ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[AtlanticWind]

Too many answers
Not enough questions.


Wait.... Strike that ..... reverse it

['CaneFreak]

the dry air just cannot penetrate the core. Dry air outside may lead to concentric rainbands and repeated EWRCs (see Bill)

I'll have to check my thesis again to see what the 1998-2005 mean environmental RH is for intensifying TCs

it can if it is getting sheared...as this system is from the north...albeit favorable shear (divergence)...the dry air entrainment and shear from the upper low is eating away at this thing's development chances right now...not saying it won't improve once it gets north of the islands but for now...no way...

I dont think it is the mid level shear. The low level center would be decoupled if there is strong shear.

I think it is just the broad nature of the disturbance. These things can take quite a bit of time

I am not saying the mid level shear is too strong...I am saying there is just enough mid level shear to cause mid-level dry air entrainment into this football shaped broad circulation...I agree that it is a broad circulation...that is for sure...

[cycloneye]

Speaking about the size, looks like another member of Bill's family???= HUGE Decent structure, something is maybe cooking steadily?!

With a system this weak and zero evidence of a surface circulation dont rely too heavily on how it looks on sattelite.

It may "look" good but appearances can be decieving. I think all we have here is a weak mid level vortex at best, giving it a circular appearance. The environment around it isnt very conducive at all and im not surprised convection has waned this evening.

George,the high interest from him for this is because he lives in Guadeloupe.

[hurricanetrack]

Nicely put there '57. I think I will take that and go to bed. I assume this thing will still be there in the morning unless Locke moved it to a different area/time

[scogor]

I seem to recall from posts made in earlier years that it's difficult for systems to strengthen when passing so close to South America. Is this one of the factors that may inhibit 94L's development? Or is the "center" sufficiently distant from SA?

[AtlanticWind]

I seem to recall from posts made in earlier years that it's difficult for systems to strengthen when passing so close to South America. Is this one of the factors that may inhibit 94L's development? Or is the "center" sufficiently distant from SA?

Wont get near south america.

[The Eye Wall]

John Hope used to say that if it doesn't develop before the Lesser Antillies, it wasn't going to do so until it reached near the Yucatan. Let the facts be stated unto a candid world (a line from the declaration ) that THIS IS NOT TRUE!

[tgenius]

not sure how much more specific I can get. There is a city of South Miami. You want my exact address, lol[/quote]

hahaha no man.. I work in South Miami..

[expat2carib]

Here on the island of Dominica there are already more than "normal" showers and some thunder here and there.

It's still far away. But I guess by tomorrow late we will get some of the outer of the outer bands.

I'll let this system marinate a little and see what it will do. Too confusing.....too many reflections. It's coming....No it's not.....It's coming.... No it's not

I'll hope it will develope and take the northern shift to have a nice fishing trip.

[george_r_1961]

Speaking about the size, looks like another member of Bill's family???= HUGE Decent structure, something is maybe cooking steadily?!

With a system this weak and zero evidence of a surface circulation dont rely too heavily on how it looks on sattelite.

It may "look" good but appearances can be decieving. I think all we have here is a weak mid level vortex at best, giving it a circular appearance. The environment around it isnt very conducive at all and im not surprised convection has waned this evening.

George,the high interest from him for this is because he lives in Guadeloupe.

I understand that. I was just pointing out that right now it looks alot meaner than it really is.

[Derek Ortt]

John Hope used to say that if it doesn't develop before the Lesser Antillies, it wasn't going to do so until it reached near the Yucatan. Let the facts be stated unto a candid world (a line from the declaration ) that THIS IS NOT TRUE!

That is one statement I laugh myself silly every time I hear.

here are the storms that have formed in the Eastern Caribbean this decade

1. Chantal*
2. Isidore*
3. Claudette
4. Dennis
5. Alpha
6. Gamma
7. Ernesto
8. Noel
9. Fay
10. Gustav
11. Omar

the average for the decade is 1 per year. We also have been having many other storms going bonkers in the eastern Caribbean (Ivan, Emily, Dean for starters)

*storm became a TD east of the Caribbean, dissipated, and regenerated in Eastern Caribbean

[abajan]

So no FL or GOM threat?

That's just the sort of question we were afraid HURRICANELONNY's last post would generate. Look, it's too early to know if 94L will be a threat to any land - even the Lesser Antilles.

This discussion board being what I consider to be the Internet leader on discussions about the tropics, I was just asking a question which should not be interpreted as a question coming from someone who is "-removed-", I am not "-removed-", I was simply asking the question.

My comment was not meant to imply that you were -removed-. I knew you were just asking a question. What I meant was that HURRICANELONNY's post might prematurely raise concerns about 94L striking somewhere.

[jinftl]

What I am seeing with the current model runs...compared to the prior runs below....is less of a spread of tracks and a trend, if it continues, for a growing threat for at least some impact to the extreme ne caribbean and possibly the se bahamas after
current:




prior:

[Gustywind]

Blown Away glad to see that you don't forget our little paradise. Why are you speaking about judging? Are you hurt? Hope no...it's only a board a passion for everybody to discuss the weather. I tkink that we could have our opinion in the big weather family? and be respectfull as usual... Don't we? I appreciate
I know that you're excited during the peak of the season as many, but don't forget to take it easy in the big weather family Stay zen
Nice regards from your friend of Guadeloupe Gustywind

[Evil Jeremy]

I really liked the SFWMD model plots with the LGEM instead of the GFS ensemble. Now the TVCN is all over the place and not in tune with the models that matter.

[jinftl]

That's if it gets into the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico and Hispanola.....now if it passes to the north of those islands, it would be in climatologic real estate for strengthening.

John Hope used to say that if it doesn't develop before the Lesser Antillies, it wasn't going to do so until it reached near the Yucatan. Let the facts be stated unto a candid world (a line from the declaration ) that THIS IS NOT TRUE!

[Blown Away]

Come on, I don't think you want every post to read something like "After the potential impact on our friends in the Caribbean are affected, does the board think 94L will make it to the GOM?" Come on islanders don't be so sensitive, we all care and support the folks when and wherever a storm strikes!

['CaneFreak]

oh and actually, the mid-level dry air problem does not get any better near the islands either...AHHHEMMM...Mid level RHs are running below 25 %....see the skew-T below for TFFR...

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/tffrwindow.html

[Blown Away]

Is that convection wrapping around the circulation center?

[LaBreeze]

I'm guessing most people won't answer about a possible Gulf hit this early on, because they don't want to end up eating crow.

I really doubt it will come here, but that's just me.

I have the same feeling Night Tide.