ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Aric Dunn]

is this seriously about to stall again and fire more convection near that swirl.. lol

DIE ALREADY>> !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

models still are being dumb and offer no help since its moving so slowly and reforming so much that it has missed the first trough then the rebuilding of the ridge and now probably going to miss the second trough. If this re strengthens and magically survives im going to write a long paper about it.. geez..

[OuterBanker]

I'm not dead yet! Come see me with my new reformed center! I might just suprise you.

See you in the Bahamas

[cycloneye]

going to write a long paper about it

This system has to be studied by scientists to see all the factors that caused this to act in the way it did since emerging Africa.

[Shewtinstar]

going to write a long paper about it

This system has to be studied by scientists to see all the factors that caused this to act in the way it did since emerging Africa.

It's a woman. That explains it all. And I can say that because I am woman too.

[Aric Dunn]

going to write a long paper about it

This system has to be studied by scientists to see all the factors that caused this to act in the way it did since emerging Africa.

and Im one of them its actually very intriguing lots of physics involved for me hence my paper idea.


on a side note for those that know the importance of this.. Scientist Found MAGNETIC MONOPOLES !!
that is going to change a lot of text books and physics in general ..

[SapphireSea]

Lol.

I think it's basic thunderstorm activity with shear prolonging the convection similar to how shear sustains a line of super cells, this is creating a false sense of persistence of storms that develop. I understand the dynamics are different over water in the tropics, but this is what I believe is happening with this. The instability of the wave/trough is causing the convection to fire up, but not organize because of the shear, but persists BECAUSE of the shear too.

As its been said UL winds and shear are not very predictable, so in a low shear area, this CAN regenerate. But for now its EXPECTED to die via land interaction.

[Aric Dunn]

going to write a long paper about it

This system has to be studied by scientists to see all the factors that caused this to act in the way it did since emerging Africa.

It's a woman. That explains it all. And I can say that because I am woman too.

haha.. nevermind no study needed

geez women always causing problems

[Dean4Storms]

Maybe it is the Bermuda Triangle, the vortex sucking in boats and planes is now working its magic on the GFS when it runs a storm inside the triangle.

[Derek Ortt]

Then the GFS runs it right into a building ridge right out east of the Carolina's!

We saw that several times in 2004 / 2005.

This time, GFS has a weakness to the NE and the storm follows that track

[Dean4Storms]

My first bone to pick with the NHC. I think it is a mistake not to mention the possibility that a 2nd LLC could form in the Mid-level Circulation and Convection to the east of the current LLC. If this convection re-fires as it looks to be doing so in the latest visible and maintains overnight and the first LLC either dissipates or moves far enough to the west that it becomes a non player it is always a possibility that new LLC could form.

[Stormcenter]

There have been several other tropical systems (Betsy,Juan,Elena and others) that have done crazier things that were not predicted by any models or anyone then Erika. Erika in my opinion never had a bright (for significant development) future to begin with. Some of the models (GFS...I think)were losing it around the Bahamas from the get go and no one could understand why. Well now we know why. Again this is all just my opinion.

going to write a long paper about it

This system has to be studied by scientists to see all the factors that caused this to act in the way it did since emerging Africa.

[Shewtinstar]

haha.. nevermind no study needed

geez women always causing problems


At least she didn't run around naked like Danny did. Typical male!

[OuterBanker]

I'm certainly no expert but to me the racing llc has dissipated and the mlc north of the islands has become more pronounced. It looks like inflow is becoming more symmetrical with deepening convection. Whether or not it gets to the surface is the question. Nothing this year makes sense and anything is possible.

[Stormcenter]

IMO that is still not going change what's ahead for Erika. She could reform anywhere
but the shear is still not going away per the NHC. She would still have to contend with it (shear).

My first bone to pick with the NHC. I think it is a mistake not to mention the possibility that a 2nd LLC could form in the Mid-level Circulation and Convection to the east of the current LLC. If this convection re-fires as it looks to be doing so in the latest visible and maintains overnight and the first LLC either dissipates or moves far enough to the west that it becomes a non player it is always a possibility that new LLC could form.

[Shewtinstar]

I'm really surprised that nothing popped in the GOM this year.

[BigA]

Is there any degree of plausibility to these models? I don´t think I have ever seen so many models predict regeneration and deepening from a cyclone that looked to be dying. Do the models predict shear to decrease, or are they simply failing to understand that there is a great deal of shear?

[Aric Dunn]

I'm really surprised that nothing popped in the GOM this year.

hehe.. the year is nowhere near over..

[capepoint]

i just read jb and i did not read that where did you get that info from jb?

He's been saying that all week. Today's comments included words like "big factor for the East Coast", "I think the center is reforming and means business near Guadeloupe", etc. Just confirming his forecast of a big hurricane in the Bahamas by late this holiday weekend.

he was on that train yesterday and big factor to me sounds like he is still on it

JB has been on the big east coast storm train forever....guess if you forcast something long enough..maybe it will happen one day and prove you right...at least we cant say he didnt warn us......for years and years lol

[SapphireSea]

Shear is very rampant this year. Gulf has been blasted by jet-like shear for the past few weeks. Ana was discombobulated by a ULL, Bill had it good till he got caught by the trough and got hit with the SW shear, Claudette was in the GOM and developed when the conditions were good in the EGOM. Danny was a mess as it was, being caught by another trough/front. And Erika became a victim of strong WATL/ECARIB Shear that is often present in El Nino years. (Although the shear Erika encountered was more MidLvl). Aside from the west carrib, and the east Atlantic there aren't many areas that are favorable for a significant TC.

[Shewtinstar]

I'm really surprised that nothing popped in the GOM this year.

hehe.. the year is nowhere near over..

So there is still hope? Ya, I know, it's sick, but I love the hurricanes. Jacksonville is due.