ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Evil Jeremy]

I assume we will get some TS warnings up for the Antilles and perhaps a TS watch for PR at the moment.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Off topic: Jimena downgraded to category 3, 125 mph winds.

HURAKAN or anyone else,

Do you mind posting a link to one of those updating satellite pictures of 94L? Thanks very much.

Edited to correct re: 94L. Thanks Hurrakan.

[Stormcenter]

You can tell things have been slow this season. Look at all of the excitement for a TS.

[JonathanBelles]

Off topic: Jimena downgraded to category 3, 125 mph winds.

HURAKAN or anyone else,

Do you mind posting a link to one of those updating satellite pictures on our new TS Erika? Thanks very much.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
Still under 94L for now. Also note the new Flash loops.

[AdamFirst]

You can tell things have been slow this season. Look at all of the excitement for a TS.

Maybe it's the board's Atlantic bias...there's a monster named Jimena in the West Pacific and it's a safe bet that a bunch of people here aren't interested in it

[expat2carib]

You can tell things have been slow this season. Look at all of the excitement for a TS.

It's very close to land Islands. Not many warnings out yet. Maybe an upgrade will change that.

[Evil Jeremy]

You can tell things have been slow this season. Look at all of the excitement for a TS.

You know its a slow season when an invest gets 83 pages lol. Really though, I am glad we are done playing the "Will it/won't it" game. I mean, this has been an invest since Thursday morning lol! Almost a week!

[HURAKAN]

[artist]

reminds me of a pom-pom or cotton ball in that picture! lol
(I know, I know, stay on topic)
So when is the advisory due out?

[HURAKAN]

You can tell things have been slow this season. Look at all of the excitement for a TS.

You know its a slow season when an invest gets 83 pages lol. Really though, I am glad we are done playing the "Will it/won't it" game. I mean, this has been an invest since Thursday morning lol! Almost a week!

94L has been here since last week. That's mainly why 83 pages

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2009

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF ST. MAARTEN.

AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 57.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 57.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 57.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.7N 58.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.1N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.8N 63.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 25.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 57.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HAS FOUND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB AND A CLOSED...ALBEIT...BROAD
CIRCULATION. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT WITH SFMR DATA OF
ABOUT 45 KT. THUS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS FORMED WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIKA IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM SEEMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SHEAR NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FROM A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
ERIKA WEAKENING AFTER TWO DAYS DUE TO THE SHEAR. THE TWO BIG
OUTLIERS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE THE GFDL/HWRF...WHICH FORM AN
ANTICYCLONE NEAR ERIKA AND MAKE IT A HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST
WILL SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN
WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR TAKES OVER. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
BE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS OF NOTE THAT ALMOST ALL OF
THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW ERIKA EVENTUALLY BECOMING A
HURRICANE...DESPITE THE SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8...THOUGH THE CENTER APPEARS TO
HAVE DONE SOME REFORMATION SINCE YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE ERIKA TO MOVE ALONG
THAT GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...
THE STORM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN AS THE TRACK PROBABLY HAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY MOVE MORE
TO THE WEST...SIMILAR TO THE UKMET OR GFS MODELS. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY FEEL THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
MOVE MORE TO THE RIGHT...LIKE THE HWRF/GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST
IN THE LONGER-TERM.

BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN THAT AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.2N 57.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 17.7N 58.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.1N 62.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 19.8N 63.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.0N 66.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 69.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 72.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[Swimdude]

Advisory should be at 4:00 (CST)... But since they just decided to name this storm, the advisory could be a little delayed.

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

...ERIKA FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF ST. MAARTEN.

AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Advisory should be at 4:00 (CST)... But since they just decided to name this storm, the advisory could be a little delayed.

its out

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 012047
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 28 20090901
203700 1551N 05650W 9643 00403 0095 +238 +211 217040 042 028 000 03
203730 1551N 05648W 9646 00400 0094 +240 +213 217041 042 031 000 00
203800 1551N 05646W 9644 00402 0095 +241 +214 215041 042 999 999 03
203830 1551N 05643W 9644 00403 0096 +235 +216 218037 037 033 000 03
203900 1551N 05641W 9644 00402 0096 +235 +217 216037 037 034 000 03
203930 1551N 05639W 9645 00402 0097 +234 +218 216034 035 034 000 03
204000 1551N 05636W 9646 00401 0097 +235 +218 215036 037 033 000 03
204030 1551N 05634W 9646 00403 0097 +235 +218 216035 036 032 000 03
204100 1551N 05632W 9645 00404 0098 +235 +218 214035 036 032 000 00
204130 1551N 05630W 9642 00404 0098 +235 +218 212035 037 033 000 00
204200 1551N 05627W 9645 00404 0098 +235 +219 212034 035 032 000 03
204230 1551N 05625W 9645 00403 0098 +235 +219 210036 038 031 000 03
204300 1551N 05623W 9644 00405 0098 +234 +219 209036 037 032 000 03
204330 1551N 05621W 9643 00405 0098 +234 +219 209037 038 032 000 03
204400 1551N 05618W 9645 00404 0099 +233 +219 208035 037 033 003 00
204430 1552N 05616W 9646 00403 0098 +230 +219 206037 038 029 001 00
204500 1552N 05614W 9644 00406 0099 +229 +219 203038 039 031 000 00
204530 1552N 05612W 9645 00403 0099 +230 +217 201037 037 030 000 00
204600 1552N 05609W 9645 00404 0099 +231 +216 202037 039 031 000 03
204630 1552N 05607W 9649 00401 0100 +224 +215 201038 038 030 002 00
$$
;

[storms NC]

You can tell things have been slow this season. Look at all of the excitement for a TS.

Maybe it's the board's Atlantic bias...there's a monster named Jimena in the West Pacific and it's a safe bet that a bunch of people here aren't interested in it

Yes I have been. It is very rare that one goes in like that. In the Pacific they go west 99% of the time.

[Gustywind]

reminds me of a pom-pom or cotton ball in that picture! lol
(I know, I know, stay on topic)
So when is the advisory due out?

yeah my friend you're funny i have to admit, but let's take it easy in spite of its location close to the islands. Let's hope that we could be spare from that in the Leewards.

[Stormcenter]

It really does "look" impressive for a TS.

[Brent]

[HURAKAN]