ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[O Town]

That shows it well in the imagery, thx Aquawind.
I knew I wasn't crazy.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sorry aquawind, you beat me to it.

[chzzdekr81]

Is Erika splitting up into two storms?

[Aquawind]

No Probs.. noticed it about 30 minutes ago.. IR2 good for night time viewing..

[Aquawind]

Is Erika splitting up into two storms?

Unlikely.. more like a possible LLC west/Erika and this MLC associated with the ~persistant convection.. unlikely the MLC will make it to the surface as the convection is rather whimpy in the area..

[canes04]

17n 60.5w is the area we need to watch tonight.

Some people here including pro mets seem to write off these systems so quickly.
Again, to much energy with this one to just dissapate in the night.

[chrisjslucia]

Only 30 minutes since my last post from St Lucia and now we have major lightning out to the north west / west north west and thunder and lightning coming in from the north east / east north east, bringing the first drops of rain. Still very little wind. It feels like two storms (!) but Erika is a big ting. It's been useful to follow the lack of accuracy in the tracking forecast models - a lesson to never take anything for granted!

[chzzdekr81]

Is Erika splitting up into two storms?

Unlikely.. more like a possible LLC west and this MLC associated with the ~persistant convection.. unlikely the MLC will make it to the surface as the convection is rather whimpy in the area..

LOL, I have no idea what that means (I'm only 13) But I hope to learn more as I grow up and hopefully become a meteorlogist And I had a question. If Erika has been moving South-Southwest, then why is NHC saying it's moving West?

[Bocadude85]

Only 30 minutes since my last post from St Lucia and now we have major lightning out to the north west / west north west and thunder and lightning coming in from the north east / east north east, bringing the first drops of rain. Still very little wind. It feels like two storms (!) but Erika is a big ting. It's been useful to follow the lack of accuracy in the tracking forecast models - a lesson to never take anything for granted!

Wasnt there some kind of study done that links intense lightning to intensifying storms?

[hcane27]

http://hurricanealley.net/HAnorthatlantic.htm

[chzzdekr81]

Only 30 minutes since my last post from St Lucia and now we have major lightning out to the north west / west north west and thunder and lightning coming in from the north east / east north east, bringing the first drops of rain. Still very little wind. It feels like two storms (!) but Erika is a big ting. It's been useful to follow the lack of accuracy in the tracking forecast models - a lesson to never take anything for granted!

Wasnt there some kind of study done that links intense lightning to intensifying storms?

I heard that somewhere. But I don't think Erika is intensifying right now...
10th Post!

[Air Force Met]

is anyone else noting that spin she has going now in her far upper right hand corner? Look at it on loop in the enhanced and it is clearly there. 18/56
OTown asked if it was the mlc and hasn't gotten a response either. Anyone?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

No, don't see it.

I see what he's talking about. Looks like a vort max moving drifting northward. Looks like its sitting b/w 350-450 mb's...20-25K feet. Yet another "bad sign."

[SapphireSea]

Around 18N and 56W I see some sort of ML or UL vort, I am not sure if it's some sort of sat mirage. This thing is a complete mess when it comes to system organization. I dont see anything that resembles another vort 17.5 and 60. I think this is just unorganized CAPE being expended, as I said a few days ago.

A few hours ago I noted this. One additional reason why I agree with the pros on weakening here.

[Aquawind]

Is Erika splitting up into two storms?

Unlikely.. more like a possible LLC west and this MLC associated with the ~persistant convection.. unlikely the MLC will make it to the surface as the convection is rather whimpy in the area..

LOL, I have no idea what that means (I'm only 13) But I hope to learn more as I grow up and hopefully become a meteorlogist And I had a question. If Erika has been moving South-Southwest, then why is NHC saying it's moving West?

LLC is low level circulation and MLC is middle level circulation.. LLC is the core on a Tropical System it's as the surface and that is what the NHC follows.. not MLCs..

Don't follow the thunderstorms for true motion of the LLC/Erika.. THe low level circulation IS the storm.. THunderstorms can be far away from the LLC and develop and move because of normal weather activity and thus make it seem like the storm but not really..yep it can be confusing and you are not alone..

[HUC]

here insouth tip of Guadeloupe (Basse-Terre) rain light to moderate (15mm since 5pm )winds blowing now from the SSE 15 to 20kh,few ligting.Nothing particular at the moment...Perhaps the big blob extending from the NE may bring bad weather??Stay tuned

[HurricaneRobert]

It's just impossible for this to get vertically stacked. What is HWRF smoking?

[SapphireSea]

It's just impossible for this to get vertically stacked. What is HWRF smoking?

It is probobly initializing with faulty shear values from SHIPS which thought that by now it would be a minimal hurricane a day ago. Clearly 20kt shear or so on it now, probobly is believing the 3kt shear from SHIPS all the way through the forcast. Also it is probobly overestimating its organization ATM.

[artist]

Only 30 minutes since my last post from St Lucia and now we have major lightning out to the north west / west north west and thunder and lightning coming in from the north east / east north east, bringing the first drops of rain. Still very little wind. It feels like two storms (!) but Erika is a big ting. It's been useful to follow the lack of accuracy in the tracking forecast models - a lesson to never take anything for granted!

hope you guys don't get too much rain and wind. I hate lightning storms!

[chrisjslucia]

Well, I missed this advice from Antigua Met office earlier on StormCari, but it seems to be happening:
Subject: TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm ERIKA

Storm Alert issued at 2 Sep, 2009 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm ERIKA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Guadeloupe
probability for TS is 100% currently
Dominica
probability for TS is 100% currently
Martinique
probability for TS is 100% currently
St. Lucia
probability for TS is 100% currently
Antigua and Barbuda
probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours

[chzzdekr81]

:) LLC is low level circulation and MLC is middle level circulation.. LLC is the core on a Tropical System it's as the surface and that is what the NHC follows.. not MLCs..

Don't follow the thunderstorms for true motion of the LLC/Erika.. THe low level circulation IS the storm.. THunderstorms can be far away from the LLC and develop and move because of normal weather activity and thus make it seem like the storm but not really..yep it can be confusing and you are not alone..

Got it Thanks for your help