ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Derek Ortt]

they are not recurve from the USA, they are recurve from Florida

[Air Force Met]

Not to be too much of a nasayer but read this taken from the 8:00 NHC discussion:
"ERIKA IS POORLY-DEFINED AND MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST."

I read that ealyer this morning But she has her own mine to what she wants to do. So far NHC has been having the hard time with her. They have said so them selfs. She looks better than she did at 6 AM when I got up.

With a min-cntl pres of 1010...she doesn't have to weaken that much more until she does open up into a wave.

[Stormcenter]

Basically it's a different day but the same story with Erika and the NHC seems to give her little if any chance per their morning discussion. She looks more like a vigorous tropical wave then anything else. IMO Oh well we shall.

[Gustywind]

For those who may be interested in seeing how Erika progresses through the day...here are 2 webcams...one from the town side (south) of St. Thomas and one from Magen's Bay that shows the northside of St. Thomas

http://reservationsbvi.com/web%20cams/s ... 20cam.html

http://reservationsbvi.com/web%20cams/M ... 20Cam.html

Tkanks BatVI be safe

[BatzVI]

Thanks Gusty...guess you made it through okay....

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection waning this morning: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[Derek Ortt]

the circ is better defined than yesterday. This does not look like its opening up

[Stormcenter]

I read that discussion this morning and that would great news if
it pans out especially if it cools the waters just a bit. IMO

Well according to the New Olreans office NWS if whatevers left of Erika trys to enter the gulf they don't think it will be there long next week.


.LONG TERM...
THE OTHER ADDITION TO ALL THIS IS AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT HAS SO FAR
BEEN RELATIVELY INERT. IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT ABOUT 80W. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF ALMOST UNDETECTED UNTIL IT
BEGINS TO COLLIDE AND REACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SAT.
A GOOD BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THIS AND
MOVE ON STORM MOTION VECTORS TO THE NE. A SFC LOW MAY EVEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUN
AND MON. THIS SFC LOW LOOKS TILTED SOMWHAT BACK TO THE WEST AND
EVEN HAS A SFC TROUGH ATTACHED WHICH RELATES MORE WITH A BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM THAN A TRUE TROPICAL ONE...BUT HAS A STRONG DEEP TROPICAL
FETCH THAT IT TAKES FULL ADVANTAGE OF. THIS WILL ALL CAUSE A
STRONG UPPER VORT TO DROP TO THE BASE OF THE CURRENT UPPER LONG
WAVE TROUGH REINFORCING IT A BIT.

THEN ENTERS ERIKA OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF TUE INTO WED. THE ERIKA
MESS GETS PICKED UP BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND USHERS IT
NORTHWARD. THIS IN TURN CAUSES A HUGE MASS OF DENSE COOL DRY AIR
TO BE DISPLACED FROM WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVE SOUTH. A
HUGE(WINTERLIKE) UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND DROPS
WELL INTO THE GULF BY FRI OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OF THE STRONGEST
TRUE COLD FRONTS SEEN IN A WHILE FOR THIS EARLY IN SEP. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING AND MORE
OR LESS WITH THE FINAL PATH OF ERIKA.

This definitetly sounds like it could shut the door for any gulf or east coast threats for a while.

[Gustywind]

Thanks Gusty...guess you made it through okay....

[GeneratorPower]

This has got to be the 3rd or 4th time I have seen one of these systems struggle, but still maintain a large area of convection. It happened last year and I think the year before.

Rather than downgrade to a wave, I think there should be a specific name for this type of system. Something other than "a-sorta-tropical-cyclone-that-has-no-center-but-still-has-winds-that-can-knock-you-on-you-backside-so-we-need-advisories-in-case-it-turns-into-Humberto" sorta name.

[HURAKAN]

Quikscat plus satellite

[Tropicswatcher]

the circ is better defined than yesterday. This does not look like its opening up

Radar observations and satellite agree on that. Now we need the pressure to respond to it.

[hurricanetrack]

Equals Erika still there.

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, this is definitely the best she has looked in the last 24 hours... the center is weak but under the convection. Question is, can she withstand another round of day time shear, and will the convection persist. I agree with Derek, doesn't appear to be opening up. I think it looks like it is trying to wrap. The center still looks elongated on that QScat, but less so than yesterday.

[cycloneye]

For those who may be interested in seeing how Erika progresses through the day...here are 2 webcams...one from the town side (south) of St. Thomas and one from Magen's Bay that shows the northside of St. Thomas

http://reservationsbvi.com/web%20cams/s ... 20cam.html

http://reservationsbvi.com/web%20cams/M ... 20Cam.html

I add them to the first post of our tent thread where all the web cams are on the Eastern Caribbean members at Weather Attic forum.

[BatzVI]

Thanks Luis....stay safe in PR

[jpigott]

can someone post a link to the Guadaloupe radar? I've gone back a few pages and can't seem to locate it

[cycloneye]

can someone post a link to the Guadaloupe radar? I've gone back a few pages and can't seem to locate it

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Bocadude85]

New GFS, SE FL landfall (again) at 144 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

GFS has been very consistent in bringing whatever is left of Ericka into Florida.

[Gustywind]

Not sure she has give up...be on your guard all in the islands! Thunder is rumbling nicely for 10 minutes, isolated lightnings seems to making a small comeback.
Erika is growing in size, expanding convection in all quadrants...