ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[tolakram]

Use the flash links!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

I want to boycott those darn java loops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

And there's the closeup vis from RAMDIS ( http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp )

LOOP: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011726
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 08 20090901
171700 1750N 05833W 9647 00415 0118 +223 +113 062029 029 999 999 03
171730 1749N 05832W 9638 00423 0117 +222 +116 054028 030 999 999 03
171800 1748N 05830W 9645 00415 0117 +224 +118 059031 032 999 999 03
171830 1747N 05829W 9644 00416 0116 +222 +120 063033 034 999 999 03
171900 1746N 05828W 9645 00416 0115 +222 +122 065034 035 999 999 03
171930 1745N 05826W 9642 00416 0114 +221 +124 062030 031 999 999 03
172000 1744N 05825W 9645 00414 0114 +220 +126 060030 031 999 999 03
172030 1743N 05824W 9645 00414 0113 +220 +127 062029 029 999 999 03
172100 1741N 05823W 9643 00414 0113 +220 +128 062030 030 999 999 03
172130 1740N 05821W 9643 00412 0111 +224 +129 060030 030 999 999 03
172200 1739N 05820W 9646 00410 0111 +223 +131 062031 032 032 000 03
172230 1738N 05819W 9646 00410 0110 +221 +132 064033 034 031 000 03
172300 1737N 05817W 9644 00411 0110 +220 +133 063030 031 031 000 03
172330 1736N 05816W 9646 00410 0110 +222 +134 065031 032 031 000 03
172400 1735N 05815W 9644 00409 0108 +224 +135 064032 033 032 000 03
172430 1734N 05814W 9645 00409 0108 +225 +135 063031 032 032 000 03
172500 1733N 05812W 9645 00408 0107 +225 +137 062031 031 032 000 03
172530 1732N 05811W 9645 00409 0107 +225 +138 062030 030 032 000 03
172600 1731N 05810W 9645 00408 0106 +225 +139 063030 031 030 000 03
172630 1730N 05808W 9645 00408 0105 +225 +140 064031 032 999 999 03
$$
;

[artist]

At 17:17:00Z (first observation), the observation was 223 miles (359 km) to the ENE (77°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.
At 17:26:30Z (last observation), the observation was 247 miles (397 km) to the E (84°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.

['CaneFreak]

convection beginning to fire of south side of the LLC .. Low level clouds are thickening near the center.. expect a large burst near the center over the next few hours..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html center is near 16.8 N 57.2W

yeah...stayed up for no reason...HA!!!

I think this thing is going to reform further to the SW where the best convergence and lowest shear is located...that would only make sense...however...this thing has a mind of its own like Danny...so...who knows????

[Aric Dunn]

operational altitude..

[Evil Jeremy]

We (those of us here in the SE US) have nothing to worry about. If the storm strengthens it will re-curve. If it doesn't, it could head our way as just a weak tropical wave or td at most. That sounds like a win win to me. What are we all worried about?

Why do you think those are the only possibilities? If its a TS+ it re curves, if it is a TD- it does not effect us? I think your sounding the all clear to quickly.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Blown Away]

anybody notice the 12Z develops other Cape Verde systems that all recurve in the Central Atlantic?

This season may just be over for any CONUS threats from a Cape Verde system......good news if that verifies.

Keep in mind, the N models GFDL & HWRF both have 94L as a borderline hurricane within the next 24 hours, thus the more pole ward movement. The W models keep 94L weak. Come this weekend the N models are counting on 94L gaining enough latitude to get picked up by the "minor short wave energy". It's pretty clear 94L won't be on the cusp of a hurricane very soon and should move more W. I'm surprised you have totally discounted this. It seems if 94L ever affects SFL it will at the most a TS.

[Derek Ortt]

recon is getting higher winds that I expected to the west of the area of low-pressure

[storms NC]

Latest GFDL suggests a turn east of 70W. NOGAPS is close to the NC coast but seems to miss just to the east.

GFDL: 126 26.6 68.8 330./ 7.3

NOGAPS: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 0m&tau=180

NOGAPS has been pertty much on the track since it first came out. So I have been going by NOGAPS for right now. I will see how it does later down the road.

[Evil Jeremy]

anybody notice the 12Z develops other Cape Verde systems that all recurve in the Central Atlantic?

This season may just be over for any CONUS threats from a Cape Verde system......good news if that verifies.

Keep in mind, the N models GFDL & HWRF both have 94L as a borderline hurricane within the next 24 hours, thus the more pole ward movement. The W models keep 94L weak. Come this weekend the N models are counting on 94L gaining enough latitude to get picked up by the "minor short wave energy". It's pretty clear 94L won't be on the cusp of a hurricane very soon and should move more W. I'm surprised you have totally discounted this. It seems if 94L ever affects SFL it will at the most a TS.

The GFDL and HWRF also have 94L moving north right now.

[RL3AO]

recon is getting higher winds that I expected to the west of the area of low-pressure

Yeah. 30-35kt FL well northwest of the center.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure 1004 and dropping the closer they get.. winds 35mph.. so far.

opps wrong line..

1009

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011737
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 09 20090901
172700 1729N 05807W 9645 00407 0105 +224 +141 063029 030 999 999 03
172730 1727N 05806W 9644 00408 0105 +225 +143 062028 029 032 000 03
172800 1726N 05805W 9643 00407 0104 +225 +144 061027 027 033 000 03
172830 1725N 05803W 9646 00404 0103 +226 +144 060026 027 031 000 03
172900 1724N 05802W 9645 00404 0103 +225 +145 059026 027 031 000 03
172930 1723N 05801W 9641 00408 0103 +225 +147 057025 026 032 000 03
173000 1722N 05759W 9646 00404 0102 +225 +147 056025 025 999 999 03
173030 1721N 05758W 9643 00406 0102 +225 +148 053024 024 030 000 03
173100 1720N 05757W 9645 00404 0102 +226 +149 054024 024 031 000 03
173130 1719N 05755W 9645 00404 0101 +225 +149 053023 024 031 000 03
173200 1718N 05754W 9644 00403 0100 +227 +150 053024 024 030 000 03
173230 1716N 05753W 9643 00405 0100 +227 +151 053023 024 029 000 00
173300 1715N 05751W 9645 00403 0100 +229 +151 054023 023 029 000 03
173330 1714N 05750W 9644 00404 0099 +227 +152 052022 023 029 000 03
173400 1713N 05749W 9645 00402 0099 +229 +153 049022 022 029 000 03
173430 1712N 05747W 9644 00402 0098 +230 +154 049022 023 030 000 03
173500 1711N 05746W 9644 00402 0098 +227 +155 045021 021 028 000 03
173530 1710N 05745W 9645 00400 0098 +228 +156 045020 021 027 000 00
173600 1709N 05743W 9645 00401 0097 +229 +156 044020 020 028 000 03
173630 1707N 05742W 9645 00401 0096 +230 +157 045019 019 027 000 00
$$
;

[artist]

At 17:27:00Z (first observation), the observation was 248 miles (398 km) to the E (84°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.
At 17:36:30Z (last observation), the observation was 274 miles (441 km) to the E (90°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.

[drezee]

recon is getting higher winds that I expected to the west of the area of low-pressure

Indeed 35 kts flight level and SFMR of 32 knots...if classified it will likely go straight to TS...

[Aric Dunn]

recon is getting higher winds that I expected to the west of the area of low-pressure

Indeed 35 kts flight level and SFMR of 32 knots...if classified it will likely go straight to TS...

thats in dry weather.. probably going to find 45 50 in the convection..

[artist]

recon is getting higher winds that I expected to the west of the area of low-pressure

Indeed 35 kts flight level and SFMR of 32 knots...if classified it will likely go straight to TS...

Small piece of trivia - I have heard that they have nicknamed the SFMR the smurf.

[Sanibel]

It is maintaining.


Should go into another d-max burst this evening if its habits continue:

[Chris_in_Tampa]