ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[gatorcane]

interesting 11AM disco....they mention this (without saying a weaker system or anything...means they are considering the possibility of a significant system heading more west?)

ERIKA SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW. BOTH THE UK AND THE GFS TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
WHICH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL OPTIONS.

this disco does not give me much confidence at all if you ask me

[Aric Dunn]

interesting 11AM disco....they mention this (without saying a weaker system or anything...)

ERIKA SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW. BOTH THE UK AND THE GFS TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
WHICH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL OPTIONS.

this disco does not give me much confidence at all if you ask me:

well it should not since they are not confident either .. cause the timing is going to play probably the most important role ..
with steering being so un predicable 5 hours here and 6 hours there that it just sits or wanders in circles .. the better chance it has to miss the trough completely..

[Sanibel]

Pumping another d-max black IR burst.

Shear or no shear always watch black IR systems upstream from you.


Why did SSD take the Floater off Erika?

[gatorcane]

hmmm

I see well I am really counting on the East-coast perma-trough that has been around all summer to save Florida and the CONUS for that matter again...

How come that disco gives me less confidence? Anyway, still going with a recurve east of Bahamas....

[Evil Jeremy]

interesting 11AM disco....they mention this (without saying a weaker system or anything...means they are considering the possibility of a significant system heading more west?)

ERIKA SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW. BOTH THE UK AND THE GFS TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
WHICH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL OPTIONS.

this disco does not give me much confidence at all if you ask me

Thats funny, I didnt read the 11 AM disco. Did you find it in their internal files lol? Just kidding of course. Anyways, it sounds like they are giving it the possibility, as with as many variables as we have in Erika's future potential path, there are many different scenarios, and it is to early to start shutting down options for Erika.

[gatorcane]

yup unfortunately not as clear cut still...

[gatorcane]

In the 5PM disco they mentioned weaker system would head west...I wonder if the NHC has some 00Z models we don't see yet that have shifted a good deal left? Or more likely, it is not relevant at this time to discuss weak for strong system any longer.

The fact they mention the Azores-Bermuda High only builds west a little bit is a clue on a recurve thinking is my guess.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thats what I was thinking as well Aric. Not a good thing if you wanted to see her start a definite move. Seems this slow movement will keep us and all the models debating through tomorrow at the least.

[Aric Dunn]

Thats what I was thinking as well Aric. Not a good thing if you wanted to see her start a definite move. Seems this slow movement will keep us and all the models debating through tomorrow at the least.

yep we are just left to wait and see whats going to happen over the next 24 hours.

[gatorcane]

Has anybody noticed the 00Z NAM at the 300MB level builds some heights now over the Northern Bahamas? In the 18Z those heights were not there.



18Z:

['CaneFreak]

Its funny because the location of that dry air that was pointed out on another page a while back I pointed out earlier this week Remarkably it is still there...

[lrak]

The giant burst of convection looks cool on the satellite loop. The water loop is even better!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[Derek Ortt]

it's going to depend where the UL cuts off near Hispaniola. WV is showing it cutting off near Hispaniola. That would give credence to the CMC solution of multiple outflow jets (though it should be to the SW not SE.

[Aric Dunn]

Has anybody noticed the 00Z NAM at the 300MB level builds some heights now over the Northern Bahamas? In the 18Z those heights were not there.

yep .. and the NAM has been doing a decent job with this thus far .. since yesterady..

also the earlier runs had a good upper environment and a strong system on a wnw track.. now there is a much weaker system on pretty much the same track

which say its building in the rirdge and weaken the trough before Erika can get to the weakness so its strength is playing less of a role since the heights are building..

[weatherwindow]

New forecast is out. 24.5N/71W at 120 hrs - same as 21Z. 50 kts now.

57...compare the forecast/advisories....2100(5pm)..25.0N/72.0N....0300(11pm)...24.5N/71.0W....a smidge south and east......regards, rich

[Aric Dunn]

nice long loop over the last 24 hours..

shows mostly wnw movement.. of about 280 -290

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... nimir.html

[Gustywind]

[Sanibel]

Black IR means energy:

[Evil Jeremy]

nice long loop over the last 24 hours..

shows mostly wnw movement.. of about 280 -290

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... nimir.html

Its really cool looking back at this system over the past couple of days and watching its progress.

[Aric Dunn]

we should see another burst of convection to the NW of that giant ball of convection ..

.. hopefully we get some images before the eclipse of it..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html