EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[Stratosphere747]

Definitely went through an ERC this morning. Does she have time to restrengthen before cooler water?

Possibly a few more hours. Otherwise it's about at the extent of the higher OHC.

[craptacular]

No other recon scheduled for Jimena.

They updated their "plan of the day" for tomorrow, and added another recon flight for tomorrow afternoon, when they expect Jimena to be skimming the coastline.

NOUS42 KNHC 011730 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT TUE 01 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-095 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77......NO CHANGE
A. 02/1800Z, 03/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0306A CYCLONE
C. 02/1630Z
D. 17.8N 60.7W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2355Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75......NO CHANGE
A. 03/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0406A CYCLONE
C. 03/0445Z
D. 18.5N 62.2W
E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
THROUGH AT LEAST 04/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE JIMENA - TEAL 70.....ADDED
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 03131E JIMENA
C. 03/1200Z
D. 25.1N 112.6W
E. 02/1700Z TO 02/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[HURAKAN]

Looks like weakening has continued but Jimena remains a very powerful cyclone

[HURAKAN]

798
WTPZ33 KNHC 012034
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

...JIMENA WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES CLOSER
TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF PUERTO ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND
NORTH OF MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 2 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO BAHIA KINO. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST OR ABOUT
110 MILES...175 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
210 MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE
NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...
205 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...JIMENA COULD BE
NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.9N 111.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[AdamFirst]

Looks like Cabo San Lucas will be spared.

[srainhoutx]

[Extremeweatherguy]

This video highlights just how bad some people can be at estimating wind speeds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ENtBDIRYwE

The person filming claims they are receiving "70 to 80mph winds" in Cabo.

[srainhoutx]

This video highlights just how bad some people can be at estimating wind speeds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ENtBDIRYwE

The person filming claims they are receiving "70 to 80mph winds" in Cabo.

Isn't that the truth.

[Aslkahuna]

While no storm moving up the Sea of Cortez or across Baja has caused sustained hurricane force winds in either CA or AZ, there have been some that have produced substantial TS force winds with two, Kathleen in Yuma in 1976 and Lester in Sierra Vista in 1992, that brought hurricane force wind gusts.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

677
WTPZ33 KNHC 012344
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA APPROACHING SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN SOON...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND
NORTH OF MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES...135 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND
ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO
MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE
NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...JIMENA COULD
STILL BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.6N 111.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[Aslkahuna]

One important thing to note is that although Baja California del Sur is one of the least populated of the Mexican States, most of that population is around Los Cabos.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Exactly what I said this morning!

If there is any good news is that Baja California Sur is the least populated state in Mexico

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Me ... population

[SHOXAS]

The Sea of Cortez surface water temp is pushing 90 deg. F. That will add to the Norther punch !

[HURAKAN]

Continues to weaken based on imagery

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0027 UTC WED SEP 2 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA (EP132009) 20090902 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090902 0000 090902 1200 090903 0000 090903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.6N 111.1W 24.3N 112.3W 25.8N 113.4W 26.7N 114.4W
BAMD 22.6N 111.1W 24.8N 111.6W 26.6N 111.7W 27.7N 111.3W
BAMM 22.6N 111.1W 24.7N 111.9W 26.6N 112.4W 27.8N 112.8W
LBAR 22.6N 111.1W 24.5N 112.1W 26.5N 113.3W 28.2N 113.9W
SHIP 100KTS 87KTS 80KTS 75KTS
DSHP 100KTS 87KTS 76KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090904 0000 090905 0000 090906 0000 090907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.1N 115.5W 27.1N 117.9W 27.0N 119.3W 26.3N 118.6W
BAMD 28.1N 110.5W 26.3N 108.8W 23.6N 108.2W 23.0N 107.6W
BAMM 28.2N 113.2W 28.3N 114.7W 29.5N 115.4W 31.1N 114.0W
LBAR 29.5N 114.0W 29.6N 112.8W 28.1N 111.6W 27.4N 109.9W
SHIP 68KTS 53KTS 42KTS 41KTS
DSHP 37KTS 29KTS 17KTS 17KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.6N LONCUR = 111.1W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 20.6N LONM12 = 110.5W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 18.9N LONM24 = 109.3W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 130KT
CENPRS = 960MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 110NM

$$
NNNN

[Chacor]

The Sea of Cortez surface water temp is pushing 90 deg. F. That will add to the Norther punch !

Very difficult to survive in there. Mountains on both coasts means any storm even decent in size would get torn apart by them.

[HURAKAN]

075
WTPZ43 KNHC 020259
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

SINCE THE AIR FORCE PLANE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON...VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JIMENA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL SHRINKING OF
THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FURTHERMORE...THERE HAS BEEN AN APPARENT
DETERIORATION TO THE INNER CORE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO
T4.5 AND T5.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THE
DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE BUT ALSO USING CONTINUITY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/11...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT THAN
BEFORE. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. ACCORDING TO
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...JIMENA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A FORECAST OF LOWER CONFIDENCE BEYOND 48 HOURS.
A MINORITY OF GLOBAL MODELS TAKES JIMENA NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH ONLY ONE TAKING IT INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A LARGER NUMBER OF MODEL RUNS EITHER
STALL JIMENA OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...LIKE THE GFDL...OR TURN
THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN WESTWARD INTO THE EAST PACIFIC IN
RESPONSE MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO ITS NORTH. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SHIFTED
INITIALLY TO THE RIGHT DUE TO THE CURRENT MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.
THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS
BEEN TRENDING MORE WESTWARD.

THE WEAKENING CAUSED BY AN EARLIER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS
CONTINUED...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF GRADUALLY COOLER SSTS AND
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. UW CIMSS ANALYSES SUGGESTS 10-15 KT OF
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER JIMENA...WHICH SEEMS BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE MORE
ASYMMETRIC ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE CONVECTION DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS. PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE AGREES
WELL ON A CONTINUED...STEADY WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...STRONGER
WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE CENTER TRACKING MOVING OVER LAND SHOULD LEAD
TO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING... WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLING
FOR JIMENA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR. THERE REMAINS A
CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST AFTER
LANDFALL.

INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 23.2N 111.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 24.6N 112.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 26.2N 112.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 27.3N 112.9W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/0000Z 28.0N 113.2W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/0000Z 28.5N 113.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 06/0000Z 29.5N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0000Z 30.0N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[srainhoutx]

[HURAKAN]

Going down fast

[CrazyC83]

The conditions only get less favorable from there. Water temperatures drop sharply now, and land interaction will also take its toll. Cabo San Lucas is spared though...