Montserrat is walking up... from Stormcarib.com
- TS Erika 'The Wild Child'
From: Tina Bretton <tbretton59 at msn.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2009 08:30:14 -0500
Good Morning
TS Erika has had a mind of her own since the beginning. She has not followed the rules. Just when forecasters think they have a handle on her she does something unexpected.
As of 5am this morning, Montserrat has been included in the Tropical Storm warnings. James White Director of the DMCA, was just on the radio explaining the situation. He has asked that everyone prepare and stay vigilant, stay tuned to the radio for updates and expect the weather to worsen later today. Montserrat can expect rains in the range of 2 to 6 inches. The main thing Montserrat, as well as other islands, needs to worry about is flash flooding.
We also need to watch the African coast, the 'wave train' has started. So everyone needs to stay aware.
Good news..Volcano is still quiet!
Stay Safe
Tina
Isles Bay
Montserrat
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021447
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009
...ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.5N 60.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
WTNT31 KNHC 021447
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009
...ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.5N 60.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
WTNT41 KNHC 021447
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA SHOW THAT ERIKA IS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM. THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE
LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE SFMR EARLIER REPORTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35
KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...SO THAT VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...WITH CIMSS
DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15-20 KT OF SHEAR. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE SHEAR DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTH OR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REPORTED AT 200 MB OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE AND ST. MAARTEN
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS PRIMARILY COMING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 300 MB-250 MB...AND THIS IS APPARENTLY UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW LAYERS AT 200 MB AND ABOVE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH RELAXATION OF THIS SHEAR...AND ACTUALLY SHOW IT
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE ALL THIS
SHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THIS REINTENSIFICATION
DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN
THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.
A 24-HOUR MOTION IS ABOUT 275/9. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS
PREDICTED TO RESUME AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A FEW DAYS...AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. [b]THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF ERIKA REMAINING WEAK. IT
SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT...OVERALL...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
TRACK FORECAST.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 16.5N 60.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 16.9N 61.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 17.4N 62.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 18.0N 64.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.6N 65.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 20.0N 68.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 23.5N 73.5W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
[/b]
WTNT41 KNHC 021447
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA SHOW THAT ERIKA IS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM. THERE ARE
MULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE
LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE SFMR EARLIER REPORTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35
KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...SO THAT VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...WITH CIMSS
DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15-20 KT OF SHEAR. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE SHEAR DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTH OR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REPORTED AT 200 MB OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE AND ST. MAARTEN
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS PRIMARILY COMING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 300 MB-250 MB...AND THIS IS APPARENTLY UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW LAYERS AT 200 MB AND ABOVE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH RELAXATION OF THIS SHEAR...AND ACTUALLY SHOW IT
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE ALL THIS
SHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THIS REINTENSIFICATION
DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN
THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.
A 24-HOUR MOTION IS ABOUT 275/9. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS
PREDICTED TO RESUME AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A FEW DAYS...AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. [b]THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF ERIKA REMAINING WEAK. IT
SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT...OVERALL...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
TRACK FORECAST.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 16.5N 60.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 16.9N 61.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 17.4N 62.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 18.0N 64.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.6N 65.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 20.0N 68.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 23.5N 73.5W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
[/b]
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
so is this thing gonna fall apart or what?
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-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Latest from NRL:
20090902.1715.ERIKA.40kts-1008mb-163N-600W
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis
20090902.1715.ERIKA.40kts-1008mb-163N-600W
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
msbee wrote:so is this thing gonna fall apart or what?
I will appreciate it falls appart...but for sure we should continue to monitor this carefully Msbee. Reminds me in all aspects IRIS in 1995 an unpredictable system with multiple vortex and just bang on the islands at anytime. And moreover this Fat Lady is moving slowly, not good, imagine the rain falling heavily during hours???...
The huge cloud mass has not already "pet" Guadeloupe and adjacent Leewards Islands 
She may have many options in its pockets for sure! Mystery for sure, we will see some up and down as its debuts in my pretty subjective opinion. But seems that the afternoon and the night are the propices periodes to observe its well shaped body! Maybe she has the permission of its parents to showed us its skills (strong burst, amazing size, versatile tracks) somewhat the perfect package to pose a lack of our guard my carib friends !!!
Even if she could become a poor TD open wave (optimistic scenario, but we can deal too with a very strong TS or even a Cat 1 cane?!who knows?) we should definitely continue to monitor closely this FAT LADY!!! Don't count for this feature to gave up so quickly anything can happen as we're in September and it's the peak of the season
[tracks) somewhat the perfect package to pose a lack of our guard my carib friends
!!!
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
She's here...
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021754
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
200 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009
...ERIKA NEAR GUADELOUPE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST.
MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC....THE CENTER OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED
TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE STORM MAY BE
WEAKENING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE THE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.2N 61.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021754
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
200 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009
...ERIKA NEAR GUADELOUPE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST.
MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC....THE CENTER OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED
TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE STORM MAY BE
WEAKENING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE THE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.2N 61.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145366
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
This is a update from our pro met Derek Ortt about effects from Erika in the Caribbean.
http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062009.html
http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062009.html
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Please don't let Erika's diminishing winds give you a misplaced sense of security because there's still the very real threat of flooding rains to contend with. (It was only a tropical depression that dumped copious amounts of rain on Barbados on the morning of October 1, 1970. Many parts of the island got over 20 inches of rain in just a few hours time.) Also, bear in mind that convection tends to bloom in the nighttime in the tropics. Unfortunately, that's just the time that Erika's main blob of convection will be over most of the islands in the warning area.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145366
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
More watches and warnings issued
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA.
AT 5 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST.
MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA.
AT 5 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST.
MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
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expat2carib
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- Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:44 pm
- Location: Sint Maarten
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Derek Ortt wrote:major flooding possible for the islands. May even spread into the Windward Islands
From the Erika thread.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106388&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2260
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expat2carib
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Sint Maarten
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145366
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
800 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009
...ERIKA BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER
TONIGHT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...GUADELOUPE...
ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0
WEST...OR JUST WEST OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
ERIKA HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/HR LATER TONIGHT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ERIKA
COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.9N 62.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
800 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009
...ERIKA BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER
TONIGHT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...GUADELOUPE...
ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0
WEST...OR JUST WEST OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
ERIKA HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT SHOULD RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/HR LATER TONIGHT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ERIKA
COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.9N 62.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
expat2carib wrote:Showers started coming. On and off and heavy. Some thunder rumbles far away.
How is it on Guadeloupe Gusty?
Ohh i'm just coming after troubles with my Internet
arff...2 hours without connexion! 
In my location light showers related to a line of showers with no winds...Whereas i have some lightnings but does not seems too frequent. Pressure is at 1009 hpa since this afternoon where i am (Baie Mahault) and has not changed (1009).
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Good to see you again... glad to hear that you guys are all ok so far.
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
how's everything in Guadeloupe, Gusty?
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145366
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
838 PM AST WED SEP 2 2009
...ERIKA BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER
TONIGHT...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST...OR JUST WEST OF
GUADELOUPE. THIS IS ABOUT 320 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PR...OR ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX VI.
THE STORM WAS MOVING WEST AT 1 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
40 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. TO
DO SO COULD RESULT IN BAD DECISIONS AND PLACE YOU OR THOSE YOU
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR AT GREATER RISK. ERIKA IS STRUGGLING FOR LIFE
AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONCE IT REACHES PUERTO RICO...BUT WARM
CARIBBEAN WATERS CAN CAUSE UNEXPECTED INTENSIFICATION. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO WINDS OR...MORE LIKELY...FLASH
FLOODING.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION ERIKA`S LATEST TRACK...INCREASING
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. IF YOU ARE IN A
FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD FIND OUT WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD
BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF FLOODING.
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET.
IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AS INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL STORM PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 1230 AM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-030500-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.HU.S.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.TR.A.0002.090903T0038Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
838 PM AST WED SEP 2 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MOVES SLOWLY WEST...
...NEW INFORMATION...
NEW SPEED AND DIRECTION INFORMATION. VTEC CODES WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE CORRECT STATUS OF ERIKA.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION ERIKA`S LATEST TRACK...INCREASING
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
IF YOU ARE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD FIND OUT WHICH
LOCAL SHELTER WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF FLOODING.
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET.
IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AS INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL STORM PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE HEAVY WEATHER STRIKES.
&&
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
LESS THAN 44 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN-MOST WATERS.
...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF NEAR 40 MPH TO AFFECT THE WATERS
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY BUT TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WEST OF THERE.
...MARINE...
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
BEGINNING BY TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
838 PM AST WED SEP 2 2009
...ERIKA BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER
TONIGHT...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST...OR JUST WEST OF
GUADELOUPE. THIS IS ABOUT 320 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PR...OR ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX VI.
THE STORM WAS MOVING WEST AT 1 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
40 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. TO
DO SO COULD RESULT IN BAD DECISIONS AND PLACE YOU OR THOSE YOU
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR AT GREATER RISK. ERIKA IS STRUGGLING FOR LIFE
AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONCE IT REACHES PUERTO RICO...BUT WARM
CARIBBEAN WATERS CAN CAUSE UNEXPECTED INTENSIFICATION. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO WINDS OR...MORE LIKELY...FLASH
FLOODING.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION ERIKA`S LATEST TRACK...INCREASING
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. IF YOU ARE IN A
FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD FIND OUT WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD
BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF FLOODING.
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET.
IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AS INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL STORM PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 1230 AM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-030500-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.HU.S.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.TR.A.0002.090903T0038Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
838 PM AST WED SEP 2 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MOVES SLOWLY WEST...
...NEW INFORMATION...
NEW SPEED AND DIRECTION INFORMATION. VTEC CODES WERE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE CORRECT STATUS OF ERIKA.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION ERIKA`S LATEST TRACK...INCREASING
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
IF YOU ARE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD FIND OUT WHICH
LOCAL SHELTER WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF FLOODING.
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET.
IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AS INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL STORM PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE HEAVY WEATHER STRIKES.
&&
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
LESS THAN 44 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN-MOST WATERS.
...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF NEAR 40 MPH TO AFFECT THE WATERS
AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY BUT TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WEST OF THERE.
...MARINE...
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
BEGINNING BY TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
$$
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expat2carib
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 458
- Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:44 pm
- Location: Sint Maarten
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Torrential rains here on Dominica in the last 3-4 hours. According to wxman57 this will last all night and beyond.
MMMMhhhhhhhh I'm safe and informed here but are more concerned about all others on this island who were not warned.
How are the other Islands doing? Hope everybody is safe!!
MMMMhhhhhhhh
I'm safe and informed here but are more concerned about all others on this island who were not warned.How are the other Islands doing? Hope everybody is safe!!
wxman57 wrote:expat2carib wrote:I'm in the middle of this bursting area at the moment (Dominica)
The last hours we had moderate to heavy showers almost non stop.
Almost no winds but now the rain stopped and now we have moderate gusts. My question is: It's said before that the most serious weather is on the eastern side of the system. Anybody has any idea when the eastern part arrives and will be departed again?. Just wondering
Thanks!
Heavy squalls extend out about 100 miles east of Dominica. Moving west at 8-10 mph, you should expect moderate to heavy rain all night. Winds will be from the SE-S at 25-30 mph. Might see a few brief periods of 30-40 mph sustained wind. Higher gusts in heavier squalls. Bare minimum TS at most. Send some of that rain to Texas.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
msbee wrote:how's everything in Guadeloupe, Gusty?
Nothing special to report, few showers and lightnings, winds are calm it's hot and moist here.
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