Tropical Wave north of the Greater Antilles

[Sanibel]

Guess it did take the high route through the Cape Verde Islands.

[Evil Jeremy]

This will be an invest by this time tomorrow, and likely a code orange by 8PM tonight.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

Warning: This airmass image may cause the system to look more impressive but still, it looks quite good although the convection is not very strong right now. D-min is possibly the cause or some dry air.

[HURAKAN]

Another image showing the intensity of the t-storm activity

[HURAKAN]

A quikscat from this morning (if I'm wrong, please correct me) showing a very nice circulation

[Tropics Guy]

Recurve city written all over this one, the next wave to exit will come off at a lower latitude though...............

TG

[otowntiger]

Recurve city written all over this one,

the next wave to exit will come off at a lower latitude though...............

TG

Its at the same latitude the previous one was, so it will likely follow suit.

[Lurker]

Wow I couldn't disagree more......Check out Jeff Masters newest blog.......The first half of September could be very active. If these waves develop then a lot of the "lowcasters" poo poo'ing this season during June and July might hugely bust....lol

From Jeff Masters:

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

I will admit that this is the slowest the storm2k boards have been in many years(as far as traffic is concerned) during the heart of hurricane season. Not that it's a bad thing, but it just goes to show how slow the tropics are. It's amazing that we are only up to the 'D' storm and tomorrow is already September.

Not sure it is that amazing. Climatology speaking the "E" storm forms on September 5th. Now if we are are the D storm going into October then that would be amazing.

Perhaps, but I still don't see any indication based upon the current patterns, amount of shear etc, that this pattern is going to change. At least in past seasons there's often indication that things are changing. I don't see any indication of that at all right now.

[Macrocane]

Hey Lurker, why do you disagree?

[Macrocane]

Forget it, I thought you were in disagreement with Dr. Jeff Masters, but you disagree with what you quoted, right?

[HURAKAN]

113
ABNT20 KNHC 012350
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LOCATED 390 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS SPREADING
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ERIKA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

It seems that the "LLC" is over the southern part of the Cape Verde Islands and a elongated, maybe it's just a wave. Convection now developing over this area. Lets see what happens as D-max takes over

[Lurker]

Forget it, I thought you were in disagreement with Dr. Jeff Masters, but you disagree with what you quoted, right?

Right....I was responding to his claim that conditions don't seem favorable. Jeff Masters wrote a nice blog - if these waves develop then the calls for 9-10 storm season could bust.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ok, no longer under Code Yellow, what happened?

[HURAKAN]

Ok, no longer under Code Yellow, what happened?

I guess it looks too disorganized to be even mentioned

[Evil Jeremy]

Lol, 3 (at least) TWO's saying that this is getting better organized and it falls apart lol.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2009

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1014
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY...HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER SURROUNDING THE WAVE...THUS INHIBITING ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. MOST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM
5N-11N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

Poor wave. SAL is on the attack!

[HURAKAN]

Looking better this morning. We'll need to see if the convection persists.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2009

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 18N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TPW IMAGERY
INDICATE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS BEING INJECTED INTO THE WAVE
JUST S OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 34W-36W.