ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Shewtinstar]

Does anyone know how to play taps?

[Dean4Storms]

Then the GFS runs it right into a building ridge right out east of the Carolina's!

Next run the GFS will have it in Mexico! LOL

[storms NC]

I'm not yet convinced that this system is going to completely die over the Islands. A good bit of energy with this and lots of warm water to the north of the islands, if she gets in a fairly good environment it could very well take off!

I think so too Dean. She held on before in shear so why can't she do it again?. And there is still a LLC. It is not a open wave yet. and I don't think she will be. Now she could very well go down to a TD for a day. But once she gets pass the Islands she well refire again. So I'll came back Friday evening or Sat to see how she is doing. Cause she is not like danny she likes her clothes on not off. But that is a man for ya they don't like clothes and Women do.

[Evil Jeremy]

Does anyone know how to play taps?

Uh, what are "taps"?

[sandyb]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

why is the gfdl still showing this?

[sandyb]

why are they flying again if there is nothing there?

[Evil Jeremy]

why are they flying again if there is nothing there?

To see if there is anything there.

[sandyb]

so there could still be something there?

[Evil Jeremy]

so there could still be something there?

Maybe, maybe not. When your dealing with the tropics, there is always a chance.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Dean4Storms"]Then the GFS runs it right into a building ridge right out east of the Carolina's!

Next run the GFS will have it in Mexico! LOL[/quote]




That's why the re-curve scenario is not plausible...HP is progged to be building back in and there will be no Danny or Bill type tracks in the near term

[Air Force Met]

Does anyone know how to play taps?

Uh, what are "taps"?

Oh man...you're young...aren't you.

TAPS is what's played at funerals of fallen service members...cops....etc.

Usually played on a trumpet. Google it or youtube...

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 031716
AF304 0506A ERIKA HDOB 06 20090903
170700 1748N 06419W 9569 00505 0134 +222 +097 100019 020 025 002 00
170730 1747N 06418W 9746 00317 0107 +236 +101 100018 018 028 000 00
170800 1746N 06417W 9768 00293 0103 +240 +107 097019 019 027 000 00
170830 1745N 06416W 9763 00298 0102 +239 +113 098019 019 025 000 00
170900 1744N 06415W 9761 00301 0102 +238 +118 098018 018 024 000 03
170930 1743N 06414W 9764 00297 0102 +237 +122 097018 018 025 000 00
171000 1742N 06413W 9761 00300 0101 +236 +125 098017 017 024 000 03
171030 1740N 06412W 9762 00297 0101 +236 +127 095017 018 025 000 00
171100 1739N 06411W 9762 00298 0101 +238 +127 098018 018 025 000 00
171130 1738N 06410W 9762 00298 0101 +235 +128 098018 018 025 000 00
171200 1737N 06409W 9758 00301 0101 +235 +127 098016 017 022 000 00
171230 1736N 06408W 9765 00296 0102 +235 +127 099016 017 022 000 00
171300 1735N 06406W 9760 00300 0100 +236 +126 100016 016 022 000 03
171330 1734N 06405W 9766 00293 0099 +237 +126 106017 017 999 999 03
171400 1733N 06404W 9761 00297 0098 +235 +126 104016 017 999 999 03
171430 1732N 06403W 9766 00293 0098 +235 +125 106016 017 999 999 03
171500 1731N 06403W 9757 00298 0097 +235 +125 105016 017 999 999 03
171530 1730N 06403W 9764 00293 0098 +235 +124 102016 017 999 999 03
171600 1728N 06403W 9764 00293 0098 +235 +124 105015 015 999 999 03
171630 1727N 06403W 9761 00297 0099 +235 +123 105014 014 999 999 03

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 031726
AF304 0506A ERIKA HDOB 07 20090903
171700 1725N 06403W 9761 00296 0098 +235 +122 106014 014 022 000 03
171730 1723N 06403W 9766 00292 0098 +235 +121 106014 014 017 001 03
171800 1722N 06404W 9760 00297 0097 +236 +121 100014 014 017 000 00
171830 1720N 06404W 9764 00292 0096 +238 +120 102012 013 019 000 00
171900 1719N 06405W 9763 00292 0096 +237 +120 107012 012 018 000 00
171930 1717N 06405W 9764 00291 0095 +239 +120 107012 013 019 000 00
172000 1716N 06406W 9762 00293 0095 +239 +120 109012 012 018 000 00
172030 1714N 06406W 9764 00292 0095 +239 +120 113012 013 019 000 00
172100 1713N 06406W 9761 00293 0095 +236 +120 124012 013 019 000 00
172130 1712N 06407W 9761 00292 0094 +237 +119 121013 014 019 000 03
172200 1710N 06408W 9762 00291 0094 +235 +119 121014 014 020 000 00
172230 1709N 06409W 9762 00291 0094 +235 +119 119014 015 019 000 00
172300 1708N 06410W 9763 00291 0094 +235 +118 123015 015 022 000 00
172330 1706N 06410W 9761 00291 0093 +235 +118 124015 015 021 000 00
172400 1705N 06411W 9763 00290 0093 +235 +118 119016 016 022 000 00
172430 1704N 06412W 9764 00287 0092 +235 +117 123016 017 022 000 00
172500 1703N 06413W 9761 00291 0092 +236 +116 124016 017 021 000 00
172530 1701N 06414W 9769 00283 0090 +239 +116 129018 019 021 000 00
172600 1700N 06415W 9756 00293 0090 +235 +116 121015 016 021 000 00
172630 1659N 06416W 9766 00285 0090 +236 +115 115017 017 021 002 00

[vbhoutex]

I'm not yet convinced that this system is going to completely die over the Islands. A good bit of energy with this and lots of warm water to the north of the islands, if she gets in a fairly good environment it could very well take off!

I think so too Dean. She held on before in shear so why can't she do it again?. And there is still a LLC. It is not a open wave yet. and I don't think she will be. Now she could very well go down to a TD for a day. But once she gets pass the Islands she well refire again. So I'll came back Friday evening or Sat to see how she is doing. Cause she is not like danny she likes her clothes on not off. But that is a man for ya they don't like clothes and Women do.

Imo, Erika might survive her trip across the N. Caribbean and PR and Hispaniola, but she will be even more weakened than she is at this point. She never has had a good structure to pull together although she looked pretty good a few times. I agree that there is a lot of energy still there and IF she does survive she might become a stronger TC(meaning possibly recognizeable TS) in the Bahamas, but the progged synoptic pattern at the time this could happen should sweep her out to sea. JMHO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

HenkL, good to see you.

[Bocadude85]

Convection keeps on shrinking:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Yea she is looking very ragged

[HURAKAN]

RECON is investigating now this vortex, eddy, whatever you want to call it. But like wxman57 indicated, there's no inflow into this system, so it can't be the LLC.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 031736
AF304 0506A ERIKA HDOB 08 20090903
172700 1658N 06417W 9761 00289 0090 +235 +115 117018 018 024 000 00
172730 1656N 06418W 9764 00286 0089 +235 +114 121018 019 021 000 00
172800 1655N 06419W 9761 00287 0088 +237 +114 122020 021 023 000 00
172830 1654N 06420W 9762 00286 0087 +239 +114 124020 021 025 000 00
172900 1653N 06421W 9762 00285 0085 +245 +115 125019 021 024 000 00
172930 1651N 06422W 9765 00283 0086 +242 +116 127018 018 023 000 00
173000 1650N 06423W 9761 00285 0086 +236 +117 125018 018 023 000 00
173030 1649N 06424W 9763 00284 0086 +236 +117 125017 017 022 000 00
173100 1648N 06425W 9764 00283 0086 +232 +117 120019 020 021 000 00
173130 1646N 06426W 9761 00284 0085 +231 +115 120018 018 020 001 00
173200 1645N 06427W 9765 00281 0085 +235 +112 119018 018 022 000 00
173230 1644N 06428W 9761 00284 0085 +233 +110 123019 019 023 000 00
173300 1643N 06429W 9762 00283 0085 +230 +109 126019 019 022 000 00
173330 1641N 06430W 9762 00283 0085 +226 +109 128019 020 020 002 00
173400 1640N 06431W 9763 00283 0084 +223 +107 133018 019 023 000 00
173430 1639N 06432W 9761 00284 0083 +232 +104 139011 013 019 001 00
173500 1638N 06433W 9762 00281 0082 +238 +102 142007 008 015 001 00
173530 1636N 06434W 9764 00280 0083 +240 +103 155006 006 012 000 03
173600 1635N 06435W 9760 00284 0082 +240 +105 177005 006 016 000 00
173630 1635N 06436W 9769 00275 0080 +240 +108 177003 004 008 001 03

[Aric Dunn]

is pressure really 1008 ... lol in that little swirl . ..

[HURAKAN]