ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[jlauderdal]

We're getting another lashing with the fringes, hard rain, barely any wind, not hearing thunder at this point, but usually it's lightening up now and it's still pitch dark

i wont fill the board up with SJU images but there is an intensifying band coming in from the NE, looking much healthier than the image I posted awhile ago

[Nimbus]

The morning convective burst is a little further northwest. If this pattern continues will the remnants ever move into an environment north of the islands where there will be less shear?

[knotimpaired]

To follow rainfall totals here at our house in Vieques go to our website http://www.playacofi.com/weather. It automatically updates every 15 minutes.

[cycloneye]

I went to sleep after looking at almost nothing,and I woke up to this.Never say never in the tropics.We have our tent thread at Weather Attic forum,where observations can be posted there.

[Evil Jeremy]

Once again, ex-Erika strengthened overnight, but I expect the shear to overtake her during the day again, as that is what has been happening this past week. Still though, she is getting to be very annoying at this point.

[storms NC]

The morning convective burst is a little further northwest. If this pattern continues will the remnants ever move into an environment north of the islands where there will be less shear?

I saw that and said Hummm I wonder what she will do now.

They might have to pick her back up. She has refired in the last hour or so. and you can see a new LLC I think to the NE or is that just nothing?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2009


MON-THU...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL WAVE FROM "ERIKA" FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE PENINSULA FROM AROUND THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH THE LATEST 00Z GFS RUNS RE-STRENGTHENS ERIKA AND MOVES IT
NORTH PARALLEL TO FLORIDA WHEN IT REACHES THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...
CONTINUING NORTHWARD OFF OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.

AT PRESENT IT APPEARS OUR ONSHORE FLOW MAY VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
TOWARDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.
WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHERE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY GO. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF DAYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD
BE FAIRLY WET IF T-WAVE MOVES INTO AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE.



SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK

[BensonTCwatcher]

stupid zombie storms this year. Erika, didn't you hear Dr. McCoy pronounce you last night??

[BensonTCwatcher]

I don't see any inflow on west side, so I doubt this is closed off, but it sure looks like it could close off soon if it's not. It does look like a developing TD. There is convergence at the lower levels and divergence aloft. Shear on the decrease N and NW of the system. If pressures keep falling, we might see this survive long enough to get into a better environment to the NW.

[CourierPR]

It does look like it's trying to close off on radar. Erika is like the soap opera characters who die but suddenly return months later.

[jlauderdal]

luis should be getting some activity real soon

[gatorcane]

Convection still is maintaining. All it needs to do now is get north of the islands and we can see it redevelop as I explained last night. If it does develop, it would likely get pulled northward pretty quickly and probably out to to sea in a recurve scenario.

BTW - you know the Bermuda high is weak when it is a low-level entity moving only west at 6mph....man where is the ridging this year?

[HURAKAN]

121
ABNT20 KNHC 041146
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ARE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WHILE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE
FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[Gustywind]

Is she a warrior...? Erika does not want to give up and stays once again in vincinity of the islands the Lesser Antilles

Cycloneye i advice to keep a close on this feature, be safe, Msbee too.

[hurricanetrack]

No worries, you can easily see strong upper level winds coming out of South America towards this region. We are all being tortured, I know, by this system but at least the GFDL and HWRF models are steadily coming down in their intensity predictions and soon, they will not see Erika at all- finally putting us all out of our collective miserys. Unless....

[Shewtinstar]

And the saga continues.....................

[Shewtinstar]

I am a bit confused. I was always under the impression that storms were supposed to be fueled by the heating of the sun and warm water. Erika seems to have it backwards. She dies during the day and fires during the cooler nights. What am I missing?

[wxman57]

I am a bit confused. I was always under the impression that storms were supposed to be fueled by the heating of the sun and warm water. Erika seems to have it backwards. She dies during the day and fires during the cooler nights. What am I missing?

There is no heating from the sun over the oceans, as the ocean surface responds too slowly to the sun on a day to day basis (unlike the land which heats up significantly and enhances storms during the day). Temperatures over the oceans remain about the same from day to night. So over the ocean, there is a thunderstorm maximum that occurs at night (won't get into the reasons here). That's why you'll hear some here speak of a "diurnal max", implying that a disturbance's thunderstorm activity typically increases at night.

Erika's remnants reflect the residual vorticity (spin energy) which remained after the surface center died. This vorticity will continue to generate thunderstorms. However, the disturbance is moving into an environment that is increasingly hostile toward redevelopment (wind shear/dry air), so regeneration of a surface circulation is unlikely.

[Shewtinstar]

Thank you wxman57, that clears things up.

[Gustywind]

Another measurements concerning the amounts of water in Guadeloupe...just after the return in green alert

Given Meteo-France after 5PM (back to to green alert): here is the latest measurements in some locations in Guadeloupe

Le Moule experienced 120 millimeters, Ste-Anne too, while St-François get 100 millimeters (between 5PM to 11PM especially) and 165 mm at Désirade ... humm pretty juicy amounts in these areas of Guadeloupe .