ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Dave
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 13442
Age: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Milan Indiana
Contact:

#3221 Postby Dave » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:10 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 021708
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 06 20090902
165830 1726N 06248W 7240 02894 0116 +125 +014 063018 019 033 000 03
165900 1727N 06246W 7442 02665 0116 +136 +023 074018 019 030 000 00
165930 1728N 06245W 7649 02429 0117 +147 +031 071017 017 031 000 00
170000 1728N 06243W 7806 02265 0127 +155 +039 068018 018 032 000 00
170030 1729N 06242W 7948 02105 0128 +160 +046 068019 019 031 000 00
170100 1730N 06240W 8094 01950 0129 +166 +052 070020 021 032 000 00
170130 1730N 06238W 8239 01796 0129 +172 +058 068023 025 031 001 00
170200 1731N 06237W 8376 01652 0131 +176 +065 070025 026 031 000 00
170230 1731N 06236W 8521 01506 0136 +172 +073 080025 026 031 000 00
170300 1732N 06234W 8674 01351 0136 +179 +081 083025 025 030 002 00
170330 1733N 06233W 8816 01210 0137 +187 +087 076025 025 031 001 00
170400 1733N 06231W 8971 01086 0164 +194 +093 075023 024 032 002 00
170430 1734N 06230W 9138 00886 0122 +203 +100 078023 023 034 000 00
170500 1734N 06228W 9296 00736 0113 +215 +106 075025 026 032 002 00
170530 1735N 06227W 9453 00582 0105 +228 +112 078025 025 033 001 00
170600 1736N 06225W 9578 00460 0095 +235 +119 076025 025 033 001 00
170630 1736N 06224W 9593 00444 0093 +232 +126 072024 025 033 000 00
170700 1737N 06223W 9597 00441 0093 +230 +133 074024 025 032 001 00
170730 1737N 06222W 9591 00445 0093 +230 +139 073025 026 031 002 00
170800 1738N 06220W 9594 00443 0093 +230 +143 074025 026 031 001 00
$$
;
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#3222 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:11 pm

well i am doing some small calculations to see what may happen with the vortices.. using the Fujiwhara effect. its is possible that the farther west vort can take over if it has more momentum transfered to its vorticity or circulation as it bottoms out here before the other vort swings NW around the centroid. watch to see if the swirl become more defined and convection starts firing.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#3223 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:13 pm

in the mean time here is the radar out of the area.. i have been saving the images to make longer loops .. : )

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#3224 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:14 pm

Image
0 likes   

JTD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1558
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2003 6:35 pm

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#3225 Postby JTD » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:15 pm

57,

Remember your awesome "it's dead Jim" posts from prior years. I'm just wondering if it's time for one of those or not quite yet? The system does look horrendous right now.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22980
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#3226 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:17 pm

Tropics_Dude83 wrote:57,

Remember your awesome "it's dead Jim" posts from prior years. I'm just wondering if it's time for one of those or not quite yet? The system does look horrendous right now.


No, even if it loses its LLC (all of them), it's still a significant tropical disturbance with the potential to develop IF the environment becomes more favorable.
0 likes   

User avatar
Dave
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 13442
Age: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Milan Indiana
Contact:

#3227 Postby Dave » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:20 pm

URNT15 KNHC 021718
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 07 20090902
170830 1738N 06219W 9589 00449 0093 +230 +147 071023 024 032 000 00
170900 1739N 06218W 9592 00446 0092 +231 +149 070024 025 031 001 00
170930 1739N 06216W 9591 00446 0092 +230 +152 069024 025 032 000 00
171000 1740N 06215W 9596 00440 0091 +230 +154 070025 025 034 000 00
171030 1741N 06214W 9595 00441 0091 +230 +155 069024 025 032 001 00
171100 1741N 06212W 9587 00448 0091 +230 +157 068024 025 031 002 00
171130 1742N 06211W 9593 00442 0091 +231 +158 071024 025 029 003 03
171200 1743N 06210W 9595 00441 0091 +230 +160 073023 024 031 000 00
171230 1744N 06209W 9596 00440 0090 +230 +161 074024 024 032 001 00
171300 1745N 06209W 9595 00440 0090 +230 +162 074024 025 033 001 00
171330 1746N 06208W 9592 00444 0091 +229 +163 075024 026 033 001 00
171400 1747N 06207W 9592 00444 0090 +230 +163 080027 027 032 001 00
171430 1748N 06206W 9600 00436 0090 +231 +164 082027 028 033 000 03
171500 1749N 06205W 9588 00448 0090 +230 +165 079026 027 999 999 03
171530 1748N 06204W 9602 00433 0090 +230 +166 079025 025 031 000 00
171600 1747N 06202W 9589 00446 0090 +230 +168 073025 025 030 000 00
171630 1746N 06201W 9594 00440 0089 +231 +168 072026 027 036 000 00
171700 1745N 06200W 9594 00439 0088 +230 +169 075025 026 035 000 03
171730 1744N 06159W 9596 00438 0087 +230 +170 075023 024 035 000 03
171800 1743N 06158W 9593 00440 0087 +235 +169 076026 027 033 000 03
$$
;
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA - Computer Models

#3228 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:22 pm

HWRF is in love with Erika

Image

Image
0 likes   

OURAGAN
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 451
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#3229 Postby OURAGAN » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:23 pm

You can clearly see the lcc just west of guadeloupe.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#3230 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:24 pm

Image
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#3231 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:25 pm

yeah that is a serious west turn for such a deep system

tell us at the least that the hwrf builds the ridge stronger and that this slower motion has allowed the trough to move out. according to the hwrf..
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22980
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#3232 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:25 pm

OURAGAN wrote:You can clearly see the lcc just west of guadeloupe.


That's the rotation I pointed out earlier today. Just looking at a satellite loop, it does appear as though the convection is building closer to that center. I don't see any other rotations on the satellite loop or in surface obs.
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2124
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re:

#3233 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:26 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:in the mean time here is the radar out of the area.. i have been saving the images to make longer loops .. : )

Image


You may want to check out http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69 it has a lot more to loop there.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#3234 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:26 pm

If that Guadeloupe center is the center:

1) It's weak and an indication that the storm is very disorganized.

2) The center is headed SW and into the Caribbean. (One model had that happening yesterday and was mocked)

3) My guess would be that Erika would wreck up on the Antilles.
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#3235 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:26 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Tropics_Dude83 wrote:57,

Remember your awesome "it's dead Jim" posts from prior years. I'm just wondering if it's time for one of those or not quite yet? The system does look horrendous right now.


No, even if it loses its LLC (all of them), it's still a significant tropical disturbance with the potential to develop IF the environment becomes more favorable.


i thought downgrade to open wave qualifies for "Bones",,no "next" yet from South Miami so i guess you guys arent giving up yet
0 likes   

OURAGAN
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 451
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#3236 Postby OURAGAN » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:26 pm

i agree.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#3237 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:29 pm

Has anybody noticed the 12Z GFS builds in alot more ridging now in the Western Atlantic and Eastern CONUS......?

I'm thinking that if it develops into a hurricane it may still very well bend back west in the long-range and not recurve.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA - Computer Models

#3238 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:29 pm

I guess we can conclude HWRF isn't reading the funky air and shear and is therefore wack.
0 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1921
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA - Computer Models

#3239 Postby otowntiger » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS actually has a weak low approaching the FL Keys then turning northward as an upper trof across the SE U.S. approaches. It has high pressure (500mb) across the Gulf, high pressure east of the Bahamas and a trof southward through Florida next Tue/Wed.


who would have thought this could be a Florida storm at this point? Unbelievable.

Looked like a shoe-in recurve east of the Bahamas yesterday. What will be track tomorrow?


Correction: Who would have thought this would have been a Florida "Wave"?
0 likes   

User avatar
Dave
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 13442
Age: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Milan Indiana
Contact:

#3240 Postby Dave » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:30 pm

URNT15 KNHC 021728
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 08 20090902
171830 1742N 06157W 9594 00438 0086 +235 +169 074026 027 032 001 00
171900 1741N 06156W 9593 00439 0086 +232 +171 072026 028 032 001 00
171930 1740N 06155W 9593 00440 0086 +232 +172 074026 028 032 000 00
172000 1739N 06154W 9596 00435 0087 +230 +173 071024 026 031 001 00
172030 1738N 06153W 9593 00440 0086 +233 +174 071023 025 999 999 03
172100 1736N 06152W 9594 00438 0085 +234 +176 074023 025 999 999 03
172130 1735N 06150W 9590 00439 0085 +232 +177 076024 025 999 999 03
172200 1734N 06149W 9597 00436 0086 +232 +178 077023 024 999 999 03
172230 1733N 06148W 9594 00436 0086 +230 +179 073023 024 999 999 03
172300 1732N 06147W 9597 00435 0086 +230 +180 074022 023 999 999 03
172330 1731N 06146W 9597 00435 0085 +230 +179 072025 026 999 999 03
172400 1730N 06145W 9593 00437 0085 +230 +179 070025 026 999 999 03
172430 1729N 06144W 9591 00440 0085 +229 +179 070024 025 029 003 03
172500 1728N 06143W 9598 00433 0084 +230 +179 071025 025 031 001 00
172530 1727N 06142W 9593 00436 0084 +232 +179 072025 026 030 002 00
172600 1726N 06141W 9594 00435 0083 +234 +178 072025 026 032 000 00
172630 1725N 06140W 9593 00436 0083 +235 +178 070026 026 032 000 03
172700 1724N 06139W 9592 00437 0082 +232 +179 068027 027 033 000 03
172730 1723N 06137W 9593 00436 0082 +233 +180 068028 028 032 000 00
172800 1722N 06136W 9594 00435 0082 +232 +180 068027 027 033 000 00
$$
;
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests