ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[deltadog03]

I think this is pretty dang close.

[BensonTCwatcher]

How much of this pseudo development then is credited to the anti-cyclonic flow aloft even in the sheared environment overall? I would think that overall with the dry air and shear this would present this well or convect as much as it now.

[tpr1967]

I'll admit it has pretty nice inflow.

[Aric Dunn]

I think this is pretty dang close.

Agreed..

its has a closed wind field .. the northerly components to the wind are way far west of the large convective blob probably near that leading area of convection about 55 to 56 west, since the circulation is so broad.

[vbhoutex]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

Well, this really does have the "look"

Fortrunately or unfortunately, depending on your point of view, looks don't make it happen. "Can't always judge a book by its' cover."

[tailgater]

Pressure at the buoy just west of the center has risen another 1/2 millibar in the past hour, and still has a NE wind 5 kts. Not a sign of a developing system.

Rising in the short term but it dropped nearly 3.0 mb since yesterday

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

Well, this really does have the "look"

Fortrunately or unfortunately, depending on your point of view, looks don't make it happen. "Can't always judge a book by its' cover."

True,but the Sat. presentation often indicates devolepment, good chance 75 percent or more this will be at tropical cyclone soon.

[Aric Dunn]

the small upper high over the past 6 to 10 hours has been moving with the deep area of convection but the system seems to be moving ever so slight faster than the upper low/shear axis. if it were to slow down than they may move more in tandem and would allow less shear. But that does not appear to happening as of yet.

[KWT]

Yeah its clearly not that far away from being closed off but it appears its just a little bit short with regards to northerly winds, which would be on the side that is being impeded on by the shear I take it...

[deltadog03]

12z NAM moves the upper anti-cyclone with 94L as it heads just north of the islands.

[Aric Dunn]

would have to say that a west motion will be likely today as the ridge to north seems to have strengthened a little today.
so islands will probably end up with a TD or weak depression tomorrow.
also will be passing through the Herbert Box.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yes, the storm relative shear is low over the main convection, which I think has taken over as the vort center. The westward vort is weakening. I agree that the faster it moves in the short term there is no chance of development. If it slows relative the ULL induced shear, it may have a shot at development.

[AtlanticWind]

Gfdl loses the vortex right away , but if you follow the low pressure on the run it takes just north of cuba , dunno if that means anything.

[KWT]

Yeah Aric you can see the shear pushing on the western side of the system already, the Upper level high is starting to fall behind the system which is probably why many models aren't really doing much with this one. As has been mentioned this needs to slow down a little further if its not to face 30-40kts of shear soon...and probably be blown apart.

[HURAKAN]

Another FAY. NO!!!!!

[OuterBanker]

Geeze, went away again this weekend so haven't looked in awhile. What a beautiful blob. Looks better than Danny ever did. But I gather from the conversation that there's no low level structure and really bad upper shear.

[KWT]

Wouldn't surprise me if this does end up like Fay, in many ways it already has acted similar, the relocation was exactly in the same spot as Fay did FWIW

The upper high looks quite strong right now, so will probably move to the WNW in the next 24hrs.

[Frank2]

According to the satellite derived wind barbs, it's still just a wave:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

click on all three HDW boxes to view...

[Bocadude85]

According to the satellite derived wind barbs, it's still just a wave:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

click on all three HDW boxes to view...

Yea does not look that great at the moment.

[Tropics Guy]

Sure looks better than TS Danny ever was, based on satelite presentation it is close to being a TD, but of course a closed LLC will have to be verified before they upgrade., IMO think they'll upgrade at 5p or 11p today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

TG