ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Derek Ortt]

seems to have lost the good inflow it did yesterday

a low level easterly jet associated with a SAL surge does that every time. I have no clue what this will do now

[Frank2]

You must be speaking of someone else - this has never looked that impressive, other than a few days ago when the MLC was showing decent banding, but other than that, it's similar to Danny when it comes to disorganization, so don't be surprised if they do downgrade it, since it's very poorly organized (even for a TD) at this time...

Frank

['CaneFreak]

seems to have lost the good inflow it did yesterday

a low level easterly jet associated with a SAL surge does that every time. I have no clue what this will do now

well...you have support for the dry air this time...see the sounding posted above

[HURAKAN]

['CaneFreak]

You must be speaking of someone else - this has never looked that impressive, other than a few days ago when the MLC was showing decent banding, but other than that, it's similar to Danny when it comes to disorganization, so don't be surprised if they do downgrade it, since it's very poorly organized (even for a TD) at this time...

Frank

This is a joke right? You aren't serious...you can't be...

[Evil Jeremy]

This looked great overnight, but is poor now. Still, I think it will rebound as the sun goes down like it has been doing the past few nights.

[HURAKAN]

786
NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 02 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76
A. 03/1800Z, 04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0506A ERIKA
C. 03/1700Z
D. 17.7N 63.57W
E. 03/1715Z TO 03/2345Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77
A. 04/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0606A ERIKA
C. 04/0500Z
D. 18.3N 64.8W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/1145Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 02/1800Z ON HURRICANE
JIMENA CANCELED BY NHC AT 02/1130Z.
JWP

[Aric Dunn]

The center found by RECON is under the convection or very close to it, not the one over the Lesser Antilles. Strong convection is developing over the estimated position of the center, therefore, the NHC won't downgrade the system to TD without RECON information.

yeah even though there is clearly a vortex rotating sw the ball of convection that is firing is the main center or at least more dominate.

the models are just not going to have a easy time at all for the 12z run this is farther south than any model except the bam models from 3 days ago when they had it entering the NE carrib.

expect yet another shift west and south .. possibly across DR which does not bode well for strengthening...

not withstanding the potential for this entering the gulf if it hold together is increasing quickly and of course the bahamas and florida before that.

[Frank2]

...I know for a fact that the NHC does not enjoy forecasting these weak systems, since their forecasts often border on subjective opinion, rather than objective observation...

Frank

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

All of the above is depending on whether there's anything left of this system - it's not even a decent-looking TD at this point:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

uh Frank, you do know this has a name, right? certainly beyond a TD.

[Portastorm]

This is an excerpt from the NWS discussion this morning out of N.O.

THE OTHER FEATURE IS TS ERIKA. DEFINITELY NOT AN IMMEDIATE THREAT
IF AT ALL. A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY THE START OF THE WEEK. IF ERIKA WERE TO GET CLOSE TO THE
GULF...THE UPPER TROUGH WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON IT. OFCOURSE TIMING
IS ALWAYS THE ISSUE.

There will be a trough (another one) in the GOM sometime next week that will bring some more nice healthy shear into the area. The funny thing is this thing may not even make that far west to begin with anyway.

There will? Where? I just looked at the 500mb and 850 mb patterns for next week from the last few GFS runs and there is no trough in the Gulf. The 0z run deepens a trough about Sept. 12th other than that ... the pattern is more ridging than anything else.

Yes, I can read and I did see that, too. And ... I say again, show me the trough. I don't see it on the modeling. Maybe one of the pro mets can shed some light.

I just don't think you can post with these certain statements like "oh don't worry ... this thing will never do blah-blah-blah." It is obvious to me at least that Erika could threaten the Gulf as much as she could Bermuda. Way too many uncertainties right now. And as for shear projections ... ha, you should have seen how well those work. Yesterday there was forecasted to be significant shear over Erika and she blew up big time, confounding the pros. Those shear maps are far from gospel.

[tolakram]

Taking a far off view:

edit: changed to a link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

It's interesting that the system seems to me continually moving due west except for a stair step a day or so ago.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think anyone is worried about the strength of this storm, just wondering if they will get some strong tropical storm winds and heavy rain ....It might be a good rainmaker for some. but the NHC doesn't seem to think it will amount to much as far as strength is concerned.

[otowntiger]

seems to have lost the good inflow it did yesterday

a low level easterly jet associated with a SAL surge does that every time. I have no clue what this will do now

But seriously, you can't honestly say you're surprised at this system's waning and diminishing once again can you?

[Frank2]

It seems the trolls are alive on this board once again (they must have been on vacation the past couple of weeks)...

Sorry if it disappoints them, but the NHC isn't in the business of writing disaster novels - if the system is poorly organized they will consider downgrading it, if not for this cycle certainly the next, depending on what recon finds...

Frank

[Gustywind]

This looked great overnight, but is poor now. Still, I think it will rebound as the sun goes down like it has been doing the past few nights.

Maybe you know personnaly known this Fat Lady you're may be right seems that the afternoon and the night she has increasing burst pop..Whereas agree on one point, this feature is pretty versatile and unpredictable reminds me IRIS crossing near Guadeloupe in August 1995 with multiples vortex finding an outcome...once again it's and advice to be extremely vigilant for us in the islands due to its proximity near the Leewards

[mattpetre]

Dry air is definitely slowing any possible strengthening, but a downgrade seems unlikely and given the other current environmental conditions I would have to agree with EJ that by tonight she will ramp up a little again and then probably fall off again tomorrow and as she moves further west... but it looks to me that the shear is less to the west than it was before... ok, I'm going to have to say when Derek and wxman57 are unsure of what she'll do next then it's ludicrous for me to think I know.

[Brent]

It seems the trolls are alive on this board once again (they must have been on vacation the past couple of weeks)...

Need a mirror?

[lrak]

vbhoutex, thank you. It seems no one knows wth Thats a new one on this forum

[lrak]

It seems the trolls are alive on this board once again (they must have been on vacation the past couple of weeks)...

Need a mirror?