Southwest Carribbean

[alienstorm]

Interesting developments maybe in the SW Carribbean, should move NW then N given steering flow.

Comments welcome

[AdamFirst]

I saw that too and wondered if it had any potential.

[N2FSU]

yeh I noticed that also

[clfenwi]

Discussion of the area in the afternoon TWD:

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED NEAR
14N70W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 15N W OF 76W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

[CourierPR]

That's a rather large complex of disturbed weather.

[Tropics Guy]

Any models try to develop this area?

TG

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

It needs to stay down near 10-12°N to avoid the TUTT...at 15°N and above, upper-level shear is about 40 kt and mid-level shear is about 20 kt, which would eat it to shreds.

If it can emerge in the EPAC, it has near-perfect conditions for development.

[Macrocane]

In the Caribbean it has no possibilities, but in the EPAC is another story. Remember that Jimena was in a similar position before entering into the EPAC, once it gets there it has better chances though I don't think that it will be that strong if it develops, I hope that we get some nice rain from it.

[Sanibel]

Looks like it's in the EPAC flow which is west in that part of the Caribbean. Shear visible on satellite.

This is the third or fourth disturbance to bloom down there. This could portend an October system that moves north instead of west.

[lrak]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MNPC.html

http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&sourc ... e&resnum=1

Gotta good looking shape and kinda low pressure, but the shear

[gatorcane]

No development expected.

[StormTracker]

It looked a lot better yesterday...

[Sanibel]

The twist has gone over land. I think the convection was mostly shear-induced.

[Sanibel]