Cape Verde Season 101

[Anonymous]

Well, here we are at the beginning of August, a climatologically active month for the Atlantic basin. The first two months of the season were active to say the least; we had Bill develop in the Gulf, and Claudette named in the eastern Caribbean, and then Danny at the high latitudes. Additionally, there was TD2 and TD6 east of the Windwards, plus TD7 which made landfall in GA. Pretty darn active if you ask me.

And yet...I'm finding a lot of comments like these (actually, most were on _WC):
"All that unusually strong dry air will keep anything from developing."
"Everything has gone poof east of the Windwards, this may a trend this season."
"Look at all of those big upper level lows. Yuck."
"This CV season is going to be boring; conditions are too hostile."
"Andre rules domination in the central Atlantic."
"It's been just like the past few dud seasons."

While a lot of these comments are from 2 posters in particular over on that board (not naming any names), I'm getting the feeling that some people, even some over here, are agreeing and joining the DudCVSeason2003 bandwagon (correct me if I'm wrong). In any event, the truth is quite simple; the conditions out there are NOT as unfavorable as some may believe.

Let's start with climatology. Typically by this time of year, we would have seen 1-2 named storms, maybe even 1 hurricane if we're lucky. What have we seen THIS season? 4 named storms, 2 minimal hurricanes, plus 3 unnamed depressions. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. Yes, I know that 1997 had a similar tally by this date as well, and the rest of the season was a complete dud. BUT...look at the origins of all of that season's early storms:

Subtropical Storm 1: Its designation says it all
Tropical Storm Ana: Brief storm, developed off the Carolinas from a cold front.
Cat 1 Hurricane Bill: Brief storm, developed south of Bermuda from an upper low.
Tropical Storm Claudette: Brief storm, like Ana, developed off the Carolinas from a cold front.
Cat 1 Hurricane Danny: Developed from a cold front that dipped down into the Gulf.
Tropical Depression Five: Developed east of the Windward Islands from a wave, then dissipated shortly afterwards.

Sans that one small TD, all of the pre-August systems in 1997 had completely NON-tropical origins north of 25N. El Nino type pattern? You betcha. Now, compare that with THIS year's activity to date...

Tropical Storm Ana: Developed off a front near Bermuda, about the only option in APRIL.
Tropical Depression Two: Formed and died east of the Lesser Antilles, but would you expect anything to survive out there in EARLY JUNE?
Tropical Storm Bill: Formed from a tropical wave/upper low interaction in the Gulf.
Cat 1 Hurricane Claudette: Developed from a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean.
Cat 1 Hurricane Danny: Developed in the high latitudes from a large amplitude tropical wave.
Tropical Depression Six: Developed east of the Windwards from a tropical wave, dissipated two days later.
Tropical Depression Seven: Formed off the GA coast from the same tropical wave that spawned TD6.

Notice any difference? The majority of the activity so far this season has been from tropical waves; not from frontal systems as seen in 1997. Those of you who have been using 1997 as a pathetic excuse need to go beyond the numbers and analyze the origins; in this case, it makes all the difference.

Let me repeat the total amount of activity up to this date; 4 named storms, 2 minimal hurricanes, plus 3 unnamed depressions. Ana was the only one that didn't come from a tropical wave (it was in APRIL).

Let's talk about dry air. That has also been an excuse for a dud CV season. I'm going to state this short, sweet, and to the point...THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT WE'RE SEEING IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. Actually, I've seen MORE dry air out there in late July/early August than there is now. For crying out loud, we just had the best July in a long time...for a reason? DUH! If the air was as dry as a normally would be, we probably wouldn't have seen as much activity as we did a few weeks go.

And like I stated above, the atmospheric conditions aren't anything like 1997...so the conditions will only become MORE favorable like they USUALLY do as the month progresses. I mean come on, the Cape Verde season doesn't climatologically begin until August 15. When was the last time you saw a storm form east of the Windwards in July and survive? I can answer that...Bertha 1996. And before that, Dean 1989. Before THAT, Allen 1980. You see, it's not common to get a decent CV storm in the month of July.

Upper level lows...I'm not even going to go into depth on those. Normal normal normal. The amount of upper lows spinning out there were also present in the past 6 seasons in early August. Nuff said.

Speaking of the past seasons...let's take another look at 2000, 2001 and 2002 (which some are comparing this season to).

2000...a calm CV season? YOU WISH! That year featured 8 classified tropical systems east of the Windwards. In terms of quantity, 2000 featured a rather active CV season. However, that season has been referred to as boring and eventless. I'm not going to argue with that...2000 WAS rather boring. The reason being is that 6 out of the 8 CV systems were short lived and dissipated as they moved through or near the Caribbean islands. The 2 survivors, Alberto and Isaac, were major hurricanes, and, curving well away from land, became classic fishes. Why did the other 6 die out? Because they had to face the unusually strong tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), which stretches from the eastern Caribbean to the central Atlantic. In 2000, the easterly QBO winds plus the high eastern Caribbean SLPAs amplified the TUTT to the superstrong status. The consequence was more westerly shear, and thus, dissipating tropical cyclones. The SAL did manage to kill one storm that year (Joyce), but otherwise, the culprit was mostly the TUTT. Interestingly enough, had the TUTT not been as strong as it was, then the US east coast would have taken a SERIOUS beating.

2001 also had a pretty busy CV season, with 6 classified systems forming east of the Windwards. However, like 2000, a lot of these storms struggled. 2 of them dissipated completely, and many others briefly did as well, only to regenerate a day or two later. None of the 6 systems became hurricanes south of 20N and east of 60W...Erin and Felix did strengthen once they moved into the high latitudes, and Iris strengthened once in the Caribbean. Not exactly the graveyard like 2000, but it was quite heartbreaking to watch all of them on life support. What was the culprit here? It wasn't the TUTT...but more of the Azores High. The summer of 2001 featured a rather strong Azores High, which in turn increased the easterly flow. Hence, a lot of the storms moved too fast to rapidly intensify. The SAL may have played a minor role as well, though it wasn't the main inhibitor.

Ahh yes...2002. No question about it, this CV season was a dud to begin with. Only 2 systems formed east of the Windwards (Dolly and Lili). Dolly struggled and then dissipated, and Lili didn't intensity until it was in the western Caribbean. There were 3 major culprits this season...El Nino, strong Azores High, and weak Atlantic thermahaline circulation. With all 3 of these major factors being against storm formation, it comes to no surprise that there wasn't much CV activity in 2002.

In other words, the past three seasons have had their own inhibitors. 2000 and 2001 were indeed active CV years, but the TUTT (2000) and Azores High (2001) prevented them from becoming dangerous years. And 2002 just had so many surpressing factors in the first place.

What is my point, you ask? Many people have been saying that this year will be like the past 3...and I'm simply pointing out that a CV season as active as 2000 and 2001 would be substantial, as many aren't aware that they were active to begin with. So far this season the TUTT hasn't been nearly as strong as it was in 2000, and the eastern Caribbean SLPAs have been much lower. So it's unlikely that we'll see another strong TUTT. And the Azores High has been running, overall, average to slightly weaker than average this season. And unlike last year, there is no El Nino, and the thermahaline circulation is running strong.

About the CV storm pattern we've seen so far this season...

TD2...convection got blown off to the north, and the LLC collapsed shortly afterwards.
Wave (later became Claudette)...convection weakened considerably, though it regained organization and ultimately became Claudette south of DR.
TD6...outflow pattern became very poor, LLC collapsed soon afterwards.
Wave that's still out there...convection displaced to the east, then weakened, which lead to yet another LLC collapse.

What's been the victim so far this year?

Is it an anomalously strong TUTT? NO.
Is it an anomalously strong Azores High? NO.
Is it anomalously strong SAL? NO.
Is it anomalously dry air? NO.

What has it been then?
ANSWER...ALL OF THE ABOVE.
And not anomalously so...but climatologically so.

TD2 was blasted by strong westerly shear driven by the TUTT (it was EARLY JUNE)
The wave that later became Claudette dealt with dry air more than anything.
TD6 was mostly killed by its fast forward motion.
The wave that's still out there became disorganized due to easterly shear.

The TUTT, the dry air, the fast motion, the easterly shear...CAN YOU SAY JULY? That's right. JULY. It hasn't been just one factor in particular, it's been the combination of many, which are playing the inhibiting role as they ALWAYS are in July. I for one am still in shock about how much tropical activity we've already seen, which obviously indicates that the conditions are more favorable than usual. Seeing these doom-and-gloom posts over just one wave at this time of year is ridiculous. Let me remind you, we're just now in the beginning of August, still a bit early to see real action. Repeating again, the CV season climatologically begins on August 15. As the month progresses, conditions will be (and are) improving. If you look at 1998 and 1999 (two VERY active seasons), they didn't see any real CV action until the second half of August. In fact, if we didn't see Erika form until August 30, we'd still be AHEAD of 1998 in terms of activity!

2003 is already at a head start, and I see no reason why we would see less activity from here on out. No I'm not saying the CV season will be the most active ever, but I do expect an above average one nonetheless. The favorable pattern is there...and the past month's activity proves it.

[Rainband]

I think everybody has the right to post their opinion..wether it be doom and gloom or..active season.. I know I don't have alot of experience when it comes to tropical weather..you seem to..I just go by what I see and hear..and alot of people are saying the SAL will have alot to do with this years numbers Not to mention..seems like La NINA will be a no show... I guess time will tell wether or not this years predictions will verify..thanks for your knowledge and your opinion

[Stormsfury]

Supercane (Rob) summed it up in one outstanding post ...

We are heading into the heart of the season, and we've already had 4 storms, 2 minimal hurricanes, and 3 depressions ... and it just August 3rd.

The SAL (Dry air) has been on the wane as well in the last several days ... and waves that are coming off the coast of Africa continue and some are very impressive ...

Furthermore, with the waves that continue to come off the coast of Africa, the pattern would favor a long track system later in the season, and possibly a blockbuster storm as well ... it's just a matter of time, folks.

Once again, outstanding post, Rob.

SF

One other note: 1995 was more of a NEUTRAL/La NADA year. So it doesn't take a La Niña to be an active season.

[Rainband]

Thanks SF..I guess we will see :o Like I said..I just go by what the experts were saying..so I made the corilation with La nina and active season But what do I know..I am learning though

[Stormsfury]

Thanks SF..I guess we will see :o Like I said..I just go by what the experts were saying..so I made the corilation with La nina and active season But what do I know..I am learning though

It's interesting about the teleconnection about La Nada and La Niña. Both can tend to favor more active seasons, however, in the case of La Niña, those seasons favor more intense hurricanes. Look at 1996, and 1998 for prime examples on the ratio of number of majors vs. number of storms.

SF

[Anonymous]

Thanks! Rainband, as SF said, you don't need a La Nina for an active season. As long as there's no El Nino, you're probably in good shape. As for the SAL, it's no worse than it has been in the past several seasons. It's just being hyped more on the boards since the NHC decided to mention it in one of their discussions.

[southerngale]

Fantastic post Supercane!! I read it all and feel like I just got out of class.

Anyway, thanks! I learned something today.

[Rainband]

Thanks! Rainband, as SF said, you don't need a La Nina for an active season. As long as there's no El Nino, you're probably in good shape. As for the SAL, it's no worse than it has been in the past several seasons. It's just being hyped more on the boards since the NHC decided to mention it in one of their discussions.

I understand that..I guess I need to listen to a select group of people that know what they are talking about!!! I am still learning and it's difficult sometimes to see through what is heresay and what is knowledge. At any rate we shall see what happens in a few weeks. Alot of the problem I feel is people got a taste of the "early" activity this year and now they are wanting more..As you said the conditions that we are seeing right now are normal for this time frame and they will see that soon enough..Thanks for your knowledge and patience with us novices..ie ME!!!

[wx247]

Very goof post Supercane. I thoroughly enjoyed it and learned quite a bit. Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us!

[Anonymous]

No problem, Rainband. Again, I think everyone has been putting too much emphasis on SAL lately...it's not any stronger than it usually is. Unlike many factors, the SAL is not known to vary as much from year to year. BTW, thanks all for the kind comments.

[chadtm80]

FANTASTIC POST Supercane!!!! Thanks for the lil Lesson there... Greatly appreciated Always enjoy reading IWIC's take!!

[JetMaxx]

Well said Rob...if folks think this season is a dud...just wait a few weeks and hold onto their hats..

What I'm about to say is is VERY IMPORTANT if you live along the Atlantic or Gulf Coast...climatologically, INTENSE hurricane season hasn't even arrived yet.

Between 1900-2002...only 2 major hurricanes struck the U.S. in June (in 1934 and 1957-Audrey). Only 3 struck the U.S. in July (1909, 1916, and 1936) during the same time span.

There haven't been very many landfalling major hurricanes on U.S. shores during the first half of August either...since 1900, it's only happened in 1918, 1932, 1955 (Connie), 1970 (Celia); and Allen in 1980 -- only five (5) times in 103 years.....the earliest the Atlantic Coast has ever experienced a major landfalling hurricane was August 12...Connie in 1955 -- the others to make landfall before August 15th ALL struck the Gulf Coast west of Panama City Beach, Florida between the Florida Panhandle and South Texas...none east of longitude 86 W.

For those living in south and central Florida...the EARLIEST a major hurricane has ever struck the Florida peninsula was August 16-17th...in 1880. Hurricane Andrew on August 24, 1992 was the earliest in the season major SoFla hurricane in over 110 years. There's a reason old timers in the Sunshine State have a saying....part of it goes "SEPTEMBER REMEMBER" :o :o

NOW is the time to finish making preparations...time to find out IF you should evacuate, and if so...a PRIMARY and SECONDARY evacuation route -- now before there's a 130 mph hurricane bearing down on your area.

The major hurricane season is coming....and what we've witnessed so far...above normal activity, and a 95-100 mph damaging hurricane (Claudette) to Texas could only be a fraction of what comes down the pike in the next two months.

One more point: Everyone IMO focuses too much on "Cape Verde" hurricanes. Neither category 5 hurricanes Camille or the 1935 Labor Day hurricane were Cape Verde storms....neither were Gilbert or Mitch :o :o

PW

[ameriwx2003]

Supercane and Jetmaxx. Outstanding posts!! and well said. Every year this discussion is brought up, hostile conditions dry air etc. less then perfect conditions are normal during the early months. Getting to the 4th named storm at this time of the year is a bonus. If you look at climatology around August 15th things really start to pick up. I am looking for a nice graph that highlights that and can't find it. Jettmaxx. oustanding point about not all big storms are Cape Verde systems. I took a look at point of orgin of hurricanes that hit Florida and was surprised to find the number of non-Cape verde systems. Anyways, great points and I have a feeling in a few weeks the talk of a slow season will be forgotten.
Also, this is the link I used to do a little research into hurricane point of orgins.. Alot of people know about this site but if not and you have some free time its worth browsing:):)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html

[ameriwx2003]

Heres a link from the good old TPC site that shows some climo data.:)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

[cycloneye]

Rob congrats for an excellent post about the CV season and that was the best post I haved seen noy only here but at other boards because it was a complete anaylisis of all the factors and climo combined so again Rob what you did posting that was A+.

[Anonymous]

Thanks again y'all. Perry, you brought up a good point. A handful of the worst storms in the past formed west of 60W in the GOM, Caribbean, or western Atlantic. "It doesn't take a bad CV season to make a bad season." lol thats gotta be a new one.

[Lindaloo]

Excellent posts Supercane and Jetmaxx. All the hurricanes to make landfall near the MS Coast have either occurred in mid-August or mid-Sept. and they always strike around Labor Day here for some reason. What took us by surprise was Georges. He came ashore in late September.

[ColdFront77]

Exactly right. Tropical cyclones that develop near the Cape Verde Islands may only strengthen so much, while the systems much closer to the United States can gain strength and make landfall as a stronger storm.

The only thing about Cape Verde storms is that they are long tracking storms.

[Andrew92]

Thanks again y'all. Perry, you brought up a good point. A handful of the worst storms in the past formed west of 60W in the GOM, Caribbean, or western Atlantic. "It doesn't take a bad CV season to make a bad season." lol thats gotta be a new one.

I was only a year old for this season I'm about to mention, but I'm thinking about the 1985 season as a prime example of that.....6 hurricane landfalls!!! And only ONE CV system!

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... index.html

But seriously, I think this year will be an active CV year too.

-Andrew92