ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

[knotimpaired]

Google earth now has Erica 88 miles north of Vieques although NWS in San Juan has not issued any warnings/watches as of yet.

[HURAKAN]

708
URNT15 KNHC 021014
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 40 20090902
100500 1512N 06019W 8430 01583 0105 +180 +159 284013 014 011 002 00
100530 1510N 06021W 8429 01585 0107 +178 +159 284014 014 009 002 00
100600 1509N 06022W 8429 01586 0108 +178 +159 281014 015 010 002 00
100630 1508N 06023W 8428 01585 0109 +178 +159 297012 013 005 003 00
100700 1506N 06024W 8436 01580 0110 +178 +158 286014 015 005 003 03
100730 1505N 06024W 8433 01584 0111 +180 +158 276015 016 006 002 03
100800 1503N 06024W 8426 01590 0110 +180 +157 266015 016 999 999 03
100830 1503N 06022W 8428 01589 0110 +180 +157 257014 015 002 003 03
100900 1503N 06020W 8433 01584 0110 +180 +157 260013 014 010 001 00
100930 1503N 06018W 8429 01588 0107 +185 +157 257015 015 009 002 00
101000 1503N 06016W 8430 01585 0107 +182 +157 252014 015 010 001 00
101030 1504N 06014W 8430 01585 0107 +181 +157 255015 016 006 003 00
101100 1504N 06012W 8429 01585 0104 +185 +157 253016 016 006 003 00
101130 1504N 06010W 8430 01584 0104 +184 +157 253016 017 009 002 00
101200 1504N 06008W 8429 01583 0101 +185 +158 251017 017 007 003 00
101230 1504N 06006W 8430 01582 0101 +185 +158 252016 016 011 001 00
101300 1504N 06004W 8429 01582 0102 +182 +158 252016 016 006 003 00
101330 1504N 06002W 8430 01579 0102 +180 +159 251015 016 010 001 00
101400 1504N 06000W 8429 01582 0102 +181 +158 252016 016 011 001 00
101430 1504N 05958W 8425 01586 0102 +180 +158 251016 016 011 000 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Even though,there are no watches or warnings in Puerto Rico,yet,I will start preparations in my home today.

[xironman]

no surprise, its not a well developed system, honestly it may never get very well developed based on the environment now and the future

What about the current environment is that bad? Shear seems to have dropped off a bit, upper level divergence and lower level convergence are much better aligned. I just think the explosive round of convection disrupted its formation, and given enough time it will come back together.

[Evil Jeremy]

06z GFS landfall at looks like the Broward County Florida area:

[HURAKAN]

633
URNT15 KNHC 021024
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 41 20090902
101500 1504N 05956W 8430 01582 0102 +181 +158 250015 016 003 003 00
101530 1504N 05954W 8426 01583 0099 +184 +158 251015 016 004 002 00
101600 1504N 05952W 8430 01579 0100 +182 +158 251016 016 001 004 00
101630 1504N 05950W 8426 01583 0102 +179 +159 249015 016 004 002 00
101700 1504N 05948W 8428 01580 0104 +174 +160 248016 017 010 001 00
101730 1504N 05945W 8429 01579 0102 +175 +161 248016 017 008 002 00
101800 1504N 05943W 8433 01574 0103 +175 +163 248017 017 008 002 00
101830 1504N 05940W 8429 01579 0102 +173 +164 243017 017 008 002 00
101900 1504N 05938W 8433 01574 0105 +170 +165 242017 017 011 002 03
101930 1505N 05936W 8430 01577 0103 +171 +165 240018 018 009 002 00
102000 1505N 05933W 8433 01574 0103 +172 +166 247018 018 008 003 03
102030 1505N 05931W 8425 01582 0101 +173 +166 251017 018 011 001 00
102100 1505N 05928W 8432 01575 0105 +170 +166 247017 017 010 001 00
102130 1505N 05926W 8429 01579 0106 +170 +167 245017 018 009 001 00
102200 1505N 05924W 8429 01579 0107 +169 +167 247017 018 006 002 00
102230 1505N 05921W 8430 01579 0107 +170 +166 245017 018 011 001 00
102300 1504N 05919W 8429 01582 0109 +170 +166 244016 017 012 001 00
102330 1504N 05917W 8429 01582 0110 +168 +167 245015 016 011 002 00
102400 1504N 05914W 8430 01580 0109 +169 +167 239016 016 017 001 00
102430 1504N 05912W 8433 01578 0110 +167 +167 240016 017 020 001 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 020859
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN SEARCHING
FOR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED
TRACK. HOWEVER THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE
MULTIPLE CENTERS...SO THE ADVISORY POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
PROBABLY REPRESENTS A MEAN CENTER...OR THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THE INITIAL MOTION...270/4...IS OF
COURSE ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWING THE TRACK GUIDANCE...A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED TO RESUME. ERIKA SHOULD BE
STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE...E.G. THE
GFDL AND HWRF...AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A
WEAKER SYSTEM...E.G. THE GFS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK
FORECAST.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ERIKA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE...
WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF
THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN
DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FARTHER TO THE WEST IS
LIKELY TO IMPART INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON ERIKA...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...BUT BELOW THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SOME OF THESE NUMERICAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL...
HAVE SHOWN A HIGH BIAS FOR A COUPLE OF THIS YEAR'S ATLANTIC
TROPICAL CYCLONES.

GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 17.0N 59.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 17.3N 60.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 17.8N 61.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 18.4N 62.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 19.0N 64.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 20.3N 66.9W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 22.0N 69.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 72.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

1st visible of our Erika

[OURAGAN]

it seems to me that the center is at 17N/60 W on radar guadeloupe

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/Radars.ph ... portee=200

[jlauderdal]

Even though,there are no watches or warnings in Puerto Rico,yet,I will start preparations in my home today.

cerveza, Arroz con pollo, cerveza,

[HURAKAN]

730
URNT15 KNHC 021034
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 42 20090902
102500 1504N 05909W 8429 01584 0111 +167 +167 237016 017 017 002 00
102530 1504N 05907W 8429 01585 0112 +169 +165 240018 018 019 000 00
102600 1504N 05905W 8430 01584 0117 +161 +161 246017 018 014 002 00
102630 1504N 05902W 8428 01586 0120 +152 +152 253018 019 017 003 00
102700 1504N 05900W 8429 01584 0122 +157 +152 243018 020 018 003 00
102730 1504N 05857W 8434 01580 0133 +140 +140 233019 020 022 005 00
102800 1505N 05855W 8438 01579 0124 +159 +141 227016 017 023 003 00
102830 1505N 05853W 8429 01589 0119 +169 +138 233017 018 016 003 00
102900 1505N 05850W 8429 01591 0125 +162 +138 239018 019 015 002 00
102930 1505N 05848W 8426 01594 0128 +158 +139 240020 022 022 003 03
103000 1506N 05846W 8438 01583 0138 +143 +138 233016 019 037 010 00
103030 1506N 05844W 8428 01594 0124 +168 +136 238016 016 015 002 00
103100 1506N 05841W 8430 01591 0125 +167 +136 233017 019 010 002 00
103130 1506N 05839W 8429 01594 0124 +171 +137 236020 020 006 003 00
103200 1506N 05837W 8429 01594 0123 +173 +140 238022 022 007 002 00
103230 1507N 05835W 8438 01588 0139 +150 +144 230022 023 012 006 03
103300 1507N 05833W 8428 01597 0135 +156 +144 230019 019 018 004 03
103330 1506N 05831W 8430 01596 0127 +171 +141 234021 021 021 002 00
103400 1506N 05829W 8430 01596 0129 +170 +140 230021 022 018 001 00
103430 1506N 05827W 8428 01600 0126 +174 +141 231023 023 018 002 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

it seems to me that the center is at 17N/60 W on radar guadeloupe

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/Radars.ph ... portee=200

Absolutely or even at 16,7N, code orange has been issued for the Northern Leewards but nothing in Guadeloupe, even an yellow alert... We should continue to monitor plus than closely this Fat Lady. Speaking about Erika

[HURAKAN]

517
URNT15 KNHC 021044
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 43 20090902
103500 1505N 05824W 8433 01595 0133 +165 +143 238023 025 019 003 00
103530 1505N 05822W 8426 01601 0131 +167 +144 240025 025 020 004 00
103600 1504N 05820W 8429 01596 0125 +173 +142 240025 026 021 003 00
103630 1504N 05818W 8433 01591 0125 +171 +140 239027 028 020 003 00
103700 1503N 05816W 8429 01595 0127 +168 +140 239026 027 022 004 00
103730 1503N 05814W 8430 01595 0130 +162 +141 241026 027 024 006 00
103800 1502N 05812W 8458 01566 0132 +164 +142 238024 025 026 009 00
103830 1502N 05810W 8422 01599 0126 +165 +141 233023 024 015 006 03
103900 1502N 05808W 8451 01572 0130 +161 +140 229020 021 019 014 00
103930 1502N 05806W 8419 01603 0129 +164 +138 229022 022 999 999 03
104000 1503N 05805W 8425 01594 0125 +162 +138 227029 035 029 008 03
104030 1504N 05803W 8435 01582 0119 +166 +139 223027 029 042 009 00
104100 1506N 05802W 8418 01600 0132 +149 +139 228026 031 040 018 00
104130 1507N 05800W 8422 01595 0138 +141 +138 245012 017 038 016 00
104200 1508N 05759W 8421 01597 0137 +145 +135 174003 006 041 012 00
104230 1509N 05758W 8435 01585 0132 +156 +131 115007 010 041 014 00
104300 1511N 05757W 8430 01592 0138 +147 +128 326012 017 037 015 03
104330 1511N 05755W 8428 01596 0140 +147 +127 325016 017 045 017 03
104400 1511N 05754W 8438 01586 0142 +144 +125 309013 015 035 022 03
104430 1512N 05752W 8422 01602 0137 +152 +123 282014 017 037 017 03

[tolakram]

If you watch this loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

A buoy reported winds out of the SW way down around 58,14. Frame 204.

So where is Erika?

[baitism]

This is starting to be reminiscent of Danny. Must be from the same stock.

[HURAKAN]

367
URNT15 KNHC 021054
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 44 20090902
104500 1513N 05750W 8438 01588 0125 +174 +120 289019 021 034 014 03
104530 1514N 05750W 8420 01605 0126 +171 +119 282012 013 026 006 03
104600 1516N 05750W 8434 01589 0126 +172 +122 277014 016 019 007 03
104630 1517N 05751W 8429 01597 0128 +169 +124 258015 018 030 006 00
104700 1518N 05752W 8427 01596 0124 +175 +126 248013 015 030 006 00
104730 1519N 05753W 8439 01586 0125 +172 +127 243012 014 029 007 03
104800 1520N 05755W 8425 01599 0127 +169 +128 238015 018 026 007 00
104830 1520N 05756W 8427 01596 0123 +174 +127 242016 017 025 006 00
104900 1520N 05758W 8434 01590 0121 +178 +127 244018 020 025 006 00
104930 1521N 05759W 8424 01599 0123 +174 +127 249013 015 023 006 00
105000 1521N 05801W 8432 01590 0120 +177 +128 232012 014 025 006 03
105030 1521N 05803W 8429 01592 0117 +181 +128 238008 009 024 006 00
105100 1521N 05804W 8436 01586 0120 +179 +130 271012 014 023 006 00
105130 1521N 05806W 8431 01591 0119 +178 +131 251013 016 017 006 03
105200 1522N 05807W 8427 01591 0124 +167 +133 223018 022 017 010 03
105230 1523N 05808W 8432 01590 0124 +168 +134 218023 024 022 008 00
105300 1525N 05809W 8426 01594 0124 +167 +134 214021 022 020 008 03
105330 1526N 05810W 8429 01590 0122 +169 +134 216017 018 025 010 03
105400 1527N 05811W 8432 01586 0120 +170 +133 213016 017 024 010 00
105430 1529N 05812W 8432 01586 0119 +170 +133 206015 015 026 009 00
$$
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