ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[jpigott]

can someone post a link to the Guadaloupe radar? I've gone back a few pages and can't seem to locate it

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

thanks, looks like something is trying to wrap up just east of the islands

[BobHarlem]

can someone post a link to the Guadaloupe radar? I've gone back a few pages and can't seem to locate it

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

thanks, looks like something is trying to wrap up just east of the islands

The long term loop is at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69 -- under the radar, click "Play" then increase animation speed... Faster
It appears a new center may be trying to form under the west part of the convection, at least at the mid levels.

[Evil Jeremy]

So a chunk of the models are back on the recurve scenario. Man this is nuts lol. I would not be surprised if we get TS warnings for PR by the end of the hour. What is everyone's take on the latest model runs taking a recurve route again?

[Gustywind]

can someone post a link to the Guadaloupe radar? I've gone back a few pages and can't seem to locate it

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

thanks, looks like something is trying to wrap up just east of the islands

Hummm... at what lat long?

[tolakram]

In my opinion that loop shows how far the LLC is from the MLC. The shear is continually hampering development.

[sandyb]

New GFS, SE FL landfall (again) at 144 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

GFS has been very consistent in bringing whatever is left of Ericka into Florida.

i see nothing but a little rain hitting florida i say its gonna rebuild later and come up the coast closer to NC

[tailgater]

can someone post a link to the Guadaloupe radar? I've gone back a few pages and can't seem to locate it

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

thanks, looks like something is trying to wrap up just east of the islands

We think it's at the mid levels right now but who knows with next with Erika.

[Bocadude85]

Does look like a MLC on that radar loop... perhaps it will work its way down to the surface?

[sandyb]

are they out there now when will they fly in again?

[Sanibel]

So the Guadeloupe center was the center as the QuickScat shows.


GFDL likes a major hurricane recurving just east of the Bahamas.

[sandyb]

yall sound like you want this thing to develop

[Stormcenter]

That is a very loaded question for some on this board.

yall sound like you want this thing to develop

[Evil Jeremy]

yall sound like you want this thing to develop

I will admit to this lol. Its been a slow season, I want something to track lol.

[Sanibel]

Coming in range of Puerto Rican long range radar.


Methinks Hispaniola will rip this one up.

[Nederlander]

yall sound like you want this thing to develop

I don't think there would be very many people on s2k if every one of these things just fizzled out and never developed..

[canes04]

shear has dropped off, it has a window to strenghten today.
I will go with a hurricane if this moves north of PR & DR.

[DESTRUCTION5]

shear has dropped off, it has a window to strenghten today.
I will go with a hurricane if this moves north of PR & DR.

Hurricane in or around the Bahamas looks like a very good possibility to me...

But thats JMHO..

[sandyb]

i'm not saying I dont want it to, cause I do but if you say you do you get blasted from some folks, thats why i'm here hoping to see someone say something good about its development the hurricane center sure is not giving us much hope. And I have to say if it does develop it comes up this way to NC sorry but putting out the facts fun to track and I enjoy the waves wind and excitment that comes along with these storms

[Evil Jeremy]

i'm not saying I dont want it to, cause I do but if you say you do you get blasted from some folks, thats why i'm here hoping to see someone say something good about its development the hurricane center sure is not giving us much hope. And I have to say if it does develop it comes up this way to NC sorry but putting out the facts fun to track and I enjoy the waves wind and excitment that comes along with these storms

Many of us here enjoy the excitement these storms provide. Anyways, the NHC is not giving it a big chance because it takes it into the DR. If it goes north of the DR, it won't have to ddeal with land and mountain interaction and could have a better chance.

[vbhoutex]

Kudos to deltadog03. He picked this as where the center was reforming last night and it appears he was correct. I couldn't find it hardly at all(had my doubts) but it is most definitely there this morning. As far as a definite LLCC this is the first time I think Erika has had one. It is not swirling around a larger cc like the other vortexes we have seen. Does this bode well for intensification? I don't think so since there is still plenty of shear for her to deal with. Could be a whole new ball game once the shear abates though. Must be Danny's sister. Persistent little cuss to say the least.