ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

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Derek Ortt

#4001 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:20 am

close to the time to send this to the glue factory. Right in time for college football season
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#4002 Postby canes04 » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:24 am

Here we go again, everyone writing her off. I will stick to my guns and say she survives and will be a hurricane down the road.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#4003 Postby SapphireSea » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:28 am

Her death has been in sight for 2 days. Its obvious that conditions are not favorable at this time in that area. There can be alot of whatifs, but there is almost no doubt that according to obs, there is nothing at the surface. This is an elongated trough tapping into latent convective potential in the area. Shear is helping maintain the storm activity IMO.
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#4004 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:28 am

Image

Erika
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Re:

#4005 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:29 am

Derek Ortt wrote:close to the time to send this to the glue factory. Right in time for college football season


NEXT
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#4006 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:31 am

I can't wait for CFB on saturday!! I am ready, plus it signals the end of summer, not my fav. season.
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Re: Re:

#4007 Postby StormClouds63 » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:33 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:close to the time to send this to the glue factory. Right in time for college football season


NEXT


Fred may be ready for his chance in a few days ... currently code yellow. Recurve as well?

Tigers at Huskies on Saturday night. Bayou Bengals are in a nasty mood after last season.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#4008 Postby RNGR » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:33 am

I have a question for the pros here. I dont see any shear over the convection when I look at the visible loops. however, I do see ALOT of outflow. how can this be? Seems to me that the reason for lack of convection over the LLC is dry air not shear.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#4009 Postby SapphireSea » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:37 am

RNGR wrote:I have a question for the pros here. I dont see any shear over the convection when I look at the visible loops. however, I do see ALOT of outflow. how can this be? Seems to me that the reason for lack of convection over the LLC is dry air not shear.


I may not be a pro, but dry air AND shear are responsible. You can clearly see some light streaks of clouds blowing off in higher storms. There is def shear on this.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#4010 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:40 am

RNGR wrote:I have a question for the pros here. I dont see any shear over the convection when I look at the visible loops. however, I do see ALOT of outflow. how can this be? Seems to me that the reason for lack of convection over the LLC is dry air not shear.


The shear is occuring at a level BELOW the outlfow level that you see on the satellite. Its called undercutting shear. The outflow level you see on the satellite is above 200 mb. The shear is occuring at about 300-200 mb.

Undercutting shear rips the guts out of systems...rather than just blowing the tops off. So...since it destroys their mid levels (and thus their ability to "stack")...it can be much more deadly...even when its not as strong.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#4011 Postby lrak » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:42 am

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

so the spin on this radar loop is upper level?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#4012 Postby RNGR » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:43 am

SapphireSea wrote:
RNGR wrote:I have a question for the pros here. I dont see any shear over the convection when I look at the visible loops. however, I do see ALOT of outflow. how can this be? Seems to me that the reason for lack of convection over the LLC is dry air not shear.


I may not be a pro, but dry air AND shear are responsible. You can clearly see some light streaks of clouds blowing off in higher storms. There is def shear on this.


A sheared system will have those high clouds streaking is one direction, the convection has them in all quadrants and they are spinning in a clockwise (anti-cyclonic) fashion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#4013 Postby RNGR » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:44 am

Air Force Met wrote:
RNGR wrote:I have a question for the pros here. I dont see any shear over the convection when I look at the visible loops. however, I do see ALOT of outflow. how can this be? Seems to me that the reason for lack of convection over the LLC is dry air not shear.


The shear is occuring at a level BELOW the outlfow level that you see on the satellite. Its called undercutting shear. The outflow level you see on the satellite is above 200 mb. The shear is occuring at about 300-200 mb.

Undercutting shear rips the guts out of systems...rather than just blowing the tops off. So...since it destroys their mid levels (and thus their ability to "stack")...it can be much more deadly...even when its not as strong.


ahh im surprised i didnt think of this. thanks.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#4014 Postby lrak » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:45 am

And when she dies, will the energy still go up the east coast or travel west towards central america?
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#4015 Postby SapphireSea » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:46 am

RNGR wrote:
SapphireSea wrote:
RNGR wrote:I have a question for the pros here. I dont see any shear over the convection when I look at the visible loops. however, I do see ALOT of outflow. how can this be? Seems to me that the reason for lack of convection over the LLC is dry air not shear.


I may not be a pro, but dry air AND shear are responsible. You can clearly see some light streaks of clouds blowing off in higher storms. There is def shear on this.


A sheared system will have those high clouds streaking is one direction, the convection has them in all quadrants and they are spinning in a clockwise (anti-cyclonic) fashion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html


Look closer. I see clouds being blown away probably consistent with what AFM just wrote. It is definitely there. I am not confusing the outflow. Its almost like smoke in the visible being blown NE.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#4016 Postby DanKellFla » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:47 am

canes04 wrote:Here we go again, everyone writing her off. I will stick to my guns and say she survives and will be a hurricane down the road.


By any chance, can you tell when was the last time you saw Elvis? :D
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#4017 Postby caribepr » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:56 am

Glad you all are onto NEXT and calling it dead as we get an upgraded storm warning and rains expected to be serious enough to cause flooding and associated damage.

So sorry you who hoped for her to blow up have to deal witha blow out. Obviously, you don't live in the Caribbean neighborhood. I guess it would make some feel better if Erika was roaring through as a hurricane headed to Florida/Texas/NC so it could be an IMPORTANT storm.

Geeze, I thought we'd moved beyond this mentality - and I thought the head honchos were the example setters...I guess so.
Last edited by caribepr on Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#4018 Postby vacanechaser » Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:57 am

DanKellFla wrote:
canes04 wrote:Here we go again, everyone writing her off. I will stick to my guns and say she survives and will be a hurricane down the road.


By any chance, can you tell when was the last time you saw Elvis? :D



well, last time i looked, she still fairly good... so maybe elvis has not left the building just yet!! :D



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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#4019 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:03 am

Not to mention a TON of dry air around.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA - Computer Models

#4020 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:06 am

Well GFS never loses her thru 78 hrs this run and keeps here N of DR..

Image
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