ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Evil Jeremy]

haha, nice lol.

[DESTRUCTION5]

haha, nice lol.

From wave into FL to Bombed out in the SW Atlantic....Gotta love it..

[Evil Jeremy]

haha, nice lol.

From wave into FL to Bombed out in the SW Atlantic....Gotta love it..

Lets place bets on where the next GFS run is going to end up lol.

[thetruesms]

Aw man, go to bed and try to get a little work done, and I miss the brief "Oh, will she make it?" moment and is back to looking sad

I can't wait for CFB on saturday!! I am ready, plus it signals the end of summer, not my fav. season.

Saturday? What do you mean Saturday? I've got my butt parked in front of the tv in 7.5 hours for So Carolina/NC State! North Texas/Ball State's just another half hour after that, and the big game of the night, Oregon/Boise State is only 9.5 hours away. Too bad my provider doesn't carry The Mtn, or I could catch some of Utah/Utah State, as well

Obviously, between the tropics and college football, I don't get a whole lot done during the fall

Erica had lived an amazing life even though it was rather short. Erica was a great friend; she was the kind of storm that spins by you when you need to do some tracking.
What is it that we remember when we think of Erica? I think everyone who knows her very well would agree with me on this. It was her sense of humor. We would go to bed thinking this is the end and we would wake up to a new hope of survival.
Erica’s death was not sudden. I remember when I heard the news I simply could not believe it. We all sat by and watched her slow demise. Erica was too young but as it slowly occurred to me I have realized that Erica indeed lived her life wonderfully. Erica was well-loved and I’m sure she’ll do much more in heaven. I will forever be grateful to have known Erica.
Erica is in heaven now and we are here at her funeral. This is not the time for us to grieve her death but it’s our time to celebrate her life. Don’t ever forget Erica.
So at this moment when we are about to lay her to rest, let’s all think back and remember how Erica touched our lives. How she made us laugh. This is not the moment for us to shed our tears but we should all be thankful that we were given the chance to have known a storm named Erica
Erica will forever be missed but I know in the right time, I will meet Erica again.

I don't know if this was the optimum time for a eulogy, but I was personally very touched

[thetruesms]

GFS?!?! Where did this come from?

[jlauderdal]

What are everyone's thoughts about the latest model runs favoring recurve again?

they have been so good to this point just keep watching them and at some point there will be a solution we can believe

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, we will get into mid-september next week, and still not much going on at all in the tropics. Just one of those years I guess....

[BatzVI]

Thankfully!!!!!!!!!!!

[Air Force Met]

hey bud!! loooong time no talk...I agree it looks TERRIBLE, but for some reason the GFS finally develops this one..12z run wow

i see that. Of course...GFS assumes it won't track over the GI's. Looks to me like Erika has no choice now but to trek over Hisp/PR. That will probably do her in. I also did note that the GFS isn't as bad with the shear later on as it has been.

But we all know how reliable upper air forecasts are...

[Weatherboy1]

I think Erika may have finally met her match, frankly. My personal, unprofessional opinion is that the last, lousy LLC of T.S. Erika will spin itself out into an open wave in the next several hours. Just too much adversity to overcome in this season of shear.

[Evil Jeremy]

The recon mission that should be taking off soon should be very telling. I think that recon will not find a LLC under the convection, and NHC will pull the plug at 5.

[cycloneye]

Wow, we will get into mid-september next week, and still not much going on at all in the tropics. Just one of those years I guess....

Thanks to El Nino,even if is not strong.

[jconsor]

I'm fairly confident that Erika or whatever is left of her is going to pass between the northeast coast of Hispaniola and 100 miles northeast of Hispaniola. The GFS and other models all suggest that the 850 mb and 700 mb ridge over the central and western Atlantic will change orientation from W-E to NW-SE over the next 48 hours as the western edge of the ridge gets eroded somewhat.

Many are assuming that because the models have been too far north with Erika all along they will continue to be. However, there are larger synoptic changes at work here than have not been present until now. Upper level wind forecasts are problematic, but I would put much more confidence in a 850-700 mb forecast, especially one all models agreed upon, than a 200 mb forecast.

I do think the 12z GFS is too far northeast with Erika over the next 2-3 days; the 00z was a more reasonable track.

hey bud!! loooong time no talk...I agree it looks TERRIBLE, but for some reason the GFS finally develops this one..12z run wow

i see that. Of course...GFS assumes it won't track over the GI's. Looks to me like Erika has no choice now but to trek over Hisp/PR. That will probably do her in. I also did note that the GFS isn't as bad with the shear later on as it has been.

But we all know how reliable upper air forecasts are...

[StormClouds63]

So far, 5/1/1 nearing peak (9/10/09) of season. Water vapor imagery shows conditions relatively hostile for anything developing after Erika's eventual departure. Cape Verde wave just emerging may be inhibited by SAL.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not yet convinced that this system is going to completely die over the Islands. A good bit of energy with this and lots of warm water to the north of the islands, if she gets in a fairly good environment it could very well take off!

[Lifesgud2]

Dean,

I hear you loud and clear, however I personally think the party is over on this one. Could be a rain maker for SFL

[Evil Jeremy]

are they out there now when will they fly in again?

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76
A. 03/1800Z, 04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0506A ERIKA
C. 03/1700Z
D. 17.7N 63.57W
E. 03/1715Z TO 03/2345Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

They leave in less than three hours

Shouldnt they have taken off by now?

[jpigott]

I'm fairly confident that Erika or whatever is left of her is going to pass between the northeast coast of Hispaniola and 100 miles northeast of Hispaniola. The GFS and other models all suggest that the 850 mb and 700 mb ridge over the central and western Atlantic will change orientation from W-E to NW-SE over the next 48 hours as the western edge of the ridge gets eroded somewhat.

Many are assuming that because the models have been too far north with Erika all along they will continue to be. However, there are larger synoptic changes at work here than have not been present until now. Upper level wind forecasts are problematic, but I would put much more confidence in a 850-700 mb forecast, especially one all models agreed upon, than a 200 mb forecast.

I do think the 12z GFS is too far northeast with Erika over the next 2-3 days; the 00z was a more reasonable track.

hey bud!! loooong time no talk...I agree it looks TERRIBLE, but for some reason the GFS finally develops this one..12z run wow

i see that. Of course...GFS assumes it won't track over the GI's. Looks to me like Erika has no choice now but to trek over Hisp/PR. That will probably do her in. I also did note that the GFS isn't as bad with the shear later on as it has been.

But we all know how reliable upper air forecasts are...

as an interested observer here in SFLA, am I correct to interpret your analysis that you believe the 00z GFS track (which brought Erika in the general direction of SFLA) makes more sense than a recurve or westward track into the Carribean?

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection keeps on shrinking:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, we will get into mid-september next week, and still not much going on at all in the tropics. Just one of those years I guess....

Thanks to El Nino,even if is not strong.

The good news in all of this is, look at how much the USA might be saving in $$$$$ if we can go through the rest of the season without any landfalling hurricanes...I know There is still plenty of time left, but so far so good...

Even though there's still plenty of time left, between shear and SAL now showing any signs of subsiding, I don't see the season getting anymore active than it's already been.... I'm sure though we will be very grateful of a season like this, because I'm sure there are many more extremely active seasons ahead of us...