ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Evil Jeremy]

TS Warning for PR

AT 1500 UTC...11 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

are they out there now when will they fly in again?

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76
A. 03/1800Z, 04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0506A ERIKA
C. 03/1700Z
D. 17.7N 63.57W
E. 03/1715Z TO 03/2345Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

They leave in less than three hours

[Sanibel]

I disagree with this center being "reformed". I think it's right where the Guadeloupe center was all along.

[wxman57]

Coming in range of Puerto Rican long range radar.


Methinks Hispaniola will rip this one up.

Problem is that there isn't much to rip up. A barely identifiable LLC with sheared convection to the east can't weaken much more than it already has. Fortunately, it does appear as though wind shear west of the DR should prevent redevelopment in the Bahamas. Remember, the GFDL doesn't see wind shear very well, and the HWRF hasn't proven to be superior to the GFDL yet. And, as evident over the past 3-4 days, the SHIPS model doesn't see shear well either. So I'd be hesitant to believe any predictions of intensification.

[HURAKAN]

525
WTNT21 KNHC 031433
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2009

AT 1500 UTC...11 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...
GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY... ANTIGUA...
BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.
MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 63.5W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 63.5W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 63.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.4N 66.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.2N 67.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.0N 68.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.0N 73.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 63.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[caneseddy]

Many of us here enjoy the excitement these storms provide. Anyways, the NHC is not giving it a big chance because it takes it into the DR. If it goes north of the DR, it won't have to ddeal with land and mountain interaction and could have a better chance.

Actually, the NHC tracjk from this morning takes it over PR and exiting through the NW tip of the island and skirting the DR

[HURAKAN]

971
WTNT41 KNHC 031437
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2009

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT
ERIKA HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THAT THE
CENTER IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A LITTLE...TO 1010 MB. THERE WERE A
FEW UN-FLAGGED SFMR READINGS OF WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN
THE CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE 1200 UTC RADIOSONDE DATA STILL SHOW
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WEST OF
ERIKA...AND THE SAN JUAN RAOB SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY MID- AND
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THIS
EVIDENCE...PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...SUGGESTS THAT
ERIKA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE THIS...
ALMOST ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE KEEPS ERIKA AS AT LEAST A
TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HOLDING ERIKA AS A TROPICAL
STORM THROUGH 12 HOURS AND SLOWLY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE TO A
REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3.

AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INCLUDING DATA FROM NOAA
BUOY 42060...SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF ERIKA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
THE ISLAND OF ST. KITTS AND THE BUOY. HOWEVER...THESE DATA ALSO
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY WELL DEFINED. ERIKA
IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/07. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF ERIKA...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...OR
NORTHWARD...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
IN ISOLATED AREAS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS TO REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THOSE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.

EVEN IF ERIKA LOSES ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...IT COULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG ITS TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 16.9N 63.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 17.5N 64.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 18.4N 66.1W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0000Z 19.2N 67.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 20.0N 68.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1200Z 23.0N 73.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Bocadude85]

New GFS, SE FL landfall (again) at 144 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

GFS has been very consistent in bringing whatever is left of Ericka into Florida.

i see nothing but a little rain hitting florida i say its gonna rebuild later and come up the coast closer to NC

Thats fine send up to NC we dont want it here in FL

[storms NC]

i'm not saying I dont want it to, cause I do but if you say you do you get blasted from some folks, thats why i'm here hoping to see someone say something good about its development the hurricane center sure is not giving us much hope. And I have to say if it does develop it comes up this way to NC sorry but putting out the facts fun to track and I enjoy the waves wind and excitment that comes along with these storms

Not a NHC forcast
I think it will come to NC just cause 3 time is the charm. We have had 2 to pass us. I don't think we will have the 3rd to pass us by. I think NC will be hit. Not a NHC forcast JMHO

[knotimpaired]

TS Warning for PR

AT 1500 UTC...11 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

EJ, where are you finding that. There is nothing in the San Juan discussion that states that. It says we are still under a watch.

[Sanibel]

2009 hasn't shown any reason to expect significant intensification. You always have to watch for it, but there's very little reason to expect it.


Like Bertha, Bill found the one good pocket up into the Atlantic. The rest of the basin has been unfavorable. As always, you never know when conditions will change and open up a good pocket.

[cycloneye]

[hurricanetrack]

Question: if the models don't see the shear, then who does and where do they see it? Then why not tell the models there is shear?

[wxman57]

I think it's very clear that the center isn't where the NHC says it is at 15Z, keeping in mind that the 15Z position is a 3-hr forecast from 12Z. And it's looking more evident in all the surface obs across the NE Caribbean that Erika has opened up into a wave. See the analysis below. Only a few current plots on it, but note that the center (crosshairs) is just north of a buoy that's reporting a SE wind at 20 kts. This is impossible. Either the buoy is wrong or the center is a bit west of the buoy, not north of it. OR, more likely, Erika has lost its LLC and is an open wave:

[Sanibel]

[Evil Jeremy]

TS Warning for PR

AT 1500 UTC...11 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

EJ, where are you finding that. There is nothing in the San Juan discussion that states that. It says we are still under a watch.

The 11AM advisory from the NHC. It might not be updated at the local NOAA station down there yet, but PR is under a TS warning.

[Derek Ortt]

not a wave, the center is near 64.2W

[wxman57]

Question: if the models don't see the shear, then who does and where do they see it? Then why not tell the models there is shear?

One problem is that there is just such limited upper air data over the oceans. Often, assumptions are made with the initialization that just aren't true. This is why there has been zero improvement in hurricane intensity forecasts over the past several decades. I'm hopeful that the next generation of GOES satellites (GOES-R, scheduled for first launch in 2014) will be able to take detailed atmospheric soundings of wind/moisture and then that data could be input into the models, resulting in much better intensity predictions.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

A weak LLC appears to be SSE of St. Croix

[knotimpaired]

Well that's that. Most people are not concerned here about it but I think many will regret that. Puerto Rico has a law that states when a TS Watch goes into effect, alcohol sales are banned from every establishment on the island.

So much for those naysayer's who will have a dry couple of days.