Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 021150
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
800 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...DISORGANIZED ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...A LITTLE
WEAKER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
RELOCATED TO NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY ALTHOUGH SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.5N 59.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Given NRL...
20090902.1215.06LERIKA.50kts-1007mb-169N-587W.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

[FireBird]

Good night all...and be vigilant anything can happen with this Fat Lady (erractic movements could happen?!we never knows) with Erika, if this trend continues that reminds me Lenny in 1999, humm not to pleasant. Msbee and all the others be on your guard!
Gustywind

Hi Gusty, based on your comments of last night, Erika is certainly moving like a mystery lady! Just look at Barbados this morning!
I wonder whether Erika will prove to be Lenny's younger sister?!
While I'm quite far south, I'm not one to hold to rigid theories when it comes to storms. Mother Nature always does her own thing, so I'm staying in alert mode. As for my dear friends further north, please stay safe. I am very concerned about flooding for you guys since Erika is moving so slowly. Follow your basic human instinct. Take care.

[Gustywind]

From stormcarib.com
Barbados Update.
From: <markbgi at caribsurf.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2009 08:08:44 -0500

After many hot days and nights the rains have arrived. Yesterday afternoon the skies opened and from Warrens all the way into town was underwater.

Today Wednesday the start of the new school term does not look too good. Thunder can be heard rumbling all around and the clouds have been gathering (see photos attached). Lookout for lots of rain today.

Erika seemed to have wobbled a little further south than predicted and there are four tropical waves lined up between us and the african coast. Its gonna be an intresting next 7 days.

[HURAKAN]

Given NRL...
20090902.1215.06LERIKA.50kts-1007mb-169N-587W.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

That's wrong.

AL, 06, 2009090212, , BEST, 0, 163N, 600W, 40, 1008, TS

[Gustywind]

Good night all...and be vigilant anything can happen with this Fat Lady (erractic movements could happen?!we never knows) with Erika, if this trend continues that reminds me Lenny in 1999, humm not to pleasant. Msbee and all the others be on your guard!
Gustywind

Hi Gusty, based on your comments of last night, Erika is certainly moving like a mystery lady! Just look at Barbados this morning!
I wonder whether Erika will prove to be Lenny's younger sister?!
While I'm quite far south, I'm not one to hold to rigid theories when it comes to storms. Mother Nature always does her own thing, so I'm staying in alert mode. As for my dear friends further north, please stay safe. I am very concerned about flooding for you guys since Erika is moving so slowly. Follow your basic human instinct. Take care.

Hi my friend, tkanks. Absolutely Erika is moving erraticly, as you say a sister of Lenny? you're right! I noticied many post in Barbados speaking about the numerous strong showers, and thus the flooding risk...It's amazing given your location at 13N 59W??? Caribsue told me the same things like you...
Whereas ant islands could experience juicy feeder bands squall line, nobody can really pinpoint the exact location of this mysterious Lady, one thing for sure she does not want to move she seems to appareciate the Leewards and the adjacents islands! Guadeloupe seems on a direct threat and orange code expected at 11AM, things are heating up if this menacing trend is confirmed! Be safe all my friends.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Given NRL...
20090902.1215.06LERIKA.50kts-1007mb-169N-587W.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

That's wrong.

AL, 06, 2009090212, , BEST, 0, 163N, 600W, 40, 1008, TS

Tkanks my friend i appreciate Hurakan maybe they had not updated it when i posted it. Given these unofficialy position... it's not good news for us in Guadeloupe. TS effects should shake our island if this trajectory is confirmed, let's see what happens during the next couple of hours.

[msbee]

storm clouds are gathering from the east already

[abajan]

From stormcarib.com
Barbados Update.
From: <markbgi at caribsurf.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2009 08:08:44 -0500

After many hot days and nights the rains have arrived. Yesterday afternoon the skies opened and from Warrens all the way into town was underwater.

Today Wednesday the start of the new school term does not look too good. Thunder can be heard rumbling all around and the clouds have been gathering (see photos attached). Lookout for lots of rain today.

Erika seemed to have wobbled a little further south than predicted and there are four tropical waves lined up between us and the african coast. Its gonna be an intresting next 7 days.

Things have eased up quite a bit since earlier this morning when I had to shut down my computer as a precautionary measure due to frequent (sometimes LOUD) peals of thunder. I would never have thought that a system so far to our north could have affected us this way. Normally, when storms pass that far north, the most we can expect is localized afternoon thunderstorms. Erika is a different creature altogether. Besides the sharp lightning and thunder, we got some heavy rain accompanied by pretty strong south-southwesterly wind gusts and as I drove along the streets, I noticed a few tree limbs down.

You guys further north had better buckle up for a rough ride! (Don't let Erika's weak maximum sustained winds lull fool you. She's definitely packing a punch.)

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 59.5W OR ABOUT 140
NM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 02/1200 UTC MOVING W AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. ERIKA APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED BUT
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 15.5N57W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 54W-60W.

$$
WALLACE

[Gustywind]

[artist]

guys there has been a thread set up in the Active Storms forum for you to post your conditions. Each of you stay safe and check in with us as you can. We are keeping you in our thoughts and prayers viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106457

[msbee]

Ok, thanks

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib...again Barbados is experiencing some weather of Erika

Barbados - FLOOD WATCH
From: <markbgi at caribsurf.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2009 09:54:43 -0500


A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.

A RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS PRODUCING SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS SCATTERED THUNDER STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS BARBADOS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. AS A RESULT A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 NOON TODAY AND MAYBE EXTENDED IF NECESSARY. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT AND TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.

[HurricaneQueen]

Before I head over to the other thread, I had to say something in the "tent". I want to wish you all well on the islands. Under normal circumstances we would be on St. Maarten right now but where unable to make our annual jaunt this year.

Please know that you are all in my thoughts and prayers and that I think of all of you everytime the Carib is impacted in anyway. (Heck, our special assessments for storm damage every year is about to break us! ). Only kidding. My passion for the Caribbean goes much deeper than that.

Be safe!

Lynn

[Gustywind]

From Antigua stormcarib.com
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml

Erika didn't take her meds
From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2009 07:10:36 -0700 (PDT)

This lady is needs to see a therapist. She's totally unstable and i would even say schizophrenic. One minute she shows one personality and you think you have her figured out and then the next minute she looks like someone totally different. Each time i look at the sat motion maps she changes size, direction and shape. The radar shows some good convection stretching all the way down to Barbados and north and east from there up to us. So far we have just seen little squalls the strongest being in the early morning hours last night. I have secured the boats and now am gonna make my way to the north coast to collect my windsurfing gear. Jabbawock beach may be the spot for a little sport later. It's still a bit too light at this hour with winds probably about 15-20 on average. I think we have to keep thinking that there is a chance of 60 mph winds in thunderstorms and squalls later today and tonight, but hopefully it won't be that bad. Erika looks sometimes like it's gonna fizzle out, but that's just one of her personalities. Dont be fooled by this shifter!

[FireBird]

Based on the latest imagery, it looks like Lady Erika is morphing again. The mystery continues, and the suspense is leaving that queasy feeling in the stomach......

[Gustywind]

Based on the latest imagery, it looks like Lady Erika is morphing again. The mystery continues, and the suspense is leaving that queasy feeling in the stomach......

Yeah you're right ...she may have many options in its pockets for sure! Mystery for sure, we will see some up and down as its debuts in my pretty subjective opinion. But seems that the afternoon and the night are the propices periodes to observe its well shaped body! Maybe she has the permission of its parents to showed us its skills (strong burst, amazing size, versatile tracks) somewhat the perfect package to pose a lack of our guard my carib friends !!!
Even if she could become a poor TD open wave (optimistic scenario, but we can deal too with a very strong TS or even a Cat 1 cane?!who knows?) we should definitely continue to monitor closely this FAT LADY!!! Don't count for this feature to gave up so quickly anything can happen as we're in September and it's the peak of the season

[Gustywind]

Based on the latest imagery, it looks like Lady Erika is morphing again. The mystery continues, and the suspense is leaving that queasy feeling in the stomach......

Yeah you're right ...she may have many options in its pockets for sure! Mystery for sure, we will see some up and down as its debuts in my pretty subjective opinion. But seems that the afternoon and the night are the propices periodes to observe its well shaped body! Maybe she has the permission of its parents to showed us its skills (strong burst, amazing size, versatile tracks) somewhat the perfect package to pose a lack of our guard my carib friends !!!
Even if she could become a poor TD open wave (optimistic scenario, but we can deal too with a very strong TS or even a Cat 1 cane?!who knows?) we should definitely continue to monitor closely this FAT LADY!!! Don't count for this feature to gave up so quickly anything can happen as we're in September and it's the peak of the season

Look carefully the sat pic, she looks like Pac...Woman a inverted V turned to the left. You could see an open mouth ready to start to bet the islands...Story to relax a bit, sorry but it's just a picture well spoken!