Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 020245
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2009

...ERIKA MOVING VERY SLOWLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST OR ABOUT 365
MILES...585 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.5N 57.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 020246
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2009

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING ERIKA AND
FOUND THAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A DROP WAS 1004 MB. THIS VALUE COULD
BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER SINCE THE DROP MEASURED 19 KNOTS AT THE
SURFACE. THE SFMR AND THE PLANE MEASURED 55 AND 50 KNOTS...
RESPECTIVELY...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE
HIGH-CLOUD MOTION THAT THE SHEAR HAS LESSENED A LITTLE BIT. ERIKA
COULD STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS OVER
ERIKA...A PATTERN THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. IN
FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THAT PERIOD
AS OPPOSED TO THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT BOTH MAKE ERIKA A STRONG
HURRICANE.

ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF THE CYCLONE BEING IN ITS FORMATIVE
STAGE. ERIKA IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THE
AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD A LITTLE
BIT...ERIKA SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK.
SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT VERY STRONG....ERIKA SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW. BOTH THE UK AND THE GFS TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
WHICH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL OPTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 17.5N 57.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.0N 58.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 18.5N 60.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 19.0N 61.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 19.5N 63.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 21.0N 66.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 22.6N 68.4W 45 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 24.5N 71.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Gustywind]

Good night all...and be vigilant anything can happen with this Fat Lady (erractic movements could happen?!we never knows) with Erika, if this trend continues that reminds me Lenny in 1999, humm not to pleasant. Msbee and all the others be on your guard!
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Bursting and bursting, she's HUGE, convection is expanding and reaches Barbados latitude! even Grenada, no?!

[Gustywind]

All the night Erika has moved curiously wsw, and thus west right now. Not good news for us in Guadeloupe and all the Leewards. If this trend continues we could have warnings during the day...something to watch very carefully islanders.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST WED SEP 2 2009

...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR RESIDENTS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
OUR AREA...HOWEVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AS THEY ARE IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS STORM...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS
THIS STORM CONTINUES IT TRACK WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM AST...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 17.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 280 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD NEAR 5 MPH AND A WEST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ERIKA
IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO EARLY FRIDAY.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHILE THE CURRENT TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO
THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY AND WATCHES
OR WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TRACKS NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF YOU ARE IN
A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD FIND OUT WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD
BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF FLOODING.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET.

IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AS INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-
031000-
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.S.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
559 AM AST WED SEP 2 2009

...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...NEW INFORMATION...
STORM STATUS...POSITION AND SPEED.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EVEN IF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TRACKS NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF YOU ARE IN
A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD FIND OUT WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD
BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF FLOODING.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET.

IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AS INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.

&&

...INLAND FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA AS IT PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MAINTAIN VIGILANCE AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.


...MARINE...
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

$$

FIGUEROA

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020905
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST WED SEP 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN WAS DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
IN THE MORNING OVER LAND AREAS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SLOWLY TO THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS BANDS OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA APPROACH TO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST.

ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GLOBAL
FORECAST MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUE TO
BRING ERIKA CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO... THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
CURRENT TRACK MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

AT 2 AM AST...WEDNESDAY MORNING...ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS NEW POSITION IS ROUGHLY 50 TO 60
MILES TO THE SOUTH OF 11 PM AST...TUESDAY EVENING POSITION. ERIKA
APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH EARLY IN THE
MORNING...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
LATER THIS MORNING. IF THE CHANGE IN THE MOTION DO NOT
MATERIALIZE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND/OR WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR OUR REGION. FOR THAT REASON...INTERESTS IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

THE GFS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST MODEL SUGGESTS PWAT
VALUES UP TO 2.63 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS REASONING THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING ALSO SUGGESTS PWAT
VALUES OF 1.85 INCHES BY THURSDAY...INCREASING STEADILY UP TO
2.30 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED.

[fd122]

Here is what it looks like in Antigua this early morning.

[Gustywind]

[b]ERIKA EAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS...[/b]

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 020856
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2009

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 59.0W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......105NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 59.0W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 58.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 60.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.8N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.4N 62.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 64.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 66.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 59.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 020857
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...DISORGANIZED ERIKA LIKELY TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0
WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.0N 59.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 020859
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN SEARCHING
FOR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED
TRACK. HOWEVER THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE
MULTIPLE CENTERS...SO THE ADVISORY POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
PROBABLY REPRESENTS A MEAN CENTER...OR THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THE INITIAL MOTION...270/4...IS OF
COURSE ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWING THE TRACK GUIDANCE...A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED TO RESUME. ERIKA SHOULD BE
STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE...E.G. THE
GFDL AND HWRF...AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A
WEAKER SYSTEM...E.G. THE GFS. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK
FORECAST.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ERIKA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE...
WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF
THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN
DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FARTHER TO THE WEST IS
LIKELY TO IMPART INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON ERIKA...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...BUT BELOW THE
CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT SOME OF THESE NUMERICAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL...
HAVE SHOWN A HIGH BIAS FOR A COUPLE OF THIS YEAR'S ATLANTIC
TROPICAL CYCLONES.

GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INITIAL 02/0900Z 17.0N 59.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 17.3N 60.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 17.8N 61.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 18.4N 62.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 19.0N 64.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 20.3N 66.9W 50 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 22.0N 69.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 72.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

From stormcarib.com (weather site).

Famous last words
From: "Wild in Grenada" <Chris at wildingrenada.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2009 06:56:08 -0400

This weird storm appears to have changed direction! The latest satellite images are showing a distinct movement in a SW direction. I take my comments back from yesterday. Many comments on the Jeff Masters Blog are noticing the same.

Barbados is getting 21 MPH SWerly winds. NHC haven't made any comments yet (par for the course on this storm). They are still showing predicted paths that are hours old and moving NW. It does seem that all warnings seem to be coming from amateurs in the islands.

Hopefully this is just a blip in it's course, but suggest looking around your property and tidy up loose items, just in case.

I am going out now to check my hurricane shutter bolts have not rusted!

I will update this as soon as I see an official comment.

Hogan of Grenada

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 020927
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST WED SEP 2 2009

PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER FRINGES OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA CONTINUED TO SLOWLY MOVE IN ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVED ACROSS THE REGION AND BRIEFLY AFFECTED ONE OR
TWO OF THE ISLANDS PRODUCING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. WINDS
WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSING SHOWERS.

EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS...EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF PASSING
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ONE OR TWO SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY.

AT 5 AM AST...THE DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED
APPROX 280 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM WINDS WERE
NEAR OF 50 MPH. PRESENTLY ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PASS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE WERE STILL SOME IRREGULARITIES OF THE PRESENT MOTION
AND THE STORM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS
STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
REGARDLESS OF ITS TRACK. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT COULD
EASILY CHANGE TRACK.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.
ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS ARE 17 KNOTS OR LESS. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN DETERIORATING LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND ANEGADA PASSAGE WATERS.

$$

[caribsue]

I can confirm that Barbados has had high winds all night and this morning out of the South. No rain right now although from my vantage point I can see the next squall coming. Also interstingly enough, from where I sit, Lots of Egrets (white cattle birds) are in their night time resting place at Graeme Hall Nature Reserve, normally they are long gone by this time and would start retuning aroun 5:30 / 6:00 tonight....hmmmmmz.

Stay safe neighbours... in Barbados and in the other islands.

[Gustywind]

Just hearing the radio and the weather forecast... given the local forecaster it seems that Guadeloupe could be on a direct threat right now, and an yellow alert should be imminent and even an orange code during the day... I will confirm this but busy 24H adhead...Let's wait and see

[Gustywind]

I can confirm that Barbados has had high winds all night and this morning out of the South. No rain right now although from my vantage point I can see the next squall coming. Also interstingly enough, from where I sit, Lots of Egrets (white cattle birds) are in their night time resting place at Graeme Hall Nature Reserve, normally they are long gone by this time and would start retuning aroun 5:30 / 6:00 tonight....hmmmmmz.

Stay safe neighbours... in Barbados and in the other islands.

Excellent obsv tkanks for all, be safe too . Strictly nothing here, calm , very cloudy, light showers yesterday night...nothing to kill a cat or a dog...

[msbee]

Good morning.
Oh, is it? a good morning I mean
I go to sleep late last night and wake up seeing that Erika shifted southwest?
and now is predicted to "PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO."

What?
but she weakened? but she will strengthen again?
no one knows?
I also got this note from a weather correspondent in Anguilla.

Unfortunately Erika decided to stall overnight and move a little more
south than anticipated. As a result it is now envisaged that she will pass
a lot closer to Anguilla than anticipated last night. It is enitrely
possible that the center of the system will pass directly over
Anguilla.
The predicted position in 36 hours is now 18.4N 62.9W
with 65mph sustained winds. It is possible that Erika may make Cat 1 but
there is shear present that makes this far from certain.

why is there so much uncertainty with this?
and how should we prepare?
is Erika going to be strong enough that we board up?
so many question, too few answers!
and we are only half way through this hurricane season and already I am exhausted.



Barbara

[Gustywind]

Good morning.
Oh, is it? a good morning I mean
I go to sleep late last night and wake up seeing that Erika shifted southwest?
and now is predicted to "PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO."

What?
but she weakened? but she will strengthen again?
no one knows?
I also got this note from a weather correspondent in Anguilla.

Unfortunately Erika decided to stall overnight and move a little more
south than anticipated. As a result it is now envisaged that she will pass
a lot closer to Anguilla than anticipated last night. It is enitrely
possible that the center of the system will pass directly over
Anguilla.
The predicted position in 36 hours is now 18.4N 62.9W
with 65mph sustained winds. It is possible that Erika may make Cat 1 but
there is shear present that makes this far from certain.

why is there so much uncertainty with this?
and how should we prepare?
is Erika going to be strong enough that we board up?
so many question, too few answers!
and we are only half way through this hurricane season and already I am exhausted.



Barbara

Damn we should be on our guard Barbara...looks like Guadeloupe is under the gun too with this relocation farther sw...