Caribbean - Central America Weather

[expat2carib]

The BAM+ suite shifted north again. I'll let this marinate a little. Too confusing. Too many reflections...

[msbee]

94 L discussion from crownweather.com

Discussion

Invest 94L Located 950 Miles East Of The Windward Islands:

The overall convection associated with a broad area of low pressure, labeled Invest 94L, has increased overnight and has become better organized. 94L was located about 950 miles east of the Windward Islands this morning. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should pay very close attention to the progress of Invest 94L. 94L was tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 15 mph and this general course is expected to continue for at least the next couple of days.

The computer forecast guidance is not matching up with what is actually happening with 94L. The dynamical models, such as the GFDL, HWRF and NOGAPS models, forecast an immediate turn to the northwest when in fact it is tracking west-northwest. The simple models, such as the BAM and LBAR models, are forecasting a west-northwest course and do not show any turns to the northwest for the next 3 to 5 days. It is interesting to note that the GFS model weakens 94L and hands the energy off to the north causing a poleward turn. The European model, on the other hand, is forecasting a track very close to the northern Lesser Antilles by late this week. It should be noted that the European model has been the most consistent in keeping this system south of 20 North Latitude.

Here are my thoughts: I think the northeastern Caribbean Islands, from Guadeloupe and points north and then west to Puerto Rico, need to keep very close watch on 94L. I am essentially disregarding the dynamical models as the immediate northwest turn is bogus and I am leaning much closer to a blend of the simple BAM and the European model. I strongly suspect that 94L will pass south of the 15 North/50 West benchmark. This benchmark is for the northeast Caribbean Islands. If a storm passes to the south of that benchmark, then the risk to the northeast Caribbean Islands, from Guadeloupe to Puerto Rico, increases dramatically.

As for development and intensification, all indications are that this system will continue to organize today and I fully suspect it will be classified as a tropical depression by sometime tomorrow, if not earlier. The SHIPS and LGEM models forecast 94L to be a hurricane in about 3 days and then a upper end Category 2 hurricane in 5 days. Based on the fact that shear directly to the north of 94L may actually be creating a outflow channel for it and also the fact that 94L is becoming better and better organized with each passing hour, I have every reason to think that this system will steadily intensify this week.

Again, I want to emphasize that all interests in the Lesser Antilles need to keep a very close eye on the progress of this system.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT Monday.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

[Gustywind]

Hi Gusty and all other Caribs

MHHHHHHhhhhhhmmmm.

Two models over Guadeloupe and one over Martinique I'm in the middle of those two islands. (I know two of them are BAM+ but......)

Humm i don't like that sincerely: too close for comfort in Guadeloupe and Dominica too for sure! Msbee watch out!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 302352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N45W TO 8N49W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 11N48W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ELONGATED
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED
AROUND THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 47W-49W..AND TO THE W OF LOW CENTER FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
48W-54W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

[Gustywind]

We should not let our guard down my carib friends: Expat2carib, Msbee, Cycloneye, HUC, Fego, Abajan...and the others

From the weather channel
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

Vigorous Atlantic Tropical low, Kevin Roth, and M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologists, The Weather Channel
Aug. 30, 2009 5:03 pm ET
ATLANTIC

Shower and thunderstorm activity around an area of low pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean has become more organized. If the thunderstorm activity maintains itself a tropical depression could form in the next 24 hours.

The disturbed weather is located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving off to the west-northwest. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor this system for future developments.

Elsewhere it is quiet across the Atlantic Basin.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310104 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
904 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2009

.UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LASTING PAST SUNSET TONIGHT IN
PART DUE TO THE TUTT LOW JUST NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA IN A BAND
AROUND THIS LOW. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
PERHAPS ON THE EAST COAST OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. THE 00Z
SOUNDING CAME IN WITH ALMOST TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN 11 AND 29 THOUSAND FEET. WINDS BELOW THIS
WERE EASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS. ON
MONDAY EXPECT DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTN CONVECTION WITH PSBL ISOLD
TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR...AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MAY RESULT IN TEMPO MVFR CONDS OVR
AND VCNTY OF...TJMZ..AND TJBQ...ALONG WITH BRIEF MTN OBSCURATIONS AT
LEAST TIL 31/2200Z.

&&

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 310207
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1007 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2009

SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS BUT NO PRECIPITATION
WAS NOTED OVER LAND. THE WINDS WERE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 MPH
OR LESS.

PASSING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SOME MAY BRUSH THE
COASTAL AREAS OF ONE OR TWO OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND REACH
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS WILL
AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME AS SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS
OR LESS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

[Gustywind]

[size=200]Looking at AFRICA...[/size]

[expat2carib]

PASSING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SOME MAY BRUSH THE
COASTAL AREAS OF ONE OR TWO OF THE ISLANDS.

That's probably what we have over here right now. http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Not really visible on the radar..... but they are here.

[Gustywind]

PASSING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SOME MAY BRUSH THE
COASTAL AREAS OF ONE OR TWO OF THE ISLANDS.

That's probably what we have over here right now. http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Not really visible on the radar..... but they are here.

Ok glad to see you here my friend .

[Gustywind]

94L

[Gustywind]

Hi my carib friends, looking to our east with 94L is racing for the first time hopefully wnw, but should it be sufficient to spare all the islands...? Let's hope that and keep our fingers crossed!

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 310534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 310556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDS FROM 18N46W TO 7N51W AND A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 13N. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ELONGATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT
THE AREA FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN 44W-55W BUT ARE NOT CONCENTRATED
AROUND THE LOW. HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES WNW 10-15 KT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 310923
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST MON AUG 31 2009

SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR
DETECTED A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AND
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN COASTS OF SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS. THE
WIND WAS EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

PASSING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND SOME MAY BRUSH THE
COASTAL AREAS OF ONE OR TWO OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION AND REACH HISPANIOLA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS
EFFECTS WILL AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME AS SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS
OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

[Gustywind]

Very interresting discussion from San Juan PR
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310830
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST MON AUG 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF PR WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
AND SETTLE OVR HISPANIOLA BY TONIGHT. UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE TROP
ATLC WILL BUILD WWD INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED AND
MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG 50W THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE
WNW OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THU NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW TUTT LOW DRIFTING TO WEST SOUTHWEST WITH
SUBSIDENCE INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY. HAVE TRENDED
POPS DOWNWARD FOR TODAY BUT STILL ANTICIPATING ISOLD/SCT STRONG
CONVECTION OVR WRN PR THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING INCREASES
ON TUE AND HOLDS THROUGH WED AS MID-UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS FROM
THE EAST FURTHER LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES. SFC WINDS TURN MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST SO HAVE LIMIT POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF PR.

FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH FRI IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
TRACK/EVOLUTION ON BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG 50W THIS MORNING.
HAVE FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT/RELIABLE MODEL THIS YEAR AND ALSO WITH
THIS SYSTEM TAKING IT ACROSS THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF PR/USVI OVER
THE PAST FOUR DAYS AS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE. NOGAPS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WHILE GFS/UKMET DO NOT. PER NHC
TWO PRODUCT...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THE FIRST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER
THE ECLIPSE SHOW THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER. GIVEN THAT WE ARE ALMOST AT THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE
SEASON AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY FVRBL CONDITIONS I WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST A NAMED STORM AND NHC IS GIVING IT A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.

THERE IS A GREAT DEAL UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND INTENSITY ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS YESTERDAY. THE
EARLY TRACK NHC MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM ONLY TO ABOUT 61W BY FRI
EVENING WHILE THE 00Z ECWMF SHOWS THE SYSTEM ALMOST TO 70W BY THIS
TIME. THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WHEN COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY AS A SYSTEM THAT IS ALREADY AT 50W WOULD ONLY TAKE ON
AVERAGE A MAXIMUM OF FOUR DAYS TO GET TO THE LONGITUDE OF PR
MOVING AT THE CLIMO RATE OF SPEED OF 10 KNOTS BUT EVEN THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN TOO WHEN IT REACHES 55W. HAVE
ADJUSTED GRIDS THU-FRI TO ADD MORE WX/POPS AND INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST TAF SITES XCPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH TSRA AT JMZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE PR/USVI THU-FRI.

&&

.MARINE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH WED. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU NIGHT ESPECIALLY ATLC WATERS
AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO 8 FT FOR NOW ACROSS
ATLC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 40 30 20 10
STT 86 80 86 80 / 40 30 20 10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

64/64

[Gustywind]

Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 31, 2009 5:43 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

ATLANTIC

Shower and thunderstorm activity near an area of low pressure about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles decreased Sunday evening, and continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. Upper level conditions are favorable for development of this system and it is possible that a tropical depression could form in the next day or two. It is moving to the west-northwest near 15 miles per hour. Interests in the Windward Islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
Elsewhere it is quiet across the Atlantic Basin.

[Gustywind]

Pretty worrying to see that Meteo-France (while the days before the system was heading west, right now more wnw and could miss the islands...but should it verifies first) in their latest weather forecast seem pretty pessimistic about 94L. They mentionned that a very strong and active twave (94L) have very higher chances to be a TD during the next 24h-48h and bring a real deterioration of the weather convectively, showers and tstorms Wednesday in Guadeloupe. They invite us to monitor very closely the next weather forecasts and be vigilant as this strong twave is moving near the Lesser Antilles.
Let's wait and see what could happens with this feature as usual...i will keep your infoirmed as usual with any alerts is in route.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

From a correspondant on the weather of stormcarib.com
Worried now
From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 31 Aug 2009 04:49:19 -0700 (PDT)

After what seems like ages, the "blob" east of us is starting to show signs that it has decided what it's doing. Invest 94L looked very good yesterday in the am and many of us thought we were seeing the further development of a storm. Then after dinner it kinda stopped spinning and looked like it was busting up. The NHC concurred but said that they still felt that it would strengthen and strengthen it did. By early this am it looked extremely impressive and had the CrownWeather.com saying that we here in the Northern Leewards need to prepare for a Tropical Storm. Looking at it now, i think he's right. WE NEED TO PREPARE FOR A TROPICAL STORM OR WORSE. Why wait until you are sure it's gonna hit us right? Anyway, many looking at it think that later today it will be a depression. For some reason it hasn't been named one yet. Sure looks like one. The hurricane models still can't figure out what to do with it though, and i don't think we have seen an invest like this one for a long time. Hard to predict. Stay tuned!


268 725 7263 Cell
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[msbee]

latest discussion from crownweather.com

Invest 94L Located 700 Miles East Of The Windward Islands:

Invest 94L is located about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands early this morning. To me, looking at satellite imagery, observations in the area and other data, it looks like this may be already be a tropical depression and perhaps even a tropical storm. Convection over the last few hours has increased and to me the center of circulation may be located near 14.8 North Latitude, 49.5 West Longitude. Satellite imagery also indicates some decent curved banding and there is good outflow over the system. Invest 94L is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 15 mph.

Many of the specific hurricane models continue to indicate that 94L will intensify this week and be classified Tropical Storm Erika by Tuesday morning and then become a hurricane by about Thursday. Some of the global models like the GFS and UKMET model on the other hand show very little intensification. The reason for the global model forecast is that a trough of low pressure is located north of the Caribbean and east of the Bahamas. This trough is forecast by the global models to shear 94L in a few days. As for the model guidance as a whole, it should be noted that the best performing model thus far has been the LBAR model. These stats can be viewed HERE . So, it is interesting to note that the latest LBAR model forecast shows 94L tracking into the northeast Caribbean in about 60 to 72 hours and then passing south of Puerto Rico in about 4 days or so. Another interesting note to go along with the LBAR model forecast is that the European model forecasts that 94L will track into the extreme northeast Caribbean on Wednesday and pass just north of Puerto Rico late Thursday before tracking into the southern Bahamas this weekend.

So, at this point, I think we will see 94L classified as at least a tropical depression today. I would be completely shocked if it is not classified. After that, intensification to Tropical Storm Erika seems likely sometime on Tuesday. After that, the storm's future will depend on its track. I think if this system tracks to the north of the Lesser Antilles then it may be sheared apart and eventually dissipate; however, if 94L/Erika tracks into the northeast Caribbean like the LBAR and European models are suggesting, then there may be less shear and this may pose an eventual threat to the Bahamas and the United States. It should be noted that the latest European model forecast shows 94L/Erika tracking from the southern Bahamas to near the coast of Florida next Monday or next Tuesday and then be located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in 10 days or next Wednesday.

I want to point out that the European model has been consistent on a west-northwest course for the next 5 to 6 days and that a ridge of high pressure will build over the western Atlantic late this week into this upcoming Labor Day weekend. So, I am inclined to disregard to notion that this system will curve north and northeast out into the Atlantic and near Bermuda. Yes, the European model does not forecast very much development, however, it has trended towards a more organized system and now features a closed low pressure system near the Leeward Islands around the middle of this week. So, bottom line is that if 94L/Erika is to emerge in the Bahamas or even the southeast Gulf of Mexico on the other side of the trough of low pressure north of the Caribbean, then the chances of development and intensification would increase big time.

The greatest threat from future Tropical Storm Erika is in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. All interests in these areas should pay very close attention to the progress of this developing system. At this point, the effects from this storm will be felt in the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, the Virgin Islands on Wednesday night and possibly Puerto Rico on Thursday. So, if you are in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, please be aware that at the very least tropical storm force winds will be affecting you within the next 48 to 60 hours. Whether this system affects the Bahamas or the southeastern United States is a huge unknown, however, there is plenty of time to watch this system and see what it does or even does not do.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT Tuesday.