ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[lostsole]

Without hurricanes to cool the oceans, we would have no coral reefs, hurricanes are a way for balancing in mother nature as everything seeks equilibrium. For every action, there is an opposite and equal reaction kinda thing.

[gatorcane]

To be honest I think the carib will be closed for bizness the rest of the season. We might see a cape storm or 2, but its going to have to be home brew IMO the rest of the year.

Yeah I started to think the same thing this week. Long-range GFS shows a CV storm or two developing in the Far East Atlantic but recurve in the Central Atlantic not really amounting to much. The ECMWF and GFS long-range really show about NADA through mid September. When I analyze the 500MB flow from both models, they continue to shove these gigantic troughs off the East Coast of the US creating a large belt of mid-level SW winds all the way down the Eastern seaboard of the US and then out into the Western Atlantic where you would normally expect some kind of Bermuda High to at least build and persist longer than about 2 or 3 days that we have seen all summer long for the past 3+ months.

El nino should also help shutdown October as well despite it being an historically active month especially for Florida. I'm thinking the season already feels like it is winding down. Bring on winter is right!

[kat61]

so do you think it's kind of like maintaining homostasis for the planet?

[kat61]

They're big air conditioners.

basically they suck the heat off the oceans and spread that concentration up up and up into the atmosphere to cool off.

is it the concentration of water or heat that needs to be redistributed?

[lrak]

They're big air conditioners.

basically they suck the heat off the oceans and spread that concentration up up and up into the atmosphere to cool off.

is it the concentration of water or heat that needs to be redistributed?

I surf and do financial work for a living, there are much more informed minds than mine to give you answers. My theory is a real simple way to look at it. Good luck

[kat61]

Can anyone explain the 'purpose' of a hurricane and how it assists the planet to sustain itself?
I'm a newbie and trying to understand the significance of the science. Or tell me where to ask these questions because I know it's off the topic.

That's a good question and nobody really knows what role hurricanes have in Earth's climate. Why there are a certain number of them every year around the world (about 90)? Why not 900? They don't really transport much heat poleward like storms in the mid-latitudes do. One possibility is that they do affect the ocean heat transport by mixing warmer water downwards (bringing cooler water upwards), but that's a bit controversial in the science community. You've touched on a subject that has befuddled hurricane researchers for a long long time.

So do you think it's about the movement of water?

[cycloneye]

Even if Erika doesnt exist officially,still some bands of rain are moving thru Puerto Rico.

[btangy]

Can anyone explain the 'purpose' of a hurricane and how it assists the planet to sustain itself?
I'm a newbie and trying to understand the significance of the science. Or tell me where to ask these questions because I know it's off the topic.

That's a good question and nobody really knows what role hurricanes have in Earth's climate. Why there are a certain number of them every year around the world (about 90)? Why not 900? They don't really transport much heat poleward like storms in the mid-latitudes do. One possibility is that they do affect the ocean heat transport by mixing warmer water downwards (bringing cooler water upwards), but that's a bit controversial in the science community. You've touched on a subject that has befuddled hurricane researchers for a long long time.

So do you think it's about the movement of water?

No, not with the movement of water. The short answer is I don't know and anybody who tells you they know is thinking about it too simplistically. Hurricanes, despite their ferocity, are blips in how much energy the Earth transports from the tropics to the poles or radiates to space. It's not clear the Earth's climate would be any different without hurricanes.

[SapphireSea]

I don't think they have much purpose IMO. In the end it's the consequence of having a decently thick atmosphere. Space is far from a perfect vacuume/nothingness. You have magnetic forces (gravity), solar winds, and other radiation from space, and on earth the atmosphere is a liquid encapsulated by space, you will have distortions, just like a water-balloon (in this case the atmosphere is made out of air not water, I say water because atmosphere is fluid); The land and sea is simply the core of the water-balloon, which also creates internal forces acting out towards space, and external forces from space acting on us.

Again, its all a consequence. If we destroy a storm, you won't know what kind of reverberation it will cause somewhere else if we even were capable to. I can imagine it would be equally as catastrophic as the force used to destroy the storm if it follows the laws of energy. So to destroy a Cat 1 you would need a force equal to a cat 5, which then would create an atmospheric shockwave creating a strong pattern change that would probobly do the same damage as a cat 5 worldwide.

Although this is of course nearing the realm of psuedoscience, I cannot prove any of what happens in the 2nd paragraph.

[Derek Ortt]

TCs do not only transport heat, they also transport momentum.

They also affect the mid latitude storm track once one goes ET. A significant TC going ET adds energy to the mid latitudes, though I am not 100% sure of the precise impact

[Jevo]

I don't think they have much purpose IMO. In the end it's the consequence of having a decently thick atmosphere. Space is far from a perfect vacuume/nothingness. You have magnetic forces (gravity), solar winds, and other radiation from space, and on earth the atmosphere is a liquid encapsulated by space, you will have distortions, just like a water-balloon (in this case the atmosphere is made out of air not water, I say water because atmosphere is fluid); The land and sea is simply the core of the water-balloon, which also creates internal forces acting out towards space, and external forces from space acting on us.

Again, its all a consequence. If we destroy a storm, you won't know what kind of reverberation it will cause somewhere else if we even were capable to. I can imagine it would be equally as catastrophic as the force used to destroy the storm if it follows the laws of energy. So to destroy a Cat 1 you would need a force equal to a cat 5, which then would create an atmospheric shockwave creating a strong pattern change that would probobly do the same damage as a cat 5 worldwide.

Although this is of course nearing the realm of psuedoscience, I cannot prove any of what happens in the 2nd paragraph.

Well we kinda do...... from Dr Landsea

Hurricanes can be thought of, to a first approximation, as a heat engine; obtaining its heat input from the warm, humid air over the tropical ocean, and releasing this heat through the condensation of water vapor into water droplets in deep thunderstorms of the eyewall and rainbands, then giving off a cold exhaust in the upper levels of the troposphere (~12 km/8 mi up).

One can look at the energetics of a hurricane in two ways:

1. the total amount of energy released by the condensation of water droplets or ...
2. the amount of kinetic energy generated to maintain the strong swirling winds of the hurricane (Emanuel 1999).

It turns out that the vast majority of the heat released in the condensation process is used to cause rising motions in the thunderstorms and only a small portion drives the storm's horizontal winds.

* Method 1) - Total energy released through cloud/rain formation:

An average hurricane produces 1.5 cm/day (0.6 inches/day) of rain inside a circle of radius 665 km (360 n.mi) (Gray 1981). (More rain falls in the inner portion of hurricane around the eyewall, less in the outer rainbands.) Converting this to a volume of rain gives 2.1 x 1016 cm3/day. A cubic cm of rain weighs 1 gm. Using the latent heat of condensation, this amount of rain produced gives
5.2 x 1019 Joules/day or
6.0 x 1014 Watts.

This is equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity - an incredible amount of energy produced!

* Method 2) - Total kinetic energy (wind energy) generated:

For a mature hurricane, the amount of kinetic energy generated is equal to that being dissipated due to friction. The dissipation rate per unit area is air density times the drag coefficient times the windspeed cubed (See Emanuel 1999 for details). One could either integrate a typical wind profile over a range of radii from the hurricane's center to the outer radius encompassing the storm, or assume an average windspeed for the inner core of the hurricane. Doing the latter and using 40 m/s (90 mph) winds on a scale of radius 60 km (40 n.mi.), one gets a wind dissipation rate (wind generation rate) of
1.3 x 1017 Joules/day or
1.5 x 1012Watts.

This is equivalent to about half the world-wide electrical generating capacity - also an amazing amount of energy being produced!

Either method is an enormous amount energy being generated by hurricanes. However, one can see that the amount of energy released in a hurricane (by creating clouds/rain) that actually goes to maintaining the hurricane's spiraling winds is a huge ratio of 400 to 1.

[kat61]

I think, you all are so brilliant you should get together and do a research proposal for a study.
energy,heat,water,tropics,poles,space!

[Hurricaneman]

the GFS is still harping on redevelopment of a tropical storm so I wouldnt give up on it just yet

[Sanibel]

Maintaining weak remnant:

[Sanibel]

Nothing to write home about but NHC tracks it above Antilles still.

[kat61]

I don't think they have much purpose IMO. In the end it's the consequence of having a decently thick atmosphere. Space is far from a perfect vacuume/nothingness. You have magnetic forces (gravity), solar winds, and other radiation from space, and on earth the atmosphere is a liquid encapsulated by space, you will have distortions, just like a water-balloon (in this case the atmosphere is made out of air not water, I say water because atmosphere is fluid); The land and sea is simply the core of the water-balloon, which also creates internal forces acting out towards space, and external forces from space acting on us.

Again, its all a consequence. If we destroy a storm, you won't know what kind of reverberation it will cause somewhere else if we even were capable to. I can imagine it would be equally as catastrophic as the force used to destroy the storm if it follows the laws of energy. So to destroy a Cat 1 you would need a force equal to a cat 5, which then would create an atmospheric shockwave creating a strong pattern change that would probobly do the same damage as a cat 5 worldwide.

Although this is of course nearing the realm of psuedoscience, I cannot prove any of what happens in the 2nd paragraph.

Well we kinda do...... from Dr Landsea

Hurricanes can be thought of, to a first approximation, as a heat engine; obtaining its heat input from the warm, humid air over the tropical ocean, and releasing this heat through the condensation of water vapor into water droplets in deep thunderstorms of the eyewall and rainbands, then giving off a cold exhaust in the upper levels of the troposphere (~12 km/8 mi up).

One can look at the energetics of a hurricane in two ways:

1. the total amount of energy released by the condensation of water droplets or ...
2. the amount of kinetic energy generated to maintain the strong swirling winds of the hurricane (Emanuel 1999).

It turns out that the vast majority of the heat released in the condensation process is used to cause rising motions in the thunderstorms and only a small portion drives the storm's horizontal winds.

* Method 1) - Total energy released through cloud/rain formation:

An average hurricane produces 1.5 cm/day (0.6 inches/day) of rain inside a circle of radius 665 km (360 n.mi) (Gray 1981). (More rain falls in the inner portion of hurricane around the eyewall, less in the outer rainbands.) Converting this to a volume of rain gives 2.1 x 1016 cm3/day. A cubic cm of rain weighs 1 gm. Using the latent heat of condensation, this amount of rain produced gives
5.2 x 1019 Joules/day or
6.0 x 1014 Watts.

This is equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity - an incredible amount of energy produced!

* Method 2) - Total kinetic energy (wind energy) generated:

For a mature hurricane, the amount of kinetic energy generated is equal to that being dissipated due to friction. The dissipation rate per unit area is air density times the drag coefficient times the windspeed cubed (See Emanuel 1999 for details). One could either integrate a typical wind profile over a range of radii from the hurricane's center to the outer radius encompassing the storm, or assume an average windspeed for the inner core of the hurricane. Doing the latter and using 40 m/s (90 mph) winds on a scale of radius 60 km (40 n.mi.), one gets a wind dissipation rate (wind generation rate) of
1.3 x 1017 Joules/day or
1.5 x 1012Watts.

This is equivalent to about half the world-wide electrical generating capacity - also an amazing amount of energy being produced!

Either method is an enormous amount energy being generated by hurricanes. However, one can see that the amount of energy released in a hurricane (by creating clouds/rain) that actually goes to maintaining the hurricane's spiraling winds is a huge ratio of 400 to 1.

tried to google but there are several from 1999, can you be bit more specific on which article? thanks so much!

[Sanibel]

Now a curve straight north with GFDL making it 106 knots.

[kat61]

TCs do not only transport heat, they also transport momentum.

They also affect the mid latitude storm track once one goes ET. A significant TC going ET adds energy to the mid latitudes, though I am not 100% sure of the precise impact

what constitutes a TC going ET. I just can't grasp that ? is it the temps? the location? yhe conditons ofn e envionment
i'm so scientifically challenged.....

[deltadog03]

I dunno if I buy the fast movement north that the GFS is trying to show with ex-Erika

[Sanibel]

Real action on Puerto Rican long range radar! I think it is coming together:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes