ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Ivanhater]

Yes I know anything is possible but this is not 1992 or 2005. The conditions have not
been ripe for development for most part in 2009. The clock is ticking.

12z CMC briefly strengthens the southern side before about 24hrs time it has the northern side take over. 144hrs shows a weakness present but there is a high pressure cell about to roll out into the Atlantic from the US.

Stormcenter...Andrew once probably into an open wave, Katrina came from a pitiful TD10...most systems have periods where we don't look great but that doesn't mean they can't be watched!

We just had a cat 4 last week, and we are almost at the peak. I think you know better.

[Bocadude85]

Yes I know anything is possible but this is not 1992 or 2005. The conditions have not
been ripe for development for most part in 2009. The clock is ticking.

12z CMC briefly strengthens the southern side before about 24hrs time it has the northern side take over. 144hrs shows a weakness present but there is a high pressure cell about to roll out into the Atlantic from the US.

Stormcenter...Andrew once probably into an open wave, Katrina came from a pitiful TD10...most systems have periods where we don't look great but that doesn't mean they can't be watched!

In 1992 I dont think the conditions were the best over all.... was a El Nino year.

[gatorcane]

Even 8 days from now GFS has backed down of the Eastern CONUS trough now in line with ECMWF on building heights along the Eastern seaboard. In fact instead of the usual Low pressure over the Great lakes you see High pressure.

[KWT]

The exact track of this one will be so important, if it doesn't get north of 20N by 60W then the odds of this system recurving at the first port of call probably are reduced quite a bit.

The longer it takes to develop the bigger the risk should be to the US it appears, esp the east coast...

[Gustywind]

Every body was wrong, 94L is much farther west than excepted, may be threat for lesser antilles (Guadeloupe?)

Good reasoning my friend i'm beginning to be STEADILY agree with you , each runs are farther west for the moment. Given this trend 94L will it make it at 13 or even 14N 50W? not sure. The next 12H will give us a better idea on this thing. One word for all my carib friends, continue to monitor closely 94L!

[KWT]

I still suspect that this one will pull out just before the LA to the NW but we shall see, I suspect we will see a large scale stair-stepping occuring once this does develop. IF it develops further north then heads NW/NNW then the weakness Wxman57 and Derek have mentioned around 65-70W will do the job, if it doesn't then risk has got to increase downstream.

Long ole way to go yet though.

[Aric Dunn]

agreed.. but still some elongation to the NE .. multiple vorts are possible..

[Gustywind]

Anybody noticing it is starting to gain some lattitude now maybe...maybe more of a WNW movement has resumed?

Humm... Gatorcane i will be glad to see it right now!!!, that's make enough for us, to close for comfort for the Leewards and NE Leewards sincerely

[Aric Dunn]

Anybody noticing it is starting to gain some lattitude now maybe...maybe more of a WNW movement has resumed?

its seems its just that the tilt of the wave me be shifting a little and convection is also increasing again. I still see 270 or so..

[otowntiger]

12z CMC tracks it WNW close to northern Leewards,then continues WNW to north of Bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

While the 12z CMC has it headed pretty close to the southeast coast (btw on that heading probably SC or GA), but look at the weakness in the high to it's north. It looks like the perfect path to send it north and then northeast from there, possilbly missing the coast altogether. If that run contiuned for another day or so I bet that's what it shows.

[deltadog03]

CMC is kinda a crap shoot on whether its gonna take that weakness or not. The weakness is moving out.

[otowntiger]

CMC is kinda a crap shoot on whether its gonna take that weakness or not. The weakness is moving out.

Thats totally true given all the factors that have to come together. As its been said here many, many times, timing is everything. If the scenario developed as shown by the CMC above the high pressure ridge on the eastern seaboard could squeeze out that weaknes before the system could feell the weakness pushing it back to the west. So there you have it. Anything can happen. But before it does this system needs to get its act together. Right now still not at all impressive.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree Aric, I suspect there is some sort of sharpening of the broad circulation further NE of the circulation which we are watching, will be telling to see if the convection continues to develop further north as the stuff around the circulation weakens.

[deltadog03]

This is the euro from last night....DAY 7 can't go further than that, but you get the idea

[marciacubed]

It seems to be getting a little more organized this afternoon IMO.

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 10:26 GMT le 30 août 2009 — Last Comment: 17:47 GMT le 30 août 2009
Invest 94L and the Lesser Antilles
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1300

Posted by: JeffMasters, 09:51 GMT le 30 août 2009

Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. The convection associated with Invest 94L has intensified, prompting the NHC to issue an early Tropical Weather Outlook to update the situation. Essentially, people in the Lesser Antilles need to start paying attention to the seas and skies. Looking at the computer track models, the set of model solutions are fairly similar to the Saturday model runs. A set of dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS) runs to the NE of the Antilles, while the simpler models (LBAR, BAM family) are more easterly and take 94L over the Antilles. I do not ascribe any significance to the 00Z GFS track following the simpler models over the dynamical models. From my examination of the 00Z GFS run, it looks like the simulated 94L weakens too much, so the automatic vortex tracker picks up another vorticity feature. As for the future of 94L, there is a large area of large wind shear to it's north. It will need to keep it's track at WNW-W for intensification.

[KWT]

I'm very interested in what the 12z shows, the 0z if anything did even more with the high it seems, though it seems a fairly shallow feature.

[cycloneye]

KNHC 301756
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[Derek Ortt]

12z CMC briefly strengthens the southern side before about 24hrs time it has the northern side take over. 144hrs shows a weakness present but there is a high pressure cell about to roll out into the Atlantic from the US.

Yep that would mean a west bend towards Florida maybe? Too early to say for sure. That big High building in across the Eastern CONUS is interesting to say the least. Maybe 94L sneaks out to sea before the High can build in....its going to come down to timing as to whether Florida is in play here or not. Bahamas could be in play. It's early to say.

no bend to Florida from CMC. MAYBE a track toward hat and NE

[KWT]

Yeah Derek, the CMC doesn't really build the high too much but the weakness is far enough away to keep this one on a NW motion.