ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[cycloneye]

well here is a NW wind at 1kt .. lol
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

Also a SW wind at 8kts.

[Aric Dunn]

if we are in the middle of the eclipse, when the satellite resumes?

less than a hours
at 245 eastern it comes back..
but you can look at it from the link i posted above it does not experience a eclipse.

[Aric Dunn]

well here is a NW wind at 1kt .. lol
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

Also a SW wind at 8kts.

and no convection in the area.. so not local effects.. its not a significant thing but I'm serious if they found a closed circ in danny when the near by buoys did not confirm a closed circ .. I would bet money that this is Erika already..

[cycloneye]

Animation of 00z HWRF shows no recurve.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

aren't the best track and ssd a little behind.. oh wait its cause the eclipse huh.. hmm..

[Aric Dunn]

latest image is now in .. still blowing up ..

[Aric Dunn]

latest microwave..

showing strong mid level circ withing in the convection and a little tighter but still broad surface circ in western edge.. seems the mid lvel shear is holding this back. cause the upper environment is pretty decent.

[PTrackerLA]

Look at that naked swirl!

[Aric Dunn]

AL, 94, 2009090106, , BEST, 0, 160N, 559W, 30, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

01/0615 UTC 16.4N 55.9W T2.0/2.0 94L

the microwave image above and the earlier one I posted match with the latest best track and ssd

image below is the two postions

[Fego]

Any sign of a LLC?

[Aric Dunn]

Any sign of a LLC?

yes but still broad .. and weak.. which is amazing.. .. but we do not know whats going on under the convection and there could still be something there.. just have to wait to visible then recon. the winds are there for sure..

this is a good sign .. we have WSW WINDS !!! this buoy is a just south of the center.. they could upgrade with that ..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101 and pressure is falling ..

[Aric Dunn]

The buoy with respect to the center fixes.. wsw wind is in the right location..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

[SouthFLTropics]

Gotta Have More Recon Baby!!!

[Meso]

The 06z CMC looks even more west

[Aric Dunn]

IT will be erika BY 11am even though it is right now... we have a closed circulation.. maybe 5am since they may need some time for warnings as its going to pass over the NE islands..

[Aric Dunn]

latest microwave as of 2 hours ago.. clearly showing a circulation... with convection displaced to the east..

[bob rulz]

I know I said this LAST night, lol, but I think this will be upgraded at 5. There seems to be enough evidence of a LLC to upgrade (even if it is a broad one), and I think they'd like to declare it early enough to put up warnings for the Lesser Antilles. If it is upgraded it will go straight to Erika.

[lonelymike]

12Z Euro show recurve. Also a very weak HP area off the coast for the next 240 hrs.

[Derek Ortt]

shear increasing over western semi-circle. Convection seems to have hit a wall. If there is a center, it is 100NM west of the convection

absolutely no reason for an upgrade. Back to sleep!

[weatherwindow]

aric et al..please refresh my memory how is that ul low near pr forecast to evolve...sw move or west move or cut off?...rich