ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[canes04]

Am I missing something, the area(llc) near 16n 60w looks like is bcecoming better organized over the last few hours.
Give her time to stack and lookout.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Like all poorly organized TD's or even Tropical Storms, we will see them burst and wane with the diurnal pulses and mins and maxes of the day. We'll see folks coming and going on the board to exclaim how it is booming or busting depending on their immediate observation at the moment.

This storm, unless it it is proven that it has lost a center of circulation completely and/or its winds decrease below 34, will not be downgraded to a TD or open wave.

Unless the shear rips it apart today and/or tonite, we can expect it to pulse up again. Each pulse and wane have left it just a little stronger than the previous cycle. Slow intensification was predicted a few days ago, as it had to fight less than optimal conditions, and that is proving to be true.

Many factors are in play making this frustrating for some, and for some others, challenging and fun, to try and track and predict. Let's enjoy the forum without calling eachother trolls just because we might have differing opinions. After our slow start, lets be glad we have anything to finally track!

[otowntiger]

For now, the "All Clear For Florida" has been discontinued.

While that may be true it appears that the storm will not develop into anything to get too worked up over. Certainly right now she's not feeling too good and no one really knows what she could do intensity wise.

Exactly no one knows what she will really do.. so how can you say she wont be anything to get worked up about?

Give me a break! I said it appears that the storm will not be anything to get worked up about. The NHC has reasons for not predicting a major, but of course anything can happen. If you want to go ahead and work yourself into a frenzy over a very weak T.S, over 1000 miles away, feel free.

[funster]

Erika spit out a false center? That explains why Erika was so big yesterday. She was pregnant.

[Aric Dunn]

I guess from what Jeff Masters is saying is that in order to get a recurve the storm will need to intensify, but if it doesn't intensify and just remains a weak storm, then the east coast may be a threat

well not to be taken literally .. but stronger storms tend to bend right.. but is not always the case. in our case we would in the short term if it got a lot stronger would likely move more like 300 then depending on timing with the trough and building ridge over the eastern US would either turn back west or more north..

at this time the models that have a strong hurricane initially move 300 to 310 for a couple days then turn back west to wnw as the trough washes out and lifts north while the ridge builds in turning west.( gfdl and hwrf ).

so again timing is most important and intensity only plays a short term role as later in the forecast period may play less of a role depending on how strong the ridge builds in cause if it strong and far enough south then it really wont matter how strong the system is it would turn back west to north west.

[Aquawind]

Wow Downgrading to a TD later in the period.. Bring on the Shear!! Shear is my friend!!

[caneseddy]

Interesting that the NHC forecasts this to weaken to a depression and maybe even dissipate

I guess they are not trusting the models when it comes to the shear forecast

[Sanibel]

The only place 10% humidity air could have come from is the Sahara. All the way across and into Erika's intake.


SAL strikes again.


With 25 knot shear expected downrange this one is another Danny fizzler.

[HURAKAN]

11 AM Discussion:

GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

[Aric Dunn]

We can't even get this thing past the islands and you have it the GOM already.
If it made it in there (GOM) it would be short lived if it survived.

The center found by RECON is under the convection or very close to it, not the one over the Lesser Antilles. Strong convection is developing over the estimated position of the center, therefore, the NHC won't downgrade the system to TD without RECON information.

yeah even though there is clearly a vortex rotating sw the ball of convection that is firing is the main center or at least more dominate.

the models are just not going to have a easy time at all for the 12z run this is farther south than any model except the bam models from 3 days ago when they had it entering the NE carrib.

expect yet another shift west and south .. possibly across DR which does not bode well for strengthening...

not withstanding the potential for this entering the gulf if it hold together is increasing quickly and of course the bahamas and florida before that.

please dont take things to literally as the situation is complex I as well as most are only running scenarios that could play out based on current set up.. its pretty clear i said the chances are only increasing the more it stays put not its going to the gulf and we are all going to die ..

[Aric Dunn]

Erika spit out a false center? That explains why Erika was so big yesterday. She was pregnant.

lol . .i guess thats a analogy .. lol

[tolakram]

They forecast Danny to become a strong TS / minimal hurricane and it dissipated. They forecast Erika to dissipate.

They are doing the best they can, the best anyone can, but given the almost perfect failure of intensity forecasts of late I can't help but be a little concerned about Erika. I'm hoping the availability of the soundings near the storm make this forecast a done deal.

[Aquawind]

The only place 10% humidity air could have come from is the Sahara. All the way across and into Erika's intake.


SAL strikes again.


With 25 knot shear expected downrange this one is another Danny fizzler.

At least for this forecast period..Shear won't last forever or will it..lol
KC and the Sunshine Band.."That's the way I like it"

[Stormcenter]

Quote from the NHC 11:00am discussion.
Now that must be sone serious shear...ouch.

GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.

[HardCard]

Give me a break! I said it appears that the storm will not be anything to get worked up about. The NHC has reasons for not predicting a major, but of course anything can happen. If you want to go ahead and work yourself into a frenzy over a very weak T.S, over 1000 miles away, feel free.

TD's and TS's kill people too.. Potential loss of life generally grabs my eye in these situations.. Just because you don't feel the same, doesn't mean others don't... IMO any tropical system is a deadly one.. I've been through countless hurricanes, including Katrina and Andrew.. I've been threw many TS's and TD's.. and anyone else that has done so will tell you that sometimes there is little difference between them beyond storm surge....

This is where I draw a 'line' on forum posts, sorry.. Don't tell other people how to 'feel'.. That can get people killed.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting that the NHC forecasts this to weaken to a depression and maybe even dissipate

I guess they are not trusting the models when it comes to the shear forecast

well now its not just shear.. but land interaction..its getting very close to DR and even a close pass can really disrupt a full fledged hurricane let alone a TS.. on the flip side though some friction can sometimes help tighten up a weak system

[Sanibel]

Unless the shear rips it apart today and/or tonite, we can expect it to pulse up again. Each pulse and wane have left it just a little stronger than the previous cycle. Slow intensification was predicted a few days ago, as it had to fight less than optimal conditions, and that is proving to be true.

Normally I would agree but, like Danny, 2009 has a weird synoptic sick air situation where dry air and layered shear is being supplied into the core of the developing storm keeping it from following the normal 'pulse' intensification build-up. The system finds a favorable pocket and bursts healthy convection only to be cut down again by the unfavorable air pattern.

[Frank2]

Well, they didn't downgrade it ATTM, but, per the TCD:

GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.

P.S. Oops, sorry Stormcenter, didn't see your similar post (glad we're on the same page, though)...

Frank

['CaneFreak]

Well, they didn't downgrade it ATTM, but, per the TCD:

GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.

Yeah...but they didn't say it would today

[Air Force Met]

From the discussion:

"THERE ARE MULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.......SHEAR IS PRIMARILY COMING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 300 MB-250 MB...AND THIS IS APPARENTLY UNDERCUTTING "

There's my undercutting shear and multiple centers...