ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

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fasterdisaster
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#2461 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:03 pm

She definitely is improving in appearance. Those FL winds support 55 mph. That doesn't round to fives for the knots conversion so they would keep it at 50 but at the next pass I wouldn't be surprised to see 60 mph.
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#2462 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:03 pm

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA - RECON

#2463 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:03 pm

RL3AO wrote:
StormTracker wrote:When will this data start being plugged into the models :?: :?: :?:


It won't be. Its not a NOAA G-IV flight.


of course it will.. the intensity and motion will be as well as wind field .. will likely be plugged in
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2464 Postby MGC » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:04 pm

Erika is either the fastest forming TS or it has been a TD for a while. I think the latter. Erika was likely a TD yesterday IMO. We shall see....anyway like I said a couple of days ago, pass north of the islands and get picked up by a trough, still holding to those thoughts.....MGC
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#2465 Postby Tropicswatcher » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:05 pm

deltadog03 wrote:getting back to the very deep convection firing off.



Last visible picture showing that:

Image
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#2466 Postby otowntiger » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:05 pm

deltadog03 wrote:getting back to the very deep convection firing off.
Looking at the overall picture, the center discussion notwithstanding, it sure looks like a whole lotta shear is going on. Look at the clouds blowing to the north. Unless shear relaxes any time soon, she will continue to struggle regardless of where the convection is relative to the center, in my unprofessional opinion.
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#2467 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:08 pm

This is PURELY SPECULATIVE, and should not be held by anyone as a reliable forecast since it is purely amateur, but does anyone think with the ridge building in that Erika could be a rare threat to Georgia?
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#2468 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:08 pm

There might be a bit of mid shear left, but upper level winds are really favorable right now. Notice the fannin out in all quads.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2469 Postby boca » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:08 pm

This won't be a Florida storm but the Hatteras, NC and New England will have to watch this one.That trough is just does not want to lift out so quickly so thats my reasoning for the recurve.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA - RECON

#2470 Postby StormTracker » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
StormTracker wrote:When will this data start being plugged into the models :?: :?: :?:


It won't be. Its not a NOAA G-IV flight.


of course it will.. the intensity and motion will be as well as wind field .. will likely be plugged in

Yeah, I saw an earlier post about the data not being used(NOAA G-IV), but I figured the strategy changed since the upgrade to a TS...so we'll see some changes in the models on the next couple of runs from what I'm gathering from the recon thread???
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2471 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:10 pm

boca wrote:This won't be a Florida storm but the Hatteras, NC and New England will have to watch this one.That trough is just does not want to lift out so quickly so thats my reasoning for the recurve.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I still think it will recurve east of those areas also. Maybe Novia Scotia needs to watch yet again. Also Bermuda may need to watch as well. The threat to the CONUS is very low in my opinion. The ridging this year is just very weak across the Western Atlantic, these are the kind of tracks you get as a result. For those that want a CONUS hit, this probably will not be the system...and looking at 12Z GFS the next couple of GFS Cape Verde system recurve way out in the Central Atlantic.

I do think it may be time to look towards the Western Caribbean and GOM for those looking for a CONUS threat. The models I see that go out to Sept 15th do not show any CONUS threat....and by the end of September the troughs will likely start to dig even further south.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:15 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Derek Ortt

#2472 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:12 pm

Global models do not assimilate inner-core data
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Re:

#2473 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:12 pm

deltadog03 wrote:There might be a bit of mid shear left, but upper level winds are really favorable right now. Notice the fannin out in all quads.


What happened to all the deadly shear that people were talking about last night lol?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2474 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:13 pm

deltadog03 wrote:ut upper level winds are really favorable right now. Notice the fannin out in all quads.

Just about ready to say the same thing, the cirrus is not nearly so affected as the mid level clouds. Maybe the the developing TS can start to pump up the upper level anti-cyclone.
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#2475 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:13 pm

URNT15 KNHC 012206
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 36 20090901
215700 1817N 05828W 9647 00409 0110 +220 +181 068036 038 036 000 03
215730 1815N 05828W 9646 00410 0109 +221 +182 066037 037 035 000 03
215800 1814N 05828W 9643 00412 0108 +225 +184 071038 038 034 000 03
215830 1812N 05828W 9643 00411 0106 +228 +186 071039 041 999 999 03
215900 1811N 05828W 9645 00408 0106 +229 +187 072041 042 999 999 03
215930 1809N 05828W 9640 00413 0106 +226 +189 069035 038 033 000 03
220000 1807N 05828W 9646 00407 0105 +225 +191 069036 038 034 000 03
220030 1806N 05828W 9644 00408 0104 +225 +193 069038 039 999 999 03
220100 1804N 05828W 9645 00407 0104 +226 +194 067036 038 037 000 03
220130 1802N 05828W 9638 00414 0105 +221 +195 066033 034 034 001 03
220200 1801N 05828W 9647 00404 0104 +217 +195 067037 039 036 001 03
220230 1759N 05828W 9648 00404 0103 +225 +193 067038 039 036 000 03
220300 1757N 05828W 9638 00412 0103 +221 +192 066036 037 036 000 03
220330 1756N 05828W 9646 00405 0099 +224 +192 063033 034 036 000 03
220400 1754N 05828W 9430 00587 0083 +214 +191 063030 030 999 999 03
220430 1752N 05828W 9153 00854 0097 +203 +189 062031 033 999 999 03
220500 1751N 05828W 8859 01149 0112 +190 +187 058029 030 999 999 03
220530 1749N 05828W 8557 01450 0110 +170 +170 055026 027 037 000 03
220600 1747N 05828W 8436 01575 0107 +173 +173 058026 028 035 001 00
220630 1745N 05828W 8433 01579 0105 +177 +171 052023 024 035 000 03
$$
;
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#2476 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:14 pm

Image

BOOM ... BOOM ... POW
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#2477 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:15 pm

Image

The plane appears to be leaving
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Re:

#2478 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:19 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
The plane appears to be leaving

may be ascending due to turbulence or believing the storm is intensifying...
Last edited by drezee on Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#2479 Postby StormTracker » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:19 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Global models do not assimilate inner-core data

Thanks Derek, I learned something new today! :D
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#2480 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:23 pm

I cannot recall any system that ever had such explosive bursts of convection.. this one is poised to be larger than last nights.. it beyond impressive
.. winds are probably higher than 50 .. they never sampled the deep convection.

the size is crazy.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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