EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[Sanibel]

Woah!

[x-y-no]

URPN15 KNHC 311952
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 47 20090831
194300 1921N 10754W 6964 03153 0028 +105 +097 147056 057 036 002 00
194330 1922N 10752W 6966 03151 0029 +105 +097 148056 056 037 003 03
194400 1924N 10750W 6972 03147 0034 +102 +097 146057 057 031 003 03
194430 1926N 10749W 6976 03140 0036 +100 +098 143055 057 036 002 03
194500 1927N 10748W 6963 03154 0034 +099 +098 144052 053 036 002 03
194530 1929N 10747W 6970 03145 0033 +100 +096 144051 052 036 003 00
194600 1930N 10746W 6963 03154 0027 +105 +094 142050 050 037 002 00
194630 1931N 10744W 6970 03145 0027 +106 +093 143050 051 040 002 00
194700 1933N 10743W 6965 03150 0045 +091 +091 141049 050 041 008 00
194730 1934N 10741W 6980 03138 0042 +097 +093 144046 048 038 008 00
194800 1935N 10740W 6963 03153 0035 +100 +088 148047 048 035 004 00
194830 1936N 10739W 6970 03149 0041 +097 +085 147051 052 039 006 00
194900 1937N 10737W 6963 03158 0039 +100 +083 148053 055 048 009 03
194930 1938N 10736W 6960 03160 0062 +077 +077 140051 059 048 019 03
195000 1939N 10734W 6962 03155 0063 +074 +074 133053 056 046 016 00
195030 1939N 10732W 6990 03117 0080 +064 +064 128058 061 042 023 00
195100 1940N 10731W 6936 03190 0076 +073 +068 135058 062 047 021 00
195130 1941N 10730W 6977 03138 0079 +072 +062 142053 055 043 020 00
195200 1941N 10728W 6967 03150 0084 +067 +057 141050 052 043 013 00
195230 1942N 10726W 6965 03158 0057 +091 +051 143048 048 043 008 00
$$
;

[bombarderoazul]

Amazing! if it's not a category 5 right now, it was definetely a category 5 yesterday.

[x-y-no]

Heading home.


URPN15 KNHC 312002
AF307 0113E JIMENA HDOB 48 20090831
195300 1943N 10725W 6970 03153 0061 +090 +047 138048 050 043 008 03
195330 1943N 10723W 6943 03187 0079 +078 +044 138047 051 046 011 00
195400 1944N 10722W 6978 03142 0053 +096 +042 140047 048 045 006 00
195430 1945N 10720W 6961 03167 0055 +097 +041 143046 048 043 005 00
195500 1946N 10719W 6964 03162 0053 +095 +042 144045 046 040 005 00
195530 1946N 10717W 6788 03361 0039 +084 +043 147047 048 040 005 03
195600 1947N 10715W 6553 03653 0039 +065 +044 150047 049 041 004 03
195630 1946N 10714W 6326 03943 0051 +039 +039 152049 052 040 005 03
195700 1947N 10712W 6103 04235 0040 +028 +028 154051 053 037 003 00
195730 1947N 10710W 5888 04518 0009 +022 +022 153050 052 039 003 00
195800 1947N 10708W 5688 04800 9990 +004 +999 153046 048 039 003 05
195830 1948N 10706W 5518 05044 9990 -008 +999 154048 049 041 003 01
195900 1949N 10704W 5343 05303 0225 -019 +999 151048 049 040 002 01
195930 1949N 10703W 5271 05429 0244 -025 +999 153048 049 037 003 01
200000 1950N 10701W 5267 05437 0249 -028 +999 154047 047 037 004 01
200030 1951N 10658W 5267 05439 0253 -030 +999 155048 048 038 003 01
200100 1952N 10656W 5282 05418 0253 -029 +999 157050 051 037 003 01
200130 1953N 10654W 5272 05432 0252 -030 +999 158049 049 037 003 01
200200 1954N 10651W 5272 05432 0252 -030 +999 158048 049 038 004 01
200230 1955N 10649W 5270 05437 0253 -030 +999 155048 048 038 004 01
$$
;

[craptacular]

Just in case you stopped looking when they ascended:

URPN12 KNHC 312004
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP132009
A. 31/19:18:30Z
B. 18 deg 17 min N
109 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2504 m
D. 125 kt
E. 196 deg 5 nm
F. 285 deg 118 kt
G. 199 deg 5 nm
H. 931 mb
I. 12 C / 3046 m
J. 20 C / 3024 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0113E JIMENA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 149 KT NE QUAD 19:21:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 149 KT NE QUAD 19:21:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WND 132 KTS NE QUAD 19:20:20 Z
;

[RL3AO]

000
UZPN13 KNHC 312005
XXAA 81197 99184 71089 04788 99936 25800 03627 00/// ///// /////
92106 24200 05146 85894 222// 06666 70494 102// 13615 88999 77999
31313 09608 81922
61616 AF307 0113E JIMENA OB 19
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1843N10892W 1923 AEV 20800 DLM WND 06156 93
6840 WL150 04637 077 REL 1844N10890W 192246 SPG 1839N10908W 19232
2 =
XXBB 81198 99184 71089 04788 00936 25800 11921 23600 22850 222//
33696 098//
21212 00936 03627 11932 04125 22928 04648 33927 04650 44923 05142
55908 05658 66850 06666 77696 13616
31313 09608 81922
61616 AF307 0113E JIMENA OB 19
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1843N10892W 1923 AEV 20800 DLM WND 06156 93
6840 WL150 04637 077 REL 1844N10890W 192246 SPG 1839N10908W 19232
2 =
;


NE eyewall drop: Surface wind 127kt. Last 150m wind: 137kt

[x-y-no]

Finally ...


URPN12 KNHC 312004
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP132009
A. 31/19:18:30Z
B. 18 deg 17 min N
109 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2504 m
D. 125 kt
E. 196 deg 5 nm
F. 285 deg 118 kt
G. 199 deg 5 nm
H. 931 mb
I. 12 C / 3046 m
J. 20 C / 3024 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0113E JIMENA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 149 KT NE QUAD 19:21:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 149 KT NE QUAD 19:21:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WND 132 KTS NE QUAD 19:20:20 Z
;

[craptacular]

FWIW, I measured a 4-hr movement (15Z-19Z) of 309 deg at 9.5 kts. That's left of the forecast track.

And for what this is worth, from the two recon VDMs we get:
A. 31/17:36:30Z
B. 18 deg 06 min N
108 deg 51 min W

A. 31/19:18:30Z
B. 18 deg 17 min N
109 deg 02 min W

316.5 degrees
17.47 miles in 1.7 hours = 10.3 mph = 8.9 kts

[Cyclenall]

It's also good that recon is finally flying into this thing tomorrow afternoon but as usual the pinhole will probably not be there anymore (a larger eye seems to always be present) for them to find what kind of strength Jimena wielded.

I made this post early this morning. See, it's not a pinhole by the time recon gets there...never is (Epac). The "positives" are that there is a full ring of red on AVN and the overall appearance of it shows it to be very organized. The ERC pretty much is completed now.

BTW, the NHC site loaded the slowest I have ever seen it and it's not on my side. This was around 2:30 pm today. When I was viewing images from the floater, I got the 19:00 UTC images updated after a delay and then when I just updated them again, it went back to 18:00 UTC!

Amazing! if it's not a category 5 right now, it was definetely a category 5 yesterday.

I'm thinking the same here, most likely around 11:00 UTC to 14:30 UTC yesterday.

Hmmm just goes to show its a very powerful hurricane, I strongly suspect the NHC will upgrade this post-season if this one doesn't make hurricane at the moment.

What do you mean here?

He means category 5.

I thought so.

[wxman57]

FWIW, I measured a 4-hr movement (15Z-19Z) of 309 deg at 9.5 kts. That's left of the forecast track.

And for what this is worth, from the two recon VDMs we get:
A. 31/17:36:30Z
B. 18 deg 06 min N
108 deg 51 min W

A. 31/19:18:30Z
B. 18 deg 17 min N
109 deg 02 min W

316.5 degrees
17.47 miles in 1.7 hours = 10.3 mph = 8.9 kts

From 1545Z-1945Z just putting my cursor in the center of the eye and letting GARP calculate distance and heading, I get 309 deg and 34nm for 4 hours. That's 8.5 kts. No guarantee the VDMs were in the exact center of the eye. They can be off-track, so there is an element of error when connecting VDM points. Of course, there's an element of error when using satellite to estimate movement, too.

[craptacular]

From 1545Z-1945Z just putting my cursor in the center of the eye and letting GARP calculate distance and heading, I get 309 deg and 34nm for 4 hours. That's 8.5 kts. No guarantee the VDMs were in the exact center of the eye. They can be off-track, so there is an element of error when connecting VDM points. Of course, there's an element of error when using satellite to estimate movement, too.

I wasn't trying to imply that the VDM method was any better ... just providing some more data points.

By the way, what is GARP?

[Iune]

Nearly a C
Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 312034
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE JUST COMPLETED THEIR
MISSION IN JIMENA...AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE WAS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 149 KT
AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS WERE 132 KT OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR ALSO MEASURED 128 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
EYEWALL AND 125 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE EYEWALL. A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 135 KT...AT THE VERY HIGH END OF
CATEGORY 4 STATUS. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO INNER CORE EVENTS...PRIMARILY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENTS. HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND SOME INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
INFLUENCES SHOULD NOT PREVENT JIMENA FROM MAINTAINING MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

AFTER WOBBLING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO...THE MOTION IS
BACK TO NORTHWEST OR 315/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. JIMENA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...LIKE THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...PREVIOUSLY
WESTERN OUTLIERS...HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER THE U.K. AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL SUITE.

NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT STRONG WINDS
WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE REMINDED...NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT...AND
DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. IN
FACT...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT JIMENA
IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED. MOREOVER...TRACK FORECAST
ERRORS CAN EASILY BE 50 TO 75 MILES IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 18.5N 109.2W 135 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 19.6N 110.1W 130 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 21.6N 111.1W 125 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.6N 111.8W 115 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 27.8N 112.7W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 113.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.0N 113.0W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
at 5

[CrazyC83]

No mention of it possibly being a Cat 5 yesterday. It probably dropped to 125-130 kt at 1200Z today but has since restrengthened.

[bombarderoazul]

I think it still has a chance at cat 5 status.

[CrazyC83]

I think it still has a chance at cat 5 status.

Quite possibly. Since this is running above the T-numbers (Dvorak has this at about 120 kt), an increase of T0.2 would do it - it doesn't need to get to T7.0 to be Cat 5.

[Iune]

It there something wrong because the active TC image at the top of the page puts Jimena as a cat 5

[senorpepr]

It there something wrong because the active TC image at the top of the page puts Jimena as a cat 5

That's because that software (that makes that graphic) considered 135 kt as category 5. However, 136 kt is considered category 5 in respect to the NHC. Therefore, currently--and officially--it's category four.

[Iune]

It there something wrong because the active TC image at the top of the page puts Jimena as a cat 5

That's because that software (that makes that graphic) considered 135 kt as category 5. However, 136 kt is considered category 5 in respect to the NHC. Therefore, currently--and officially--it's category four.

thanks

[CrazyC83]

For what it's worth, the ADT went from T6.3 to T6.4 the last hour. As the intensity has been running about T0.5 over the estimates, that is just a little closer to Cat 5.

[bombarderoazul]

It looks like the eye is becoming more circular. It seems to be gaining strength.