ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Derek Ortt]

what does yellow alert mean in meteofrance speak?

What would a TS warning be? a hurricane warning?

[Gustywind]

Ok im going to cry.. lol .. no upgrade.. i go to sleep at a point where it was likely to be upgaded and i wake up and nope.. even though we have a system worthy of upgrad.. oh well.. lol

Maybe the NHC is sleeping... dangerous approach for the islands, we hate classified system just near us!

[Aric Dunn]

its been heading pretty much due west for the past 6 to 8 hours or so . .

[Sanibel]

I'm thinking more like 280 degrees now.


Best thing to do is call this as the busted system it is like Danny and see if it improves.

[cycloneye]

we hate classified system just near us

I remember Dean that was classified as a 60 mph storm just to east of PR and that was like crazy,as people jammed the stores in a hurry,school was suspended,traffic jams at 3 PM (two hours before peak traffic) etc.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm thinking more like 280 degrees now.


Best thing to do is call this as the busted system it is like Danny and see if it improves.

lol yeah its another headache for sure..

wow shear a head of this has dropped nearly 20 kts since last night and the upper ridge over it has improved .. still seems to be some midlevel shear but interesting..

[Gustywind]

what does yellow alert mean in meteofrance speak?

What would a TS warning be? a hurricane warning?

It's a warning Derek Ortt, that's mean we must be vigilant a DT for example could bring bad weather here during the next 24-48H. No preparations during this phase, while the orange code emphasizes on medium to strong risk to see a TD crossing the island during the next 12-24h, we have after that the red code (very strong chance) and the summum the purple code: everybody should stay in its home, that's equals to a warning, the feature is there!
Gustywind

[Bocadude85]

94L is definately not looking good this morning.. I have a feeling it may take awhile for this system to develop.. maybe once it passes Puerto Rico conditions will be more favorable for development.

[Gustywind]

we hate classified system just near us

I remember Dean that was classified as a 60 mph storm just to east of PR and that was like crazy,as people jammed the stores in a hurry,school was suspended,traffic jams at 3 PM (two hours before peak traffic) etc.

Yeah that's reminded me Marylin too, panic panic time, students just informed at 5PM after the school... fighting against gusts near 35 to 40 kts, waouw, no word for that. I remembered in some stores breds falling, umbrellas moving away with the wind, etc. Amazing picture for sure!

[Jevo]

what does yellow alert mean in meteofrance speak?

What would a TS warning be? a hurricane warning?

It's a warning Derek Ortt, that's mean we must be vigilant a DT for example could bring bad weather here during the next 24-48H. No preparations during this phase, while the orange code emphasizes on medium to strong risk to see a TD crossing the island during the next 12-24h, we have after that the red code (very strong chance) and the summum the purple code: everybody should stay in its home, that's equals to a warning, the feature is there!
Gustywind

Here is a nice little PDF explaining the French «Vigilance Météo» ( Met-awareness) System. I believe the part that deals with the Antilles is on page 27ish

http://www.dkkv.org/upload/editor/Orkan ... ermann.pdf

Enjoy

[Gustywind]

what does yellow alert mean in meteofrance speak?

What would a TS warning be? a hurricane warning?

It's a warning Derek Ortt, that's mean we must be vigilant a DT for example could bring bad weather here during the next 24-48H. No preparations during this phase, while the orange code emphasizes on medium to strong risk to see a TD crossing the island during the next 12-24h, we have after that the red code (very strong chance) and the summum the purple code: everybody should stay in its home, that's equals to a warning, the feature is there!
Gustywind

Excuse me right now it's a watch (yellow alert for us).

[Weatherboy1]

I would argue that 94 is definitely "tightening up" in as much as the broad circulation appears to be turning into more of a tighter LLC (albeit a "naked" one). Key will be whether any convection can build and hold over or nearer the center. Otherwise, maybe it just opens up again.

[storms NC]

As many years that I have been watching Storms I have found that when the Pacific is bussy then the Atlantic is slow. When the pacific slows the Atlantic will pick up. I have been doing this before they had PC's. But it is not alway true but most of the time. and we have El NiñoAnd that don't help much with a storm trying to build. Just my thinking.

[Frank2]

Sanibel,

Yes, this will go down as the season for busted computer model forecasts (except for Bill, of course, which was a classic recurving CV hurricane)...

This reminds me of a similar system in 1983 (I think) that was almost in the same location - at that time the NHC had the "storm" to 60 mph just by it's appearance, until recon found it barely a tropical depression...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

last half of the frames.. its clearly a well defined circ..

its they dont consider that well defined why did they even upgrade danny when they did cause at the time of upgrade the exposed swirl was worse than this..

if thats not good enough they need to go back a kill many systems that were declared TC's

[otowntiger]

Convection is definitely decreasing as we speak. You can see it shrinking like the witch in the Wizard of Oz after Dorothy spilled water on her. I know maybe its just an eyewall replacement cycle!

[Evil Jeremy]

What I find interesting is that 94L is not "shedding" (as I like to call it) the convection off, it is just shrinking, but also staying intense at the center of the convection at the same time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[tailgater]

Well for the first time in 2 days I'll agree that there is a LLC but it is completely exposed and we will have to wait and see if convection starts firing near the center. if so I would think that it would deepen rather quickly.

[storms NC]

I think the LLC is at 16.5 north and 55.0 west. Yes right under that convection. But I have been wrong before.

[otowntiger]

Well for the first time in 2 days I'll agree that there is a LLC but it is completely exposed and we will have to wait and see if convection starts firing near the center. if so I would think that it would deepen rather quickly.

This storm hasn't done anything quickly.