SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[weatherguy425]

I guess I'm one of the lucky ones... I've gotten rain for atleast the past three days!

[jasons2k]

Seems like an awful lot of coincidence...not just this year, though. I live closer to the Bay and wonder if that has anything to do with it. The other side of town...4-6 miles farther inland seem to get rain all the time. Atmosphere related at all? Another interesting thing is that storm cells that come across the Bay from Beaumont area turn and go SE of me. Just weird.

In your case, yes, the proximity to the bay has a lot to do with it.

Watch the seabreeze on the radar loop. Right along the coast, in many places the seabreeze front has already pushed inland before storms start forming. In that case, you are left high and dry. It is common in the summer.

This is one reason why the avg. annual rainfall rates just along the Florida Beaches are lower than inland areas down the peninsula.

But for places further inland like me, it's just a coincidence that will even-out eventually (hopefully).

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff for the 'cactus forum'...

Incoming frontal boundary producing heavy rainfall over deep east TX this morning.

NW to SE linear MCS has developed from NW of Lake Charles to near Huntsville. Doppler radar out of Fort Polk, LA and HGX show rainfall upwards of 6-8 inches over Jasper and Newtown Counties. LCH radar is running warm and has precip. estimates back to Tuesday so for comparison purposes will go with Fort Polk and League City.

Batch of convection that moved across our western and southwestern counties this morning has now dissipated. Mid to high level deck is clearly noted across much of the region and this will help to reduce morning heating. On the synoptic scale a large well defined upper low is moving E out of the lower MS valley while the upper level winds over SE TX are becoming increasingly divergent as the upper low moves eastward and a ridge builds over the SW US. This combined with shortwaves in the flow aloft and the weak front approaching from the north will set the stage for numerous showers and thunderstorms. Interest is growing in the potential for cell training in NW to SE bands as noted over E TX this morning and this would align parallel to the upper level flow. Additionally, deep E TX convective complex may be in the process of generating a southwestward moving cold pool which could help build the complex SW over time.

The air mass is moist and unstable and as noted this morning capable for some hefty rainfall totals in a short period of time. Will have to watch for accumulated rainfall totals today into tonight even with dry grounds as such rainfall in an urban setting would cause some issues.

Will stall the front across the area on Saturday with moisture remaining high we should see another round of thunderstorms. Same thing for Sunday although moisture levels begin to decrease by the afternoon hours. Deep ENE flow sets up early next week allowing a very dry air mass over the SE US to move westward into SE TX. At the same time very rich tropical moisture surges into the southern Gulf of Mexico and awaits the high over the SE US to push eastward opening the door for it to move northward. For now will keep the moisture at bay until Thursday at the earliest and then surge it northward Friday into next weekend which may shape up being fairly active.

[Yankeegirl]

Well I was going to go to the drive in tonight, but its prolly going to rain, since I have plans! Doesn't it always happen that way??? And of course they are playing the Time Travelers Wife!! I think it rained here overnight, when I took my daughter to the bus this morning, the car was wet!

[Flyinman]

I am watching all the rain to our North and now developig east of I-45. I sure hope we can get in on some of the rain next week. Looks like it may be a wet Labor day.

[Yankeegirl]

Rain? What rain? Is there rain on the way?

[jasons2k]

I don't want to jinx it, but I feel a little optimistic about my chances for rain later today & tonight. So far the seabreeze is to my south and it's still hot/unstable here with nothing around yet to mess it up for anything coming down from the NW...and some storms are now showing-up near Lake Conroe (NW of there) & towards Huntsville/Madisonville moving S & SE...

[southerngale]

I got rain for a little while this afternoon. I don't know exactly how long, but probably somewhere between 30 minutes to an hour. To let you know how light it was, I just checked my rain gauge. It was just above the 0. lol Not even to that first little line. Well, the pavement got a little wet at the time, but if you weren't around to see it, you wouldn't know it happened. oooh, drought buster!

*heads to the cactus forum*

[jasons2k]

I hope the storms moving down I-45 makre it here before the seabreeze or any outflows from the storms over Houston...

[jasons2k]

Hmm...seabreeze from south, outflow from north, and ourflow from west all three about to collide in my general vicinity.

[jasons2k]

Once again, skipped right over me. Massive storm formed to my south from the outflow but the storms moving in from the north collapsed just as they got here. Wash, rinse, repeat.

[jasons2k]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
814 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 812 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GALENA PARK...AND MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO SHELDON...JACINTO CITY...CLOVERLEAF AND CHANNELVIEW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OR DAMAGE
BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[jasons2k]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
836 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 833 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELLINGTON FIELD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO KEMAH BOARDWALK...JOHNSON SPACE CENTER...WEBSTER...
TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...SOUTH HOUSTON...NASSAU BAY...LEAGUE CITY...LA
PORTE...KEMAH...EL LAGO...DICKINSON...DEER PARK...CLEAR LAKE SHORES
AND BACLIFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WERE REPORTED IN EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY
WITH THIS STORM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...SEEK SAFE SHELTER AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[vbhoutex]

A tornado warning is in effect for Galveston at this time. Webcams and a trained spotter have confirmed that a waterspout came ashore near 35th street. Radar currently shows a possible hook echo near the Gulf Freeway and 61st ST. Are there any Galveston members who can confirm this activity?

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like Galveston is getting in on some action!! They are the lucky ones....

[vbhoutex]

A tornado warning is in effect for Galveston at this time. Webcams and a trained spotter have confirmed that a waterspout came ashore near 35th street. Radar currently shows a possible hook echo near the Gulf Freeway and 61st ST. Are there any Galveston members who can confirm this activity?

Just stated on channel 13 that indeed there was a small tornado with fortunately so far only slight damage confirmed. From what the OCM said it was an EF0 with the highest wind confirmed so far at 59 mph.

[Yankeegirl]

I am totally stunned, I can see the lightning to my south from the storms out in Galveston!! How crazy is that??

[srainhoutx]

A lot of discussion in the "local forum" last night concerning the waterspout/tornado in Galveston. Morning e-mail from Jeff concerning Jimena, cool front, and 94L as well...

Highly unusual upper air pattern in place for late August.

Weak cool front lying near the coast this morning has been the area of active weather overnight. First was the waterspout that made landfall over Galveston Island around 1000pm Sunday evening producing damage along the seawall between 33rd and 25th streets. 59mph wind gust was also reported at the Galveston ASOS site at the airport. Around 300am this morning storms blew up over southern Fort Bend and NW Brazoria counties dropping between 1-2 inches of rainfall. As this was going on, up to the north much drier air mass has moved into the region with refreshing lows in the 60’s this morning and dewpoints in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s adding a slight taste of fall and a well deserved break from the record summer heat of 2009.

Water vapor loops show impressive eastern US trough for late August with an active sub-tropical jet stream pulling NE from Baja across south TX up the US east coast (El Nino anyone??). Moisture associated with now 145mph category 4 EPAC Hurricane Jimena is entrained in this jet and pouring NE in a pattern more likely in late September or October. Jimena is currently moving NW and taking aim at southern Baja where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. Latest guidance has shifted eastward overnight and indicates a direct hit of a major hurricane near or just north of Cabo San Lucas with tremendous moisture advection north and eastward into the SW US and SW/W TX. Some of the latest guidance still has a piece of the hurricane becoming entrained in the upper flow over the SW US and pushing into W TX toward this weekend.

Anyhow moisture flowing in the mid and upper levels from Jimena along with weak disturbances in the sub-tropical jet stream will keep at least a slight chance of storms for the coastal and first inland tier counties today. Best rain chances are down around Matagorda Bay where deepest moisture resides and this area is closest to the core of the sub-tropical jet. Additionally, thick cirrus shield in SW flow should overspread the region helping keep temperatures closer to 90-94 instead of 100.

Dry air advects into the region from the east nearly all weak with active sub-tropical jet overhead. Moisture levels are dry near the surface so only a small chance of rainfall near the coast. Moisture begins to deepen Friday as high pressure moves toward the US east coast allowing more of a low level southerly flow to develop. At the same time the remains of Jimena and a developing SW US trough may come to play over a portion of TX for the Labor Day weekend.

94L:

Strong tropical wave/ broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight. While convection has been weak of late an impressive explosion of thunderstorms near the broad circulation overnight suggest the system is better organized and may become a tropical depression in the next 12 -24 hours. The system appears to be moving toward the WNW and this motion should continue. Model track guidance is in reasonable agreement on a general WNW to NE track for the next 5 days keeping the system just north of the Leeward Islands. There after a large scale trough along the US east coast would likely pick up the system.

[Duddy]

At least there was some cloud cover today to bring down the heat. I can't remember a summer this hot before.

[srainhoutx]

Moning e-mail from Jeff...

Thick cirrus continues to advance into the region from Jimena now approaching Baja as a 150mph category 4. The small eye of the hurricane should pass just west of Cabo San Lucas later today with that area going through the eastern eyewall. Extensive damage from storm surge/wave action/wind is likely along much of the southern Baja coast. Yesterday’s recon flight into Jimena found a very intense hurricane with maximum flight level winds of 149kts (171mph) at 700mb. A dropsonde recorded 128kts (147mph) in the NW eyewall about 40 feet above the sea surface. Another dropsonde recorded 166kts (191mph) in the NE eyewall at 850mph. First pass through the eye found a 936mb pressure with the second pass showing 931mb…fairly impressive pressure fall.



IR Loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t8/loop-avn.html


Locally:



Biggest interest is how thick the cirrus become from Jimena blow off and what to do with the remains of Jimena after her Mexican landfall. Track guidance has shifted right or eastward in the longer ranges allowing he system to become entrained into an approaching trough in the PAC NW by this weekend. Upper level flow over TX will gradually turn more WNW to NW with time allowing short waves to enter from the Rockies. Low level moisture will also return toward the end of the week as the weak front south of the coast washes out. PWS will rise by Friday and potential set up for active NW flow MCS activity into SE TX. May see even greater moisture as final remains of Jimena cross some portion of TX. Anyhow rain chances will be going up Friday through the weekend, but until then dry weather will prevail except around Matagorda Bay.



94L:



Fairly impressive looking system convectively speaking this morning with a persist large mass of thunderstorms. However looks can sometimes be misleading. Satellite wind data suggest the system does not have a closed circulation and the broad area of low pressure is west of all the deep convection. Additionally, the Barbados sounding showed SW wind shear that is likely having some impact on the system. IF the system can close off it would likely be upgraded to a TD or even a TS given numerous 35-40kt winds observed north of the broad low. Track guidance indicates a general WNW track for the next several days.