ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[gatorcane]

well all I can say is that it's moving W (about 280) as Deltadog has it above.

I think the models sending it NW don't get what is going on at the moment. They are treating it as if it is at the H5 level which it has not reached yet. Steering is still low-level.

[KWT]

Yeah it is forecasted to slow down though I suspect that is partly due to it developing and the system latching on to the weakness and slowing it right down, whilst lower levels are probably just a little bit quicker I suspect in this case.

[cycloneye]

Derek,if it slows down,then it has the oportunity to organize much better?

[Stormcenter]

Tons of speculation and nothing concrete, That's all we have here and nothing more.
As of matter of fact hasn't it been that way for the most part with 94L? It's pretty sad (or great)
when you think about. We are a week a away from the peak of the season and this is all we have
to track. You gotta love it.

[jinftl]

I guess the questions i would ask to assess the threat down the road woud be: will the system find itself in favorable or unfavorable conditions to develop down the road and where will it be at that time. If it were a hurricane, i agree, it would be a pathetic represntation. (duh) But for an invest, it looks as healthy as any. I don't see significant shear taking place, and it is heading over warmer and warmer water (and soon, increasing TCHP). For those reasons alone, coupled with climatology, development of a td and a ts seem highly possible in the next few days.

If you took this image and pasted it into the Gulf, some people would be freaking out on this board!!!

I don't think that's true at all. If this thing were bearing down on me no matter where I was at I wouldn't be too concerned. Just look at it. Its been that way for days. Its a mess, now, it was a mess yesterday and it will probably stay a mess or even less in the future. It's pretty much just a swirl of clouds with little or no convection.

[KWT]

Yeah that center is quite clear Deltadog, though I have to admit the way the clouds are curving further north does look a little suspect, wouldn't be that shocked if there was another center where others have mentioned.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC tracks it WNW close to northern Leewards,then continues WNW to north of Bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Gustywind]

Seems that Meteo-France Guadeloupe is pretty optimistic for the moment because of in their latest forecast they anticipate for "only a very strong and active twave" crossing Guadeloupe by Tuesday but let's wait and see what could really pan's out from 94L.
Latest

[Gustywind]

The Weather Channel dude said a track possible like Bill or Danny. Not Steve Lyons. So now I know I'm going to get hit.

Really? and the Lesser Antilles? What do you tkink?

[jlauderdal]

Yup GFS up to its no good. There is something wrong with the heat transfer/budjet with this model. It just can't keep things together when there is so much going on. BTW wait till this winter, GFS will struggle a ton.

wonderful, and this is the model of choice by NWS

[gatorcane]

Tons of speculation and nothing concrete, That's all we have here and nothing more.
As of matter of fact hasn't it been that way for the most part with 94L? It's pretty sad (or great)
when you think about. We are a week a away from the peak of the season and this is all we have
to track. You gotta love it.

To be honest it looks like a pretty good contender with a possible threat to the islands.
Not sure what else you are looking for out there?

[Nimbus]

The first burst of convection helped focus the LLC near where Deltadog marked the center. It looks like we will get a second burst in the same area, but the NHC may be upgrading based on convective persistence rather than the obvious closed circulation.

[KWT]

12z CMC briefly strengthens the southern side before about 24hrs time it has the northern side take over. 144hrs shows a weakness present but there is a high pressure cell about to roll out into the Atlantic from the US.

Stormcenter...Andrew once probably into an open wave, Katrina came from a pitiful TD10...most systems have periods where we don't look great but that doesn't mean they can't be watched!

[gatorcane]

12z CMC briefly strengthens the southern side before about 24hrs time it has the northern side take over. 144hrs shows a weakness present but there is a high pressure cell about to roll out into the Atlantic from the US.

Yep that would mean a west bend towards Florida maybe? Too early to say for sure. That big High building in across the Eastern CONUS is interesting to say the least. Maybe 94L sneaks out to sea before the High can build in....its going to come down to timing as to whether Florida is in play here or not. Bahamas could be in play. It's early to say.

[Ivanhater]

12z CMC briefly strengthens the southern side before about 24hrs time it has the northern side take over. 144hrs shows a weakness present but there is a high pressure cell about to roll out into the Atlantic from the US.

Yep that would mean a west bend towards Florida maybe? Too early to say for sure. That big High building in across the Eastern CONUS is interesting to say the least. Maybe 94L sneaks out to sea before the High can build in....its going to come down to timing as to whether Florida is in play here or not. Bahamas could be in play. It's early to say.

Yep Gator, I've been looking at the models sniffing this pattern change off the East coast for a few days now. Instead of a trough hanging off the east coast, we have a building high. This will be important as to just how much latitude this gains in the short term, or where the center decides to consolidate.

[OURAGAN]

Every body was wrong, 94L is much farther west than excepted, may be threat for lesser antilles (Guadeloupe?)

[gatorcane]

Anybody noticing it is starting to gain some lattitude now maybe...maybe more of a WNW movement has resumed?

[KWT]

I don't think the NHC will upgrade just yet, esp as convection is on the wane again, may just wait until recon now I suspect...

[Stormcenter]

Yes I know anything is possible but this is not 1992 or 2005. The conditions have not
been ripe for development for most part in 2009. The clock is ticking.

12z CMC briefly strengthens the southern side before about 24hrs time it has the northern side take over. 144hrs shows a weakness present but there is a high pressure cell about to roll out into the Atlantic from the US.

Stormcenter...Andrew once probably into an open wave, Katrina came from a pitiful TD10...most systems have periods where we don't look great but that doesn't mean they can't be watched!

[KWT]

1992 wasn't ripe either stormcenter...one storm (Andrew obviously!) just so happened to get a brief spell of favorable over the western Atlantic, heck conditions are thus far probably more favorable this year then that year!