ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Derek Ortt]

its right where MM5 said it would be... 3 of the 4 MM5 forecasts

[Aric Dunn]

well the farther east is.. the less the shear is and through out the day the convection to east has been under 5 to 10 kts of shear as it is right under the upper high .. so we will see what happens but the shear axis has been shifting west with the system somewhat.

only time will tell

as you can see from the animation the upper high has been been pretty much moving perfectly with the deep convection and where the center should form here shortly..

[Aric Dunn]

its right where MM5 said it would be... 3 of the 4 MM5 forecasts

what are those links for them?

[BigA]

I know that convection does not a tropical cyclone make, but this latest burst is pretty spectacular. The 64,000 question is "Do we get a llc forming under it?"

['CaneFreak]

its right where MM5 said it would be... 3 of the 4 MM5 forecasts

what are those links for them?

I was wondering that too Aric....HMMMMM....I wonder if a pro-met would be nice enough to post it for us...

[artist]

its right where MM5 said it would be... 3 of the 4 MM5 forecasts

what are those links for them?

I was wondering that too Aric....HMMMMM....I wonder if a pro-met would be nice enough to post it for us...

is this possibly it?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/

[DESTRUCTION5]

At 72 hours 18z GFS is just northnortheast of Puerto Rico.

I think the real question is what as the GFS been advertising off the NC coast in the past few runs?

[dtaylortgo]

dtaylortgo wrote:
Where do you guys think this will be in 6 days if it does develop? Im suppose to be leaving for a cruise from florida on sunday? Will we leave in time?

I personally think with the condition this is in right now it is still a little early to tell. Where are you going on your cruise?


We are going to belize, costa maya and cozumel....i forgot we actually leave saturday not sunday...so hopefully this storm will allow us to leave.

[weatherwindow]

not really sure why they are saying marginally favorable. There is not much favorable about the current environment

i think this reflects what paul hebert referred to as a measured approach. if nature permits, the center almost always chooses to "move the stakes" in a step by step fashion..ie instead of going from favourable to "god awful" they move thru marginally favourable as an intermediate step which allows a margin of error....as far as your analysis, i agree 94l is about steadily approaching a decidedly unpleasant environment....however, stranger things than development in the face of miserable conditions have happened, as we all have witnessed.......ps kudo on the choice of the more northern development solution......rich

[fci]

dtaylortgo wrote:
Where do you guys think this will be in 6 days if it does develop? Im suppose to be leaving for a cruise from florida on sunday? Will we leave in time?

I personally think with the condition this is in right now it is still a little early to tell. Where are you going on your cruise?


We are going to belize, costa maya and cozumel....i forgot we actually leave saturday not sunday...so hopefully this storm will allow us to leave.

I can't imagine that a cruise out of Miami to the Western Carib would be affected at all by this system.
Still not seeing any Pro Mets talking about a GOM or true South Florida threat.
This thing has to develop first, which looks to be very questionable anyway.
In the unexpected event that something does come of 94L, the cruise lines have alternative routes and ports that they easily switch to. This is a VERY big business and they don't allow their cruises to not go out!!
Don't eat too much!!!!!!

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ok we'll watch the MM5 for closed low off the NC coast from the EC trough at say 18 hrs from now that adds to the weakness this system will follow out to sea.

Interesting

[gatorcane]

Sitting off of South FL at 180 hours but not that strong:

[gatorcane]

At 72 hours 18z GFS is just northnortheast of Puerto Rico.

I think the real question is what as the GFS been advertising off the NC coast in the past few runs?

I already started a thread this AM on this area. Surprised there are no posters???

Regards,

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106426&p=1916727#p1916727




*edited by southerngale to fix quotes

[Evil Jeremy]

I know that convection does not a tropical cyclone make

Stop talking like Yoda lol!

[Nimbus]

The high cirrus clouds are getting that feathered look that usually means the area is under a high that is providing good outflow with less shear. If you only look at the loops every 8 hours or so there does seem to be some slow steady improvement to the structure over longer periods.

[Aric Dunn]

its really starting to blow up now near where the new center should be forming about now..

[jasons2k]

I'm pretty sure the MM5 Derek uses is a custom hi-res version and looks nothing like the FSU MM5.

[cycloneye]

A good blowup of convection near where Aric pointed out earlier.

[jinftl]

Definite blow-up in latest image....and as someone alluded to, the feathered look of some of the cirrus clouds suggest 94L is possibly making another go at developing.

I really don't have a feeling on what this system will do....at some moments, i am ready to write it off. At others, i see potential. Expect the unexpected.

[AtlanticWind]

Shear appears to have lessened this evening,look at outflow and more circular shape.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html