ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

Any link please my friend?

go to this link http://wxgr.nl/?weer_recon.htm

and download to Google Earth "kmz file"

The storm symbol is from Global Tropical Storms and you need to download that from Guiweather http://www.guiweather.com/kml.html

[Sabanic]

For now, the "All Clear For Florida" has been discontinued.

Kind of makes you wonder about the GOM down the road too . . .

[shah8]

This is reminding me too much of Fay, Dolly, and Hanna.

[storms NC]

seems she's got our NWS office's attention to a point.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
742 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2009


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHICH GENERALLY MEANS A MOIST AND UNSETTLED
FLOW. HOWEVER...A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG WEDGING IS BEING
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL
CONFLUENCE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL...HAVE TRENDED
DOWN ON THE POPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY VIA THE DRY SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN ONCE AGAIN...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS LOOK GOOD WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY TRENDING DOWN ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS
AT THIS POINT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...WITH HER SLOW MOVEMENT...WILL
NOT BE AN IMMEDIATE CONCERN THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

This a good thing, that it is of no concern through monday. But a little misleading, it means that it won't affect us through Monday.


That statement will mean that we won't have to worry about any hype keeping tourists away this weekend, also a good thing.If the CMC comes true she will track down the center of the Bahamas and off Miami failrly strong, most others are slightly north. GFDL is still on drugs and too strong I think.

That why they did put that in there. For the last few week ends has hurt them bad and with this week end being a long weekend they didn't want to run the people away.This is the last big week end for the beach's. There would be no way that she would be here before then.
But I do feel that this time some where is going to get a hit along the SE coast. 3rd time is the charm. JMO not worth much

[jabber]

It appears that the main source of convection is fading and a new area is forming just a bit south of the forcast plot. Maybe closer to the LLC?

[Stormcenter]

But conditions will only get worse and not better for Erika as she moves westward. IMO

SHIPS makes it a hurricane. GFDL and HWRF make it a major hurricane. Conditions look like they will be favorable in THOSE models. The storm is holding on quite well despite the overwhelming amount of apparent dry air all around it. Look at the WV pic: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

Nothing but dry air surrounding this thing. It is my guess that the intensity models are not aware of this and assume everything else to be quite ripe so up they go with intensity. Can someone post the SHIPS shear output again? Seems to me that if it were not going to survive it would have died by now. It's not moving west at 28 mph like Ana. It's not weak and half-baked like Danny, it's not Ingrid in 2007 with 750 mph winds over the top of it (joke of course). It has made it this far and is doing quite well against a pattern that is not favorable for strengthening. Get it to 70W or beyond and let's see what happens. The trend has been for this to get better organized and strengthen every day since we first started tracking it. Why would it stop now? Folks in the Bahamas had better hope those intensity models are clueless otherwise a lot of people are in for a rude awakening down the road.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Stormcenter]

There will be a trough (another one) in the GOM sometime next week that will bring some more nice healthy shear into the area. The funny thing is this thing may not even make that far west to begin with anyway.

For now, the "All Clear For Florida" has been discontinued.

Kind of makes you wonder about the GOM down the road too . . .

[BigB0882]

Well these shifts mean I will definitely be keeping an eye on this one.

[Stormcenter]

I think you'll be just fine in Baton Rouge.

Well these shifts mean I will definitely be keeping an eye on this one.

[Evil Jeremy]

But conditions will only get worse and not better for Erika as she moves westward. IMO

Yea well, 2 nights ago we thought that the shear would obliterate 94L. Conditions keep on changing, so nothing is definite.

[tailgater]

The Vortex /eddy /center that we were tracking earlier near Gautalope sp? is now fading and the broader center to the east is gaining convection.
radar
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
512 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2009



SUN-WED...BROAD TROUGH REDEVELOPING OVER THE CTRL-ERN CONUS WILL
FLATTEN OUT THE WRN PORTION OF THE MID/UPR RIDGE OVER FL. AT THE
SFC...LGT ERLY FLOW SEEMS LKLY TO PREVAIL THRU THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH POPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO CLIMO. MAIN CAVEAT W/R/T
THE XTD RANGE FCST WILL BE EVOLUTION OF T.S. "ERIKA" CURRENTLY NEAR
THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. CURRENT NHC FCST PLACES SYSTEM AT 24.5N
71.0W AS A 45KT T.S. SUN EVENING...AND IN A FAIRLY HOSTILE U/L
ENVIRONMENT. THIS MIGHT ARGUE FOR A LESS COHERENT T.C. THAN WHAT THE
USUALLY MORE RELIABLE ECM SUGGESTS...AND PERHAPS A CLOSER APPROACH
TO THE BAHAMA CHAIN. IN FACT...WHILE THE 00Z ECM STILL GOES WITH A
RECURVE SCENARIO...IT DOES SO ABOUT 3 DEGREES FARTHER WEST (75W AS
OPPOSED TO 72W). WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH THRU NEXT WEEK. AS
ALWAYS...PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL NHC FORECASTS/DISCUSSIONS ON T.S.
ERIKA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

[MGC]

Another train wreck of a system....MGC

[Sanibel]

If the GFDL is towards Florida watch out. But it could still recurve.

[mattpetre]

There will be a trough (another one) in the GOM sometime next week that will bring some more nice healthy shear into the area. The funny thing is this thing may not even make that far west to begin with anyway.

Yes, I would guess that statistically speaking there is almost as much of a chance of that trough leaving remnants that become tropical in the GOM as there is of Erika becoming a factor there. Thing is for now we only have Erika and Jimena to watch so we have to wonder what Erika will do. Admittedly she is one of those storms that has surprised on a number of occasions thus far and now we have to expect a few more up her sleeve.

[lrak]

With my amateur satellite skills what is pushing this storm further south than planned? The ULL low to her NE?

[artist]

what does the latest euro show?

[Sanibel]

Beware! Beware! Another naked spiral Danny approaches!

[Aric Dunn]

Good morning, evening, or Night .. all



well hope we have all thrown the models out at this point .. lol