is strong at 1031 mbs to the north.



http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

[The Eye Wall]

It is showing good outflow to the north. The bigger circle that is shown, to the untrained eye, could easily be mistaken for the low. But I think that's more of the mid-levels. The red circle looks suspect and may see center form near there at 12.5 to 13 N. Thoughts?

[jinftl]

We will have to agree to disagree on this one....for an invest, this has 'the look'. If you took this image and pasted it into the Gulf, some people would be freaking out on this board!!!

Be good to see an example of a system that looked like a developing tropical cyclone.....before it developed into a depression even.....to compare 94L to. Even Katrina was a disorganized wave at some point in her life.....just saying...

I still don't think this looks like a developing tropical cyclone..I'm thinking the models are all over because they have no grasp on this thing at all..I am leaning towards a poof in the next 48 hrs..

But this is JMHO ofcourse...

Listen Im far from Frank2 and Im Pro-formation.LOL..Im just not seeing the typical structure and twist to get the ball rolling..I always get suspicious when our best modeling is showing nothing in the form of a storm in the 3-5 day range..

[deltadog03]

Yup GFS up to its no good. There is something wrong with the heat transfer/budjet with this model. It just can't keep things together when there is so much going on. BTW wait till this winter, GFS will struggle a ton.