ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track updated

The best track position was updated from the last 18 UTC update of 15.6N-53.4W.Now is at 14.6N-53.4W.

AL, 94, 2009083118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 534W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Derek Ortt]

I'll put 2 to 1 odds this will be cancelled

[Orlando_wx]

This is confusing listening to everyone explaining these runs going from one extreme to the next every hour

[cycloneye]

Even if is close to the islands?

[Frank2]

As they said in Rocky, "Las Vegas odds-makers say no!"

LOL

P.S. I hope you're right, Derek...

[Derek Ortt]

Even if is close to the islands?

they will only fly if this looks as if it may develop

[cycloneye]

Updated Bam Model run with new best track position


WHXX01 KWBC 311959
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1959 UTC MON AUG 31 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090831 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090831 1800 090901 0600 090901 1800 090902 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 53.4W 15.7N 55.6W 16.8N 57.6W 17.3N 59.1W
BAMD 14.6N 53.4W 15.7N 55.6W 16.6N 57.3W 17.1N 58.7W
BAMM 14.6N 53.4W 15.4N 55.4W 16.2N 57.1W 16.7N 58.4W
LBAR 14.6N 53.4W 15.6N 55.5W 16.4N 57.6W 16.8N 59.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 38KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090902 1800 090903 1800 090904 1800 090905 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 60.7W 19.2N 63.6W 20.3N 67.0W 21.1N 71.0W
BAMD 17.4N 59.9W 17.8N 62.5W 18.2N 65.2W 18.3N 68.1W
BAMM 16.9N 59.6W 17.1N 61.9W 17.5N 64.6W 17.6N 67.8W
LBAR 17.3N 61.7W 18.1N 65.7W 19.5N 69.0W 19.6N 70.8W
SHIP 59KTS 76KTS 85KTS 88KTS
DSHP 59KTS 76KTS 85KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 53.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 51.0W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 48.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[storms NC]

Did you not say you could call 10 days out for the Co. You work for? But now you saying to early to call?

storms NC wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
One other thing. Long-range projections (beyond 5 days) indicate a very weak high to its north once it passes the NE Caribbean. I don't see anything to drive it westward toward the East U.S. Coast. Could be a threat to Bermuda, or may even pass east of Bermuda.


I think it is way to early to predict for any where for the US. Just to far out and to low as of now to say past 3-5 days.IMO


Not too early to predict at all, but it is too early to be confident in a prediction. Our clients demand to know impact probabilities from 10 days or more out. We don't deal with the general public, though.Looking just a little ragged now on satellite. No update to best track database. Perhaps NHC is waiting until this afternoon to admit it's a TD?

19Z surface plot & satellite. Not very impressive, currently.

94L is not looking too impressive, currently. Shear analysis indicates about 21-22 kts from 850mb-200mb. The disturbance is also moving into a region of accelerating easterly flow at 700mb . With two vorticity centers fighting for dominance, and with at least moderate shear, it may take a while to organize. There is evidence of a weak, elongated LLC . If one looks closely at a visible loop, it does look like the weak LLC is moving northwestward.

What can we deduce from the above? I think it’s looking less likely that 94L will become a hurricane prior to passing over or just north of the NE Caribbean on Thursday. So the threat to the NE Caribbean does appear to be decreasing. The GFS does indicate that the lower-level speed shear may decrease tomorrow. That could lead to much better organization by this time tomorrow. But the models that were forecasting it to be a hurricane all had it as a 35-40 kt TS by 12Z today. Clearly, that’s not the case.

In the long range, it’s not a certainty that it will recurve east of the U.S. 12Z GFS does indicate a possible south Florida threat, with a ridge building north of 94L in 5-6 days. Canadian turns it north a few hundred miles west of Bermuda. NOGAPS moves it toward the northern FL Peninsula. ECMWF moves it to just east of the Bahamas next Sunday then stalls it for a while before shooting it off to the NNE, passing just west of Bermuda on the 10th of September. Clearly, it's too early to make a confident call that this may not be a threat to the East U.S. Coast once it passes the NE Caribbean.

As for development chances, NHC still says “High”, meaning >50%. I suppose I’d agree that chances of development are greater than 50%. But maybe not by much.

[x-y-no]

I'll put 2 to 1 odds this will be cancelled

I'd take those odds if I were a gambling type ...

I doubt this thing develops by tomorrow, but I think there'll be enough there to be worth investigating.

[cycloneye]

I think there'll be enough there to be worth investigating.

Agreed.

[Derek Ortt]

if this does redevelop, we need to look near 18N. That's what the MM5 is indicating and is where the new convection is firing

However, the western Atlantic season may be DOA. I have NEVER seen a trough this large. We have the large EC trough with a large ridge to the east. However, there are two upper lows where there should be ridging these extend from about 35N to SOUTH AMERICA. The UL over the Bahamas is digging farther south.

Those wanting this to hit the USA (or anything)... you likely need to find another storm (maybe something forming in the GOM like Claudette did

[Derek Ortt]

and SHIPS/gfs has somehow found a way to become more absurd!

using this position provides 3KT of shear

GFS:

[wxman57]

Did you not say you could call 10 days out for the Co. You work for? But now you saying to early to call?

wxman57 wrote:
One other thing. Long-range projections (beyond 5 days) indicate a very weak high to its north once it passes the NE Caribbean. I don't see anything to drive it westward toward the East U.S. Coast. Could be a threat to Bermuda, or may even pass east of Bermuda.

I think it is way to early to predict for any where for the US. Just to far out and to low as of now to say past 3-5 days.IMO

Not too early to predict at all, but it is too early to be confident in a prediction. Our clients demand to know impact probabilities from 10 days or more out. We don't deal with the general public, though.Looking just a little ragged now on satellite. No update to best track database. Perhaps NHC is waiting until this afternoon to admit it's a TD?

No change at all. I'm still saying it's too early to be confident in the long-range forecast. Most data still indicate no East U.S. Coast threat, but that's not a guarantee of safety.

Some of our clients (particularly in the Gulf) need 7-8 days to fully prepare for impact. It could take that long for a drill ship to disconnect from a well and secure the pipeline. If we're forecasting for a major offshore installation (like Atlantis, Thunder Horse, Independence Hub) then the multi-billion dollar installation could be in jeopardy if they sail out 2 weeks before a potential impact. And they always sail out in September for some reason. Engineers need numbers/probabilities. It's a tough job having to issue 7-day tracks on all tropical disturbances and then come up with probability of development that goes out 7 days as well.

So it's never too early to make a forecast. However, confidence in the accuracy of a 10-day forecast is rarely going to be high.

[cycloneye]

57,the clients in the NE Caribbean are still being advised about a hurricane?

[terrapintransit]

[fd122]

What are the chances that this weather will come directly our way (Leewards)? Thanks.

[wxman57]

57,the clients in the NE Caribbean are still being advised about a hurricane?

Haven't canceled that possible threat yet, but it's decreasing rapidly. Much lower chance of a significant impact now.

[Aric Dunn]

18 UTC Best Track updated

The best track position was updated from the last 18 UTC update of 15.6N-53.4W.Now is at 14.6N-53.4W.

AL, 94, 2009083118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 534W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

thats what i figured.. no NW movement.. if anything WNW to even west. with a little center relocation ...

[cycloneye]

What are the chances that this weather will come directly our way (Leewards)? Thanks.

First welcome to storm2k.About the Leewards getting this bad weather,it depends on two things,first how will it track and second,how organized it will be by the time it gets closer to the islands.I think the next 12-24 hours will provide a much clear picture about what kind of weather you will see in Antigua.

If you haved not gone yet,there is a thread at Weather Attic forum where the members from the Eastern Caribbean go and post about what is going on their areas as well several web cams from the region posted at the first post of that thread.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&start=0

[OuterBanker]

Derek, I think you should use a football (American) infraction instead of a red card. Most of us don't know what that is