fci wrote:Stormcenter wrote:I just got back from a long meeting and read the NHC discussion. I wouldn't bet too much on Erika doing too much more (as things look now) then a heavy rain maker. I cannot ever recall reading such a doom and gloom discussion from the NHC concerning any named tropical system. Erika like it's siblings is fighting a losing battle with shear. I personally cannot see any reason to argue any of their (NHC) points. This of course is just my opinion based on how things stand currently. By the way yes I do know that even a TS can cause death and destruction so I'm not down playing her potential.
Thank you.
You put it clearly and hope many read it.
The NHC rarely forecasts the demise of a system like this.
One that is racing out into the North Atlantic, yeah.
But not one in the tropics like this, in September; at the height of the season (I know 9/10 is statistically the "height" of the season).
So, Erika looks like toast as it relates to being a destructive wind storm.
But, as stormcenter put it, this is not to minimize the destruction that a rainmaker can be on The Islands.
This has the potential to be severe for the rain aspect as opposed to the wind of a hurricane.
Like Luis has said, waves and disturbed areas can be horrific for the islands for the flooding, mudslides and misery they can cause.
Good luck to our friends in The Islands.
For those here in Florida and GOM'ers, yes; this could be a problem down the road and, yes; there have been systems that have done so in the past; BUT; if this goes as the NHC predicts and is a remnant low in 5 days; you should direct your interests elsewhere.
Just my $.02
First of all I am hoping for pure and complete poofication of Erika. That is what our friends in the Islands need right now. However, I am realistic enough to watch Erika until there isn't even enough energy left to light up the letter r in remnant low. IF Erika or her remains make it to the GOM it is still expected to be a harsh environment and I hope it stays that way. We are enjoying very pleasant almost fall like weather here in Houston and even though that doesn't stop TC's from forming it usually makes it a lot harder for one to get to us, Ike notwithstanding(we hadn't had any weather even near this last year when Ike visited). IOW, someone please take away all of Erika's energy so we don't have to deal with this down the road-preferably take it away right now.