ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURRICANELONNY]

In regards to the shear. Is the trof in the carribean heading west or stationary?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Gustywind]

Thanks for the upclose and personal updates Gusty ... keep treading water

Tkanks my friend i appreciate i will keep your informed as possible. Yeah we monitor the rain threat, flooding, even muslides in Guadeloupe.

[HURAKAN]

535
URNT15 KNHC 031157
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 43 20090903
114730 1646N 06257W 8426 01596 0114 +185 +136 264001 002 000 006 03
114800 1645N 06257W 8432 01589 0115 +183 +137 109001 003 999 999 03
114830 1644N 06258W 8427 01596 0118 +182 +138 105003 004 999 999 03
114900 1644N 06300W 8428 01592 0119 +178 +138 133008 010 002 006 03
114930 1645N 06301W 8433 01587 0114 +181 +137 140008 010 008 005 00
115000 1647N 06302W 8426 01594 0118 +176 +135 120010 011 014 006 00
115030 1648N 06303W 8432 01589 0117 +180 +133 122008 009 016 006 03
115100 1649N 06305W 8429 01593 0116 +181 +132 125010 012 016 005 00
115130 1650N 06306W 8431 01591 0116 +183 +131 117012 012 014 005 00
115200 1652N 06307W 8432 01589 0116 +184 +131 113011 012 015 005 00
115230 1653N 06308W 8433 01589 0114 +185 +131 115012 013 012 005 00
115300 1654N 06310W 8429 01594 0113 +187 +132 095015 015 013 004 00
115330 1656N 06311W 8430 01589 0111 +188 +133 086013 013 010 005 00
115400 1657N 06312W 8429 01594 0112 +188 +134 088014 015 008 005 00
115430 1658N 06313W 8430 01592 0114 +185 +136 088016 016 012 004 00
115500 1659N 06314W 8429 01594 0116 +181 +137 088015 015 008 005 00
115530 1701N 06316W 8430 01592 0115 +183 +137 090015 016 006 005 03
115600 1702N 06317W 8430 01589 0117 +180 +137 094017 018 000 005 03
115630 1703N 06318W 8432 01591 0118 +177 +137 095018 018 999 999 03
115700 1704N 06319W 8428 01592 0118 +177 +137 094019 020 999 999 03
$$
;

[storms NC]

Erika still going I see this morning. I don't think she will die out like they are calling for. I think she will take of like a bird. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if her does when she get away from the islands and into the gulf stream.
I do believe that the news here are down playing her. For the fear that no one would come to the beaches. It is a big week end for them. I think they think the TS wouldn't be here before Monday or Tuesday So they would give them time for the people to go and come before the TS would come up to the South east coast. I still think it will come the eastern seaboard. SC and NC should keep 1 eye open on this as they play this weekend.

Tell me why do they have her to fall apart? Skip said last night wouldn't make it to the Bahamas before she would die out. He said cause of the Mt's it had to cross. Now if she had stayed on the path she was on last night I would have said yeah gone out of here. But now a new path could change the whole Pic. I will keep up with you all and see what some of you are thinking. There are a few good one on here that are not pros but you should be.

[wxman57]

104730 1646N 06057W 8428 01588 0149 +129 +088 146049 051 046 033 00
104800 1648N 06057W 8429 01589 0148 +130 +087 151045 047 051 027 00
104830 1650N 06057W 8432 01588 0148 +131 +088 153043 046 049 034 03
104900 1652N 06057W 8411 01609 0148 +131 +089 157042 049 059 050 03

59kt SMFR suspect right?

The SMFR in that line is 49 knots and it's flagged

What constantly amazes me with these obs is the frequency of which SFMR (surface) winds are measured as being significantly higher than FL winds. I've seen it over and over with each storm they fly SFMR into. Makes me wonder if the SFMR instrumentation needs better calibration.

There are plenty of surface obs across the NE Caribbean and all I'm seeing are winds in the 5-15 kt range. Here's a current surface map. I went back several hours and still see only about 10 kts in the area. I know there can be spotty higher winds in squalls, but the obs across the NE Caribbean are representative of the general flow around Erika's center. Oh, and that buoy just west of the center just had a pressure rise to 1011.1MB with a north wind. Not a sign of strengthening if the center is approaching.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

638
URNT15 KNHC 031207
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 44 20090903
115730 1706N 06321W 8430 01590 0118 +175 +137 092020 020 999 999 03
115800 1707N 06322W 8429 01592 0119 +175 +136 095020 021 999 999 03
115830 1708N 06323W 8429 01592 0119 +176 +136 092021 023 999 999 03
115900 1710N 06325W 8430 01590 0119 +180 +135 083026 027 999 999 03
115930 1711N 06326W 8429 01592 0118 +179 +135 081028 029 999 999 03
120000 1712N 06327W 8431 01590 0121 +175 +134 084029 029 999 999 03
120030 1714N 06328W 8429 01595 0123 +175 +134 091030 031 999 999 03
120100 1715N 06330W 8432 01592 0123 +175 +134 091030 030 999 999 03
120130 1716N 06331W 8431 01593 0123 +175 +134 088029 029 999 999 03
120200 1717N 06332W 8425 01599 0121 +180 +134 092030 031 999 999 03
120230 1719N 06334W 8430 01592 0124 +174 +134 088030 031 999 999 03
120300 1720N 06335W 8431 01591 0123 +174 +134 081026 027 999 999 03
120330 1721N 06336W 8428 01597 0121 +178 +134 083025 025 999 999 03
120400 1723N 06337W 8430 01596 0123 +177 +133 080024 025 999 999 03
120430 1724N 06339W 8429 01597 0122 +180 +132 077025 025 999 999 03
120500 1725N 06340W 8432 01593 0123 +180 +132 076026 026 999 999 03
120530 1726N 06341W 8430 01596 0123 +180 +133 075025 026 999 999 03
120600 1728N 06342W 8429 01599 0124 +180 +134 072025 025 999 999 03
120630 1729N 06344W 8433 01596 0125 +176 +134 074025 025 999 999 03
120700 1730N 06345W 8430 01597 0126 +175 +135 075025 025 999 999 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

649
URNT12 KNHC 031212
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062009
A. 03/11:47:30Z
B. 16 deg 47 min N
062 deg 57 min W
C. 850 mb 1522 m
D. 20 kt
E. 037 deg 74 nm
F. 096 deg 29 kt
G. 039 deg 91 nm
H. 1010 mb
I. 16 C / 1525 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0406A ERIKA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 49 KT E QUAD 10:48:50Z
MAX FL TEMP 26 C 002 / 34 NM FROM FL CNTR
ASSOCIATED DROP SONDE DATA ARE GOOD BUT DROP MESSAGE IS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. SFC WIND FROM DROP SONDE WAS 11607KT.
;

[storms NC]

This is out of Wilm at 7:48 AM today


[THE WILD CARD REMAINS WHAT HAPPENS WITH ERIKA EITHER IN
HER CURRENT STATE AS A TROPICAL STORM OR AS A TROPICAL
WAVE...WHICH COULD BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE IN THE
PERIOD.]

[HURAKAN]

649
URNT12 KNHC 031212
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062009
A. 03/11:47:30Z
B. 16 deg 47 min N
062 deg 57 min W
C. 850 mb 1522 m
D. 20 kt
E. 037 deg 74 nm
F. 096 deg 29 kt
G. 039 deg 91 nm
H. 1010 mb
I. 16 C / 1525 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0406A ERIKA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 49 KT E QUAD 10:48:50Z
MAX FL TEMP 26 C 002 / 34 NM FROM FL CNTR
ASSOCIATED DROP SONDE DATA ARE GOOD BUT DROP MESSAGE IS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. SFC WIND FROM DROP SONDE WAS 11607KT.
;

[Tropicswatcher]

Mid level circulation forming between Guataloupe and Antigua.Check out the radar loop
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

I was about to say something in reference to that mid-level feature! It has been pretty evident for the last hour!

[HURAKAN]

Not a lot of movement between passes

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

742
URNT15 KNHC 031217
AF307 0406A ERIKA HDOB 45 20090903
120730 1732N 06346W 8429 01598 0123 +179 +136 074025 025 000 004 03
120800 1733N 06347W 8430 01598 0125 +178 +136 071026 027 000 004 03
120830 1734N 06349W 8428 01600 0126 +177 +136 069027 027 999 999 03
120900 1735N 06350W 8433 01596 0125 +180 +136 069026 026 000 003 03
120930 1737N 06351W 8430 01596 0127 +177 +137 068026 027 000 004 03
121000 1738N 06352W 8433 01594 0124 +181 +137 062027 028 000 004 03
121030 1739N 06354W 8430 01598 0129 +176 +137 065026 027 999 999 03
121100 1740N 06355W 8433 01596 0128 +177 +138 064026 026 999 999 03
121130 1742N 06356W 8425 01603 0131 +171 +139 065025 026 999 999 03
121200 1743N 06357W 8432 01598 0129 +177 +139 063026 027 999 999 03
121230 1744N 06359W 8429 01602 0128 +178 +138 062025 025 999 999 03
121300 1745N 06400W 8430 01600 0128 +180 +138 064026 027 999 999 03
121330 1747N 06401W 8429 01601 0128 +178 +138 066027 028 999 999 03
121400 1748N 06402W 8432 01601 0129 +180 +139 063025 026 999 999 03
121430 1749N 06403W 8429 01602 0129 +179 +139 064026 027 999 999 03
121500 1750N 06405W 8430 01601 0129 +180 +139 063025 025 999 999 03
121530 1751N 06406W 8429 01605 0130 +178 +139 064025 025 999 999 03
121600 1753N 06407W 8430 01602 0130 +176 +139 064024 024 999 999 03
121630 1754N 06408W 8430 01601 0131 +175 +138 064025 025 999 999 03
121700 1755N 06410W 8429 01602 0133 +175 +138 067026 027 999 999 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[x-y-no]

What constantly amazes me with these obs is the frequency of which SFMR (surface) winds are measured as being significantly higher than FL winds. I've seen it over and over with each storm they fly SFMR into. Makes me wonder if the SFMR instrumentation needs better calibration.

Yeah, I've had the same thought many times. On the other hand, there are times when the SFMR looks very reasonable relative to flight level. I imagine there's some factor they haven't figured out yet which can cause a high bias.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030841 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST THU SEP 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
TROPICAL STORM ERICA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPROACH TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. GLOBAL FORECAST
MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONTINUE TO BRING ERIKA VERY
CLOSE OR ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MAIN THREAT TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGHLY
DISORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF THE
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE VI
DURING THE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE EVENING. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...TS ERIKA NOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BTWN
DOMINICA AND GUADELOUPE WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST NEAR
5 MPH. EXPECT THESE ISLANDS AND THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TO
EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TROPICAL
FORCE WINDS WITH STRONG TSRA AS ERIKA CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND APPROACHES THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. WX CONDS WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE ACROSS TISX...TIST BY 03/14Z...THEN
EVENTUALLY PR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AVIATORS
SHOULD GET FREQUENT UPDATES AS THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. CLOUDINESS AND SHRA WITH ISOLD TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER PR AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURG THE
DAY WITH BRIEF LIFR/MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN DETERIORATING THIS
MORNING AND WILL BEGIN TO GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MOVES NEAR OR ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 70 70 50 40
STT 90 79 85 79 / 80 70 50 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN
INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

&&

$$

09/72

[x-y-no]

Mid-level shear in the Caribbean is pretty brutal and doesn't seem to be going anywhere too fast ...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

If it keeps heading west it's in for more rough times. Of course if it goes over Hispaniola it's in for even rougher times.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 63.1W OR ABOUT 35 NM
SW OF ST. KITTS AND ABOUT 190 NM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MOVING WNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ERIKA IS
POORLY-DEFINED AND MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 19N60W
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 13N63W.

...$$
WALLACE