ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Evil Jeremy]

That is interesting, I never knew you could find their internal plot online. Does that mean they are working on an advisory package? Anyways, it looks like they are thinking a blend of the latest UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC.

[artist]

ok, I figured it out, i am not getting any pics from any.gov site. Can't even get my radar and we are getting ready to have a storm. Anyone else?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Ivanhater]

That is interesting, I never knew you could find their internal plot online. Does that mean they are working on an advisory package? Anyways, it looks like they are thinking a blend of the latest UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC.

Usually you see it right before they upgrade. This happened last year with Dolly I think.

[lrak]

Whats got the LBAR going south?

[Evil Jeremy]

That is interesting, I never knew you could find their internal plot online. Does that mean they are working on an advisory package? Anyways, it looks like they are thinking a blend of the latest UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC.

Usually you see it right before they upgrade. This happened last year with Dolly I think.

Interesting though that they also created an internal track for the 12z atcf early model page image thing lol. This is their second internal track then, and is about a fraction north of their previous one, but not much of a change.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Weak winds in the SW quadrant. LLC not as well defined there.

[ronjon]

That is interesting, I never knew you could find their internal plot online. Does that mean they are working on an advisory package? Anyways, it looks like they are thinking a blend of the latest UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC.

Usually you see it right before they upgrade. This happened last year with Dolly I think.

IH, looks pretty close to the model consensus (avg of all). Given the spread, I can see the NHC taking the path right down the middle.

[otowntiger]

If we didn't know where the real center is this would look like a well-organized tropical system

That is very true. That is a deceptively strong looking image.

[Ivanhater]

That is interesting, I never knew you could find their internal plot online. Does that mean they are working on an advisory package? Anyways, it looks like they are thinking a blend of the latest UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC.

Usually you see it right before they upgrade. This happened last year with Dolly I think.

IH, looks pretty close to the model consensus (avg of all). Given the spread, I can see the NHC taking the path right down the middle.

That is certainly looks what it looks like. What I'm looking for (kind of like Ike) is if the shear keeps it in check in the short term, it may miss the 1st trough and be under the building ridge over the east coast

[wxman57]

SHIPS still has 3KT of shear over this now and about 25KT in 4 days.

still cannot figure out what GFS is doing

Saw that, Derek. Did you see the shear map Chris Velden just posted to the tstorms list? It indicates 850-200mb shear on the order of 20 kts now.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011856
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 17 20090901
184700 1643N 05727W 9645 00391 0084 +235 +191 255003 003 999 999 03
184730 1645N 05726W 9645 00391 0084 +235 +192 241003 004 999 999 03
184800 1646N 05725W 9643 00390 0083 +236 +193 240004 004 999 999 03
184830 1647N 05723W 9645 00389 0083 +235 +193 243004 004 999 999 03
184900 1648N 05722W 9643 00390 0081 +236 +194 233005 006 999 999 03
184930 1650N 05721W 9646 00387 0081 +235 +195 227005 006 999 999 03
185000 1651N 05719W 9645 00387 0080 +235 +196 230004 005 999 999 03
185030 1652N 05718W 9641 00389 0080 +235 +197 230004 005 999 999 03
185100 1654N 05717W 9646 00385 0080 +235 +197 220004 004 999 999 03
185130 1655N 05716W 9646 00385 0080 +235 +197 205003 003 999 999 03
185200 1657N 05715W 9643 00388 0079 +235 +197 207002 003 999 999 03
185230 1658N 05714W 9643 00386 0078 +235 +198 189003 003 999 999 03
185300 1659N 05713W 9645 00386 0077 +235 +198 165003 003 999 999 03
185330 1701N 05711W 9644 00386 0076 +235 +198 161003 004 999 999 03
185400 1702N 05710W 9646 00383 0075 +238 +198 128003 003 999 999 03
185430 1703N 05709W 9645 00383 0075 +240 +199 112003 004 999 999 03
185500 1705N 05708W 9647 00381 0075 +236 +199 101004 004 999 999 03
185530 1706N 05707W 9644 00383 0074 +236 +200 095006 007 999 999 03
185600 1707N 05706W 9641 00386 0074 +235 +200 108007 008 999 999 03
185630 1708N 05704W 9644 00382 0074 +235 +200 115008 008 999 999 03
$$
;

[The Eye Wall]

94L reminds me of Dolly. Dolly had such good representation with deep convection for days. I remember many trashing the NHC for not upgrading it but the recon never could close off a center. FINALLY, as we know, it was upgraded.

[artist]

At 18:47:00Z (first observation), the observation was 280 miles (450 km) to the ENE (69°) from Roseau, Dominica.
At 18:56:30Z (last observation), the observation was 314 miles (505 km) to the ENE (66°) from Roseau, Dominica.

[Derek Ortt]

saw the shear at HRD. An area of 40KT ahead of this

not sure how GFS can be this clueless. Wonder if something is wrong with the data assimilation

[tolakram]

Looking at the visible loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Shear seems to be either backing off or changing directions. Convection getting closer to LLC.

[artist]

beginning to have power surges from the storm I can't see , can someone else take over for awhile?

[otowntiger]

White line will likely be the NHC track

That is a wide spread in the models at this time isn't it?

[wxman57]

Here's an 18Z analysis/satellite. There is some evidence of a weak circulation where the crosshairs are (NHC estimate). Note that the plane did not fly through any of the convection to the east of the center yet.

[RL3AO]

Sure.