ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[ciclonson]

I think the LLC is at 16.5 north and 55.0 west. Yes right under that convection. But I have been wrong before.

I will second you on that... so maybe we'll both be wrong , but on the last close up frame it looks to me like that "LLC" we're all following is about to be sucked in to the coordinates you mention above...

[Aric Dunn]

Well for the first time in 2 days I'll agree that there is a LLC but it is completely exposed and we will have to wait and see if convection starts firing near the center. if so I would think that it would deepen rather quickly.

This storm hasn't done anything quickly.

lol.. except wear down my patience..

[bvigal]

I just want some rain... at this point, not even sure we'll get that, it may all go north of here like a few others this season... Ann was a huge disappointment, almost no precip here. Many have bought cistern water more than once. (Of course, now that I've posted this, we'll have a howling storm, LOL!)

[Frank2]

El Nino seasons = many exposed LLC's in the Atlantic basin...

That's been the NHC's experience since El Nino was identified over 25 years ago, and was the main reason for reducing their pre-season forecast numbers and/or intensity, for those systems that they think might develop...

Frank

[Evil Jeremy]

I think we have an LLC. Bout time. Now we just need to see how long the shear keeps up for.

[cycloneye]

artist,plane is on route.

URNT15 KNHC 011616
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 01 20090901
160700 1745N 06403W 5732 04813 0094 +010 +003 174011 011 032 000 00
160730 1745N 06401W 5729 04813 0093 +010 -002 170012 012 032 000 00
160800 1745N 06359W 5729 04811 0092 +010 -005 168012 013 033 000 00
160830 1745N 06356W 5729 04817 0093 +010 -010 168012 012 032 000 00
160900 1746N 06354W 5730 04813 0094 +010 -013 171012 012 033 000 00
160930 1746N 06351W 5729 04813 0094 +010 -016 169011 012 033 000 00
161000 1746N 06349W 5729 04809 0096 +010 -019 172011 011 031 000 03
161030 1746N 06346W 5729 04814 0098 +009 -021 172011 011 030 000 00
161100 1746N 06344W 5730 04811 0105 +005 -023 173010 010 030 000 03
161130 1747N 06341W 5729 04813 0096 +010 -026 175010 010 030 000 03
161200 1747N 06339W 5729 04812 0094 +011 -028 174010 010 999 999 03
161230 1747N 06337W 5729 04814 0096 +010 -030 177010 010 999 999 03
161300 1747N 06334W 5728 04816 0096 +008 -031 179010 010 999 999 03
161330 1747N 06332W 5728 04815 0104 +005 -032 178009 009 999 999 03
161400 1748N 06329W 5728 04814 0100 +007 -034 173010 010 999 999 03
161430 1748N 06327W 5726 04817 0111 +002 -035 170010 010 999 999 03
161500 1748N 06324W 5728 04814 0115 +000 -037 174009 010 999 999 03
161530 1748N 06322W 5726 04810 0106 +005 -039 173008 008 999 999 03
161600 1748N 06319W 5728 04814 0106 +005 -041 172008 008 999 999 03
161630 1749N 06317W 5726 04811 0100 +007 -042 176008 009 999 999 03

[Stormcenter]

Geez,

Come on guys. If yall are arguing over this wait until a front stalls in the GOM next week.

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 011617
97779 16144 30178 63400 45600 99005 00541 /8026
RMK AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 01

[Stormcenter]

I think you meant to say wave.

Well for the first time in 2 days I'll agree that there is a LLC but it is completely exposed and we will have to wait and see if convection starts firing near the center. if so I would think that it would deepen rather quickly.

This storm hasn't done anything quickly.

[wxman57]

what does yellow alert mean in meteofrance speak?

What would a TS warning be? a hurricane warning?

It means shields up, phasers locked on target, I think. Or is that red alert?

[Fego]

Looking at 94L with the RGB seems to me that some clouds are beggining to cover the llc near 16.5 N - 57 W... just an observation, may be is temporary.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[wxman57]

I think we have an LLC. Bout time. Now we just need to see how long the shear keeps up for.

I don't think I'd make that conclusion yet, EJ.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think we have an LLC. Bout time. Now we just need to see how long the shear keeps up for.

I don't think I'd make that conclusion yet, EJ.

Thats why your the pro and I am the amature lol.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011627
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 02 20090901
161700 1749N 06314W 5728 04813 0103 +006 -044 181008 009 999 999 03
161730 1749N 06312W 5728 04813 0101 +006 -044 185009 009 999 999 03
161800 1749N 06310W 5728 04818 0107 +005 -045 184008 008 999 999 03
161830 1749N 06307W 5726 04817 0108 +005 -046 185008 008 999 999 03
161900 1749N 06307W 5726 04817 0108 +005 -047 190007 007 999 999 03
161930 1750N 06302W 5728 04813 0108 +005 -048 189007 008 999 999 03
162000 1750N 06300W 5728 04821 0108 +005 -049 186007 007 999 999 03
162030 1750N 06257W 5728 04815 0106 +005 -050 195007 008 999 999 03
162100 1750N 06255W 5728 04813 0101 +007 -050 193008 008 999 999 03
162130 1751N 06252W 5728 04814 0095 +010 -051 193008 008 999 999 03
162200 1751N 06250W 5728 04818 0103 +005 -051 188007 007 999 999 03
162230 1751N 06247W 5726 04817 0103 +005 -052 190007 007 999 999 03
162300 1751N 06245W 5729 04815 0100 +008 -052 185007 008 999 999 03
162330 1751N 06242W 5724 04823 0102 +006 -053 184007 007 999 999 03
162400 1752N 06240W 5729 04813 0108 +006 -053 180006 007 999 999 03
162430 1752N 06237W 5726 04818 0108 +005 -054 177006 006 999 999 03
162500 1752N 06235W 5728 04812 0108 +005 -055 173006 006 999 999 03
162530 1752N 06232W 5728 04817 0107 +005 -056 172006 006 999 999 03
162600 1752N 06230W 5726 04818 0103 +005 -057 181006 006 999 999 03
162630 1753N 06227W 5728 04815 0108 +004 -058 171006 006 999 999 03
$$
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[HURAKAN]

[artist]

At 16:07:00Z (first observation), the observation was 140 miles (225 km) to the ESE (109°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 16:16:30Z (last observation), the observation was 187 miles (301 km) to the ESE (103°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
this is for the first obs

[Recurve]

Anyone seeing west surface winds yet?

[artist]

At 16:17:00Z (first observation), the observation was 190 miles (306 km) to the ESE (102°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 16:26:30Z (last observation), the observation was 44 miles (71 km) to the NNE (25°) from Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis.

[wxman57]

Anyone seeing west surface winds yet?

No. Won't likely see any today with the convection 125 miles east of the wave axis. Come back tomorrow, more likely Thursday.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011636
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 03 20090901
162700 1753N 06225W 5726 04812 0110 +002 -059 173007 007 999 999 03
162730 1753N 06223W 5726 04812 0108 +003 -060 169006 007 999 999 03
162800 1753N 06220W 5726 04819 0109 +005 -061 168005 005 999 999 03
162830 1753N 06218W 5727 04812 0109 +005 -062 175003 004 999 999 03
162900 1753N 06215W 5728 04814 0103 +005 -062 175004 004 999 999 03
162930 1754N 06213W 5728 04814 0103 +006 -062 172004 004 999 999 03
163000 1754N 06210W 5726 04816 0100 +007 -062 169004 004 999 999 03
163030 1754N 06208W 5729 04811 0099 +009 -062 170003 003 999 999 03
163100 1754N 06205W 5727 04817 0099 +010 -062 176003 003 999 999 03
163130 1754N 06203W 5726 04815 0100 +009 -062 175003 004 999 999 03
163200 1755N 06200W 5725 04815 0104 +007 -062 184003 004 999 999 03
163230 1755N 06158W 5727 04818 0105 +006 -062 189003 004 999 999 03
163300 1755N 06156W 5728 04818 0102 +007 -061 185004 005 999 999 03
163330 1755N 06153W 5728 04811 0102 +005 -060 173004 005 999 999 03
163400 1755N 06151W 5728 04810 0110 +003 -060 153003 004 999 999 03
163430 1755N 06148W 5727 04817 0113 +001 -059 132002 002 999 999 03
163500 1756N 06146W 5728 04814 0108 +005 -060 211003 003 999 999 03
163530 1756N 06143W 5726 04815 0102 +006 -063 210005 005 999 999 03
163600 1756N 06141W 5728 04815 0099 +009 -065 196006 006 999 999 03
163630 1756N 06138W 5729 04812 0102 +007 -066 188006 006 999 999 03
$$
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