Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

It's amazing. even though Erika is officially dead, she can still cause some real problems for PR and VI today.
I hope you guys don't get too much rain from her or it or whatever they are calling it now.
She definitely was a non event for us happily although I do wish we had gotten some more rain.
it's either feast or famine, it seems

Hi my friend, ok for these info and what's the weather like right now in your location Msbee?

[Gustywind]

From St Croix given the weather site of Stormcarib.com
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stcroix.shtml
Overcast sky
From: Sylvie Renaud <sandzill at yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2009 06:09:28 -0700 (PDT)

Hello everyone,

The weather radio had it right. Starting at midnight or just after midnight the thunder and light show began rolling in. Then 2 hours of steady rain with the light and sound show. No wind. But at 10-10:30pm we could see diffused lightning ( no thunder) to the south of the island past the airport going or drifiting to the south side of F'sted. The wind simply died from 6pm on last night. Poor full moon could barely shine through the clouds that were low, slow moving from the SE to SW.
We had morning showers, I mean good downpours. Absoultly no mention of flooding anywhere so far.
Erica just gave us much needed rain.

Later.

[msbee]

It's amazing. even though Erika is officially dead, she can still cause some real problems for PR and VI today.
I hope you guys don't get too much rain from her or it or whatever they are calling it now.
She definitely was a non event for us happily although I do wish we had gotten some more rain.
it's either feast or famine, it seems

Hi my friend, ok for these info and what's the weather like right now in your location Msbee?

Hi Gusty
it's overcast here with light rain

[Gustywind]

It's amazing. even though Erika is officially dead, she can still cause some real problems for PR and VI today.
I hope you guys don't get too much rain from her or it or whatever they are calling it now.
She definitely was a non event for us happily although I do wish we had gotten some more rain.
it's either feast or famine, it seems

Hi my friend, ok for these info and what's the weather like right now in your location Msbee?

Hi Gusty
it's overcast here with light rain

Ok tkanks Msbee overcast here too without rain winds...

[msbee]

Right now we have a heavy rain storm
This is so funny. Yesterday when Erika was Erika , we had very little rain. Now today, when there is no Erika, we get the rain.
go figure!

[cycloneye]

I think is the tail of what was Erika.Be safe there and report later how much ran has fallen there today.

[Gustywind]

I think is the tail of what was Erika.Be safe there and report later how much ran has fallen there today.

How about you? what's the weather like in PR Luis?

[cycloneye]

Where I am little rain so far,but in other parts of the island much more has fallen.Lets see as the day goes on how the weather behaves here.

[Gustywind]

Where I am little rain so far,but in other parts of the island much more has fallen.Lets see as the day goes on how the weather behaves here.

Absolutely you're right, keep us informed as usual and as possible.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1159 AM AST FRI SEP 4 2009

PRC037-049-053-089-103-119-147-042000-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0233.000000T0000Z-090904T2000Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-FAJARDO PR-CULEBRA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
VIEQUES PR-
1159 AM AST FRI SEP 4 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...FAJARDO...CULEBRA...RIO GRANDE AND
VIEQUES

* UNTIL 400 PM AST

* AT 1154 AM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...
AFFECTING THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. RAIN
GAGES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER
PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH 400 PM. IN ADDITION...
MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 800
PM AST SATURDAY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1821 6531 1809 6524 1806 6534 1819 6576
1843 6590 1840 6552 1829 6557 1819 6545
1821 6531 1831 6543 1839 6539 1837 6521
1827 6522

$$

[Gustywind]

Waouw things are heating this season, seems that 95L is up! This pertubed area is located southwest of the southernmost of the the CV islands. Let's keep an eye to our east during the next couple of days in case of as usual...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST FRI SEP 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA...GENERALLY REMAINS LOCATED SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY LIFT WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LEFTOVER LOW TO MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND VORTICITY IS LIKELY TO HAVE ONE MORE CONVECTIVE
BURST TONIGHT AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY. SHIFT TEAM
CONSENSUS WAS THAT BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS...WOULD BE MAINLY FROM ST CROIX AND VIEQUES
INTO EAST AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THEN CONTINUING WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO CABO ROJO. THEREFORE...
GIVEN LIMITED HEAVY RAINFALL COVERAGE THUS FAR AND LIMITED
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WE OPTED TO TRIM BACK FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. ONCE WE FINALLY GET RID OF
THIS SYSTEM...SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED...BUT THEN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. THUS...
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY IN DIURNALLY AND NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED AREAS.

In San Juan it was a sunny day after all with only a shower early this morning

[Gustywind]

[size=200]95L IS UP![/size]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200909041723
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2009, DB, O, 2009090418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952009
AL, 95, 2009090318, , BEST, 0, 124N, 185W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2009090400, , BEST, 0, 127N, 201W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2009090406, , BEST, 0, 129N, 219W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2009090412, , BEST, 0, 132N, 235W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2009090418, , BEST, 0, 137N, 257W, 20, 1009, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

From NRL site:
20090904.1900.95LINVEST.20kts-1009mb-138N-259W.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[Gustywind]

What's the weather like in St Marteen Msbee? Given Meteo-France strong showers are coming and heading near your area...while themselves they back off the yellow alert to green alert ...
Be safe

[Gustywind]

Moderate showers in my location, winds are calm, it's grey, chilly and sad. Erika does not want to move away, or very slowly...thus does not want to give up!

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 042045 CCA
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 PM AST FRI SEP 4 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAINT CROIX UNTIL 8
PM AST SATURDAY EVENING...

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST CROIX AS WELL AS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH JUST UNDER ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN
ACCUMULATING AT THE CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT ON SAINT CROIX. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERIKA. THE WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ARE GENERATING A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY WEST
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...MAINLY ACROSS SAINT CROIX.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AS ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

SR

[Gustywind]

If Erika's remnants continues to diminish, another candidate near the west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde islands is looking for the poleposition...let's keep an eye on this during the next couple of days

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS ERIKA HAS DIMINISHED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN

[Gustywind]

Looking at Africa

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 26W S
OF 20N MOVING W AT 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 14N26W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CLOUD MASS
FROM 9N-21N BETWEEN 23W-31W. THE WAVE IS ALSO WITHIN A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 25W-28W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 27W-30W.
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.