Global model runs discussion

[KWT]

Yep whatever you say about the CMC, behind probably the ECM it was the best with Bill. It also picked up the first hints of Claudette way before the others, and also suggested the southerly track of Ana IRCC. However does look like the GFS is doing the best with Danny so far.

[Macrocane]

The Euro continues to depict a scenario that reminds me to what we saw with Morakot a few weeks ago. As I said before this model has been very consistent with that system. Philippines, Taiwan and China should keep an eye on this possibility. That's just my unofficial opnion.

ECMWF 168h

[cycloneye]

If GFS is right,an active September may be in the cards.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[somethingfunny]

DOUBLE POST ALERT!

I miss Ed Mahmoud.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The 12z CMC does the same thing. I guess this will be a good test of the "new and improved" Canadian. If the new CMC isn't spinning up any more phantomcanes then within a week we should be seeing a real East Coast threat from Danny, a strengthening Erika crossing the MDR, and Fred forming out by the Cape Verdes. I don't expect perfection from the CMC...it's still just a computer model, and at 144 hours...but if we get 2/3 of the storms it's forecasting, the new CMC will have my respect. The CMC is also developing Jimena in about 3 days and Kevin in the EPAC from the current 93L soon afterwards. So there's five points upon which the improvements can be graded.

And yes, the upper level pattern does make potential Erika look like a real threat next week.

I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL AND THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.... I AM JUST AN AMATEUR... AND AN AMATEURISH AMATEUR AT THAT!

And it's been a bit more than 144 hours so here is the CMC's report card:

"Danny" - not technically a false read but considering how bullish the CMC was, and what Danny ended up being...I'd consider it to be a phantomcane.

"Erika" - Still not a tropical cyclone, but it appears that the CMC was just a few days too quick on developing this one (94L) rather than a completely busted forecast.

"Fred" - Since the CMC expected this to be well past the Cape Verdes by now, I'm not sure if the Code Yellow that's closer to Africa is the same system but paced slower, or a completely different system....but either way, the 8/25/09 12Z Canadian run forecasted this to be fairly well developed by now, and it's not.

"Jimena" - Turns out the far-EPAC system developed later and it became Kevin instead...and the CMC busted the initial movement - Kevin didn't move west, it moved N-NNE. But the CMC correctly forecasted this area to develop into a tropical cyclone.

"Kevin" - 93L/94E ended up becoming Jimena instead, and the CMC correctly forecasted development in this area. However at 144 hours this model had Jimena moving W-WNW rather than NW-NNW towards the Baja.


Well, strictly regarding cyclogenesis within the 144h timeframe, the new and improved Canadian model scored a 3/5 although Danny really was an epic bust especially considering the closer timeframe of the forecast. The other two may yet develop, and the track errors in the EPAC show how unwise it is to try to rely on any long / mid range model...whether it's the 240h GFS forecasting Bill, or the 144h CMC forecasting Jimena.... for a reliable track forecast.

[Wx_Warrior]

The 2 week PRO model of the EURO has a monster coming off of Africa that tracks west across the Atlantic with no recurve.....

[lonelymike]

Just checked the 240 hour Euro and it doesn't show anything.

[Wx_Warrior]

It's further out....moves west across ATL and stops. Doesn't go any further. I don't know which edition but its a pay version.

[lonelymike]

That's a long way out. Probably won't verify but who knows.

[somethingfunny]

It's further out....moves west across ATL and stops. Doesn't go any further. I don't know which edition but its a pay version.

Why would you pay for a 240 hour model when the NHC's don't even work properly at 24?

[Meso]

Hurricane in the Gulf

[lonelymike]

Euro doesn't show anything out through 240.

[lonelymike]

Still nothing on the long range Euro. I'm no expert on reading these things but it looks eeirly quiet for September. Not that anyone would complain....well except for them Yankees up north who would have nothing to track..

[caneseddy]

The 2 week PRO model of the EURO has a monster coming off of Africa that tracks west across the Atlantic with no recurve.....

Wasn't the EURO one of the first models to pick up what turned out to be Ike about a week or two ahead last season?

[Jagno]

Hurricane in the Gulf

Just for fun I went to the Farmers Almanac sight to see what the long term forecast was due to all the attention it's been getting with it's winter forecast. Well, being near the Gulf nothing was mentioned about my area however it did mention a hurricane around the second week of September. Then I come here to see if anything was stirring and found your post. I pray they're both wrong.

[cycloneye]

The 00z ECMWF has two systems in the Eastern Atlantic.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[gatorcane]

The long-range GFS and ECMWF are bothing latching on to a decent Cape Verde system in the 10-14 day timeframe. With just about nothing interesting until then possibly, this is something that you can look at in the meantime. Chances of development at this time are less than 1%.

06Z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

00Z ECMWF
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9090500!!/

[Macrocane]

GFS 06z also shows that the energy of 95-L will move northward and will become an extratropical/subtropical system in about 7-8 days

[BigA]

2 areas of possible interest...First is the wave currently over Africa. It has a decent circulation associated with it, and the GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, and both FSU models develop it. However, given the weakness in the central Atlantic, this looks to be a fish. Nevertheless, if it developes, its worth a name and 10+ ACE probably.

Second area that the models develop is off the east coast. I have no idea at all if this is associated with the energy from the remnants of Erika, but the CMC, NOGAPS, and FSU models develop a low, with the possibility of it swinging bac westward (assuming development occurs)

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET continues to develop the wave behind 95L.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.4N 21.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2009 12.4N 21.6W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2009 13.5N 24.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2009 13.0N 26.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2009 14.6N 28.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2009 15.9N 30.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2009 16.8N 31.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2009 18.2N 32.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2009 18.9N 32.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2009 19.3N 33.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


12z CMC also develops it but also goes fishing.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

12z GFS is also in the fishing camp as a weakness will be in the Central Atlantic to steer it NW.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

Something in the GOM has just started to show up on the 06Z GFS run albeit at 360 hours out. Will be interested in knowing if this GOM system shows up on future runs.

Also, keep seeing a very vigorous wave/depression forming just SW of the Cape Verde islands out at 12 days from now heading west. Nearly every GFS run for the past couple of days has shown this Cape Verde system in the run.

The ECMWF has been latching on to what looks to be the same wave/depression. Here is the 00Z ECMWF at 240 hours:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9090600!!/