EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[RL3AO]

Not sure why they're not descending yet ...

Probably because they are over Central Mexico and don't want to crash into a mountain.

Huh?? They've been over the Pacific for three sets now ...

Anyway, they're descending now.

Yeah. The GE program wasn't updating.

[x-y-no]

URPN15 KNHC 311732
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 33 20090831
172300 1738N 10808W 6971 03120 0027 +092 +007 189052 053 036 005 03
172330 1739N 10810W 6968 03121 0033 +083 +008 191055 056 036 007 00
172400 1740N 10812W 6965 03120 0007 +101 +006 191056 057 039 005 00
172430 1741N 10813W 6973 03104 0026 +082 +005 189056 058 048 019 00
172500 1743N 10815W 6976 03099 0038 +068 +005 197056 061 049 024 00
172530 1744N 10816W 6964 03106 0027 +071 +004 199057 059 046 015 00
172600 1745N 10818W 6969 03098 0017 +076 +004 196057 058 047 013 00
172630 1746N 10820W 6970 03093 0008 +080 +002 199058 059 045 009 00
172700 1747N 10821W 6961 03096 0004 +077 +002 204060 062 049 015 00
172730 1748N 10823W 6968 03077 0000 +076 +002 203057 059 053 024 00
172800 1749N 10824W 6973 03065 9984 +082 +004 210058 061 056 021 00
172830 1750N 10826W 6975 03059 9978 +080 +006 208059 060 057 021 00
172900 1751N 10827W 6968 03060 9954 +093 +008 204061 063 056 010 00
172930 1752N 10829W 6967 03055 9940 +098 +009 201066 067 058 010 00
173000 1753N 10830W 6969 03042 9935 +093 +010 199069 070 059 011 00
173030 1755N 10832W 6971 03027 9908 +103 +011 203073 075 058 006 00
173100 1756N 10834W 6971 03014 9894 +102 +012 202077 078 059 007 00
173130 1757N 10835W 6971 02997 9890 +089 +014 201081 084 065 012 00
173200 1758N 10837W 6972 02971 9866 +089 +016 201088 090 070 010 00
173230 1759N 10838W 6973 02947 9833 +092 +017 202092 094 074 008 00
$$
;

[x-y-no]

URPN15 KNHC 311742
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 34 20090831
173300 1800N 10840W 6965 02924 9774 +113 +017 202098 100 080 007 00
173330 1801N 10841W 6972 02876 9733 +110 +018 202108 111 091 007 00
173400 1802N 10843W 6961 02829 9654 +121 +021 202119 124 104 014 00
173430 1803N 10844W 6961 02745 9563 +122 +025 202118 127 114 019 00
173500 1804N 10846W 6987 02640 9464 +144 +031 201079 094 109 017 03
173530 1805N 10847W 6962 02623 9409 +149 +037 197047 055 062 006 03
173600 1806N 10849W 6974 02587 9382 +152 +046 187021 028 039 006 03
173630 1806N 10851W 6973 02578 9370 +154 +055 202003 008 033 005 03
173700 1806N 10853W 6967 02583 9358 +164 +064 355010 014 033 006 03
173730 1807N 10855W 6965 02589 9357 +171 +073 009026 031 999 999 03
173800 1808N 10856W 6970 02603 9380 +163 +082 021046 054 076 006 03
173830 1809N 10857W 6965 02632 9417 +151 +090 025071 080 121 007 03
173900 1810N 10858W 6938 02699 9506 +104 +097 028113 130 129 019 03
173930 1811N 10859W 7016 02700 9604 +083 +083 032131 135 114 042 03
174000 1812N 10900W 6949 02809 9661 +078 +078 037123 127 105 027 03
174030 1813N 10901W 6957 02853 9710 +088 +073 039114 116 100 023 00
174100 1814N 10902W 6969 02878 9751 +090 +063 042107 110 095 015 00
174130 1815N 10903W 6967 02918 9781 +099 +055 045101 103 087 008 00
174200 1816N 10904W 6972 02936 9806 +103 +050 048096 097 080 006 00
174230 1817N 10905W 6964 02968 9836 +098 +045 051093 096 076 006 00
$$
;

135 knots flight

[CrazyC83]

135 kt FL, 129 kt SFMR in NW quad found...and 127 kt FL, 114 kt SFMR in SE quad (a weak spot usually)! Pressure way down in the 930s too.

Given that the NE quad has not yet been sampled, I'd go with 130 kt for an intensity. I believe this was a Cat 5 yesterday - probably around 145 kt at peak with a pressure around 925mb.

[Derek Ortt]

129 surface

[x-y-no]

URPN15 KNHC 311753
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 35 20090831
174300 1818N 10907W 6965 02986 9862 +095 +042 049088 090 071 010 00
174330 1820N 10908W 6967 03002 9891 +086 +040 050082 086 069 012 00
174400 1821N 10909W 6969 03011 9877 +111 +038 052077 078 065 009 00
174430 1822N 10910W 6963 03031 9894 +110 +035 054074 074 062 005 00
174500 1823N 10912W 6975 03027 9907 +108 +034 055074 075 062 006 00
174530 1825N 10913W 6965 03049 9933 +096 +034 056071 074 059 006 00
174600 1826N 10914W 6967 03054 9926 +107 +036 055068 069 057 005 00
174630 1827N 10916W 6969 03060 9941 +103 +036 058067 068 056 005 00
174700 1829N 10917W 6969 03069 9950 +102 +038 059064 065 056 004 00
174730 1830N 10918W 6970 03072 9961 +099 +039 060061 062 054 003 00
174800 1831N 10920W 6966 03082 9967 +097 +041 059061 062 053 004 00
174830 1833N 10921W 6965 03088 9980 +091 +041 059062 062 052 006 00
174900 1834N 10922W 6968 03090 0006 +074 +041 058060 063 054 012 00
174930 1835N 10924W 6971 03088 0005 +076 +040 061061 063 056 008 00
175000 1837N 10925W 6965 03100 0003 +085 +036 062059 061 055 008 00
175030 1838N 10926W 6971 03099 9990 +100 +034 063060 061 054 005 00
175100 1839N 10928W 6970 03103 9992 +102 +032 063062 064 053 004 00
175130 1841N 10929W 6970 03106 9995 +102 +031 065061 063 052 004 00
175200 1842N 10930W 6970 03108 0002 +100 +031 065057 059 052 004 00
175230 1843N 10932W 6967 03117 0011 +096 +032 065054 055 051 003 00
$$
;

[x-y-no]

Very small storm.

[craptacular]

129 surface

That is flagged, though, correct? They had a 114 that wasn't flagged on the approach to the center.

Also, unless I'm forgetting an adjustment factor (it's been a while since I followed this), the lowest pressure was under 936. They've been estimating 940 for a while, but I guess we'll wait to see the VDM.

[CrazyC83]

Advisory increases the intensity to 150 mph, with a pressure of 936mb.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JIMENA STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND
NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST OR ABOUT 340
MILES...545 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS 936 MB...27.63 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.1N 108.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[x-y-no]

URPN12 KNHC 311758
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP132009
A. 31/17:36:30Z
B. 18 deg 06 min N
108 deg 51 min W
C. 700 mb 2548 m
D. 114 kt
E. 116 deg 6 nm
F. 201 deg 128 kt
G. 118 deg 7 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 11 C / 3043 m
J. 17 C / 3044 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
P. AF307 0113E JIMENA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 128 KT SE QUAD 17:34:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 135 KT NW QUAD 17:39:20Z
;

[CrazyC83]

Could they find Cat 5 winds in the NE quad? Although I still do think it was stronger yesterday...

[HURAKAN]

I think Jimena will be upgraded to Cat. 5 in the post-season reports. There is no question, based on satellite images, that Jimena was stronger yesterday.

[RL3AO]

UZPN13 KNHC 311759
XXAA 81188 99181 71089 04788 99936 26603 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92102 25800 13003 85847 22608 14503 70527 16258 88999 77999
31313 09608 81736
61616 AF307 0113E JIMENA OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1811N10886W 1740 LST WND 012 MBL WND 13004 AEV 2080
0 DLM WND 13003 934768 WL150 13503 088 REL 1811N10886W 173643 SPG
1811N10886W 174007 =
XXBB 81188 99181 71089 04788 00936 26603 11850 22608 22733 17011
33708 17449 44697 15860
21212 00936 ///// 11934 12503 22850 14503 33799 10510 44787 03001
55784 10516 66780 11501 77773 29014 88770 28002 99697 33005
31313 09608 81736
61616 AF307 0113E JIMENA OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1811N10886W 1740 LST WND 012 MBL WND 13004 AEV 2080
0 DLM WND 13003 934768 WL150 13503 088 REL 1811N10886W 173643 SPG
1811N10886W 174007 =
;

UZPN13 KNHC 311758
XXAA 81187 99181 71088 04788 99948 25400 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92216 24200 13639 85958 21400 16122 70631 15258 20099 88999 77999
31313 09608 81734
61616 AF307 0113E JIMENA OB 12
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1820N10879W 1739 LST WND 020 MBL WND 13633
AEV 20800 DLM WND 16608 945696 WL150 12142 090 REL 1806N10876W 17
3451 SPG 1820N10878W 173929 =
XXBB 81188 99181 71088 04788 00948 25400 11850 21400 22734 16205
33710 16222 44704 16850 55696 13461
21212 00948 ///// 11945 11626 22941 11647 33925 13639 44919 14140
55911 14120 66902 14627 77893 14624 88870 15628 99864 15623 11850
16122 22696 20094
31313 09608 81734
61616 AF307 0113E JIMENA OB 12
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 1820N10879W 1739 LST WND 020 MBL WND 13633
AEV 20800 DLM WND 16608 945696 WL150 12142 090 REL 1806N10876W 17
3451 SPG 1820N10878W 173929 =
;

Last 150m = 142kt
MBL = 133kt

[x-y-no]

URPN15 KNHC 311805
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 36 20090831
175300 1845N 10933W 6969 03116 0012 +098 +032 065054 054 050 003 00
175330 1846N 10935W 6968 03121 0017 +096 +034 065054 055 049 004 00
175400 1847N 10936W 6966 03126 0020 +095 +036 063051 051 049 003 00
175430 1849N 10937W 6971 03122 0029 +090 +037 063051 052 049 003 00
175500 1850N 10939W 6967 03128 0029 +092 +038 059049 050 048 003 00
175530 1851N 10940W 6968 03131 0038 +087 +038 061050 050 046 008 00
175600 1853N 10941W 6970 03131 0043 +085 +038 059049 050 048 008 00
175630 1854N 10943W 6968 03134 0040 +089 +035 058047 048 043 008 00
175700 1855N 10944W 6969 03133 0044 +087 +033 057049 050 045 008 00
175730 1857N 10945W 6969 03134 0044 +087 +031 059049 049 050 010 00
175800 1858N 10947W 6967 03139 0057 +078 +029 063049 050 050 009 00
175830 1859N 10948W 6970 03136 0074 +067 +027 059051 053 050 012 00
175900 1900N 10949W 6972 03134 0055 +083 +026 058048 048 049 009 00
175930 1902N 10951W 6971 03137 0064 +078 +025 056045 046 051 016 00
180000 1903N 10952W 6968 03144 0072 +072 +025 049051 057 054 018 00
180030 1904N 10953W 6970 03137 0072 +069 +027 053046 051 053 020 00
180100 1906N 10955W 6965 03149 0077 +070 +028 048052 055 054 016 00
180130 1907N 10956W 6969 03143 0083 +065 +028 046049 052 052 016 00
180200 1908N 10957W 6974 03140 0075 +074 +027 047045 046 051 012 00
180230 1909N 10959W 6970 03149 0068 +082 +026 051044 047 049 009 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

08/30 1700Z:




08/31 1600Z:



If the bottom picture is 150 mph, you know that the top picture shows a hurricane at least 6 mph stronger!

[KWT]

Yeah clearly was a category-5 yesterday with that pinhole eye, hopefully post season they will upgrade it to its rightful category-5, as this looks far less impressive then it did yesterday IMO.

[x-y-no]

I think someone fell asleep ... this set is real late.

[craptacular]

FYI, this was the picture at 1730Z, which was about when the recon flight found the center:


To me, at least, it looks a little better than the 1600Z picture HURAKAN posted above, but certainly not as good as the one from yesterday.

[neospaceblue]

IMHO, I believe this has been underestimated since Saturday morning, and was probably a Category 3 at least 12 hours before it was officially upgraded.