Tropical Wave north of the Greater Antilles

[HURAKAN]

This is the system in front of the Antilles

[Blown Away]

The TPC keeps the low moving westward through 72 hours. Interested to see if a code yellow will be placed on this area.

Central Atlantic IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

TPC Forecasts:
24 Hours: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
48 Hours: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
72 Hours: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2009

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 18N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TPW IMAGERY
INDICATE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS BEING INJECTED INTO THE WAVE
JUST S OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 34W-36W.

Loosing 3 mb since yesterday....down to 1011 hpa Interrestiing thing to note and even monitor in my humble opinion. This year many waves was at high lattitude and never crossed so much north and afterwards heading near Guadeloupe or the Lesser Antilles and not always as fish. Let's keep an eye all these waves to our east as we're in the entering the peak of the hurricane activity.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2009
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1014
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N.

[HURAKAN]

Another look

[wxman57]

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/RECON/427-1.jpg

Another look

HURAKAN, I believe this is the correct disturbance being discussed on this thread. It's the one west of the disturbance near the Cape Verde Islands. Surrounded by dry air and relatively cool water, it has little chance of developing.

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN, I believe this is the correct disturbance being discussed on this thread. It's the one west of the disturbance near the Cape Verde Islands.

In the image, I'm talking about the system to th west. I know things are tough but there are not a lot of things to see out there!!!

[wxman57]

HURAKAN, I believe this is the correct disturbance being discussed on this thread. It's the one west of the disturbance near the Cape Verde Islands.

In the image, I'm talking about the system to th west. I know things are tough but there are not a lot of things to see out there!!!

I'm loving it! First Labor Day weekend off in 10 years. 4 days of bicycling for me.

[Hurricaneman]

this may become something soon, it has a low with it with dmax convection

[Aric Dunn]

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/RECON/427-1.jpg

Another look

HURAKAN, I believe this is the correct disturbance being discussed on this thread. It's the one west of the disturbance near the Cape Verde Islands. Surrounded by dry air and relatively cool water, it has little chance of developing.

wrong motion there ...
its been heading wsw to west .. and the ridge is buildingin all levels ..

west motion for the next 2 to 3 days.. development likely..

invest in the morning TD likely after that ..

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 05 2009

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. A 1012
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N39W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 14N. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SAHARAN DUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH
IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION TO A SMALL AREA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
39W-40W.

[Gustywind]

Sah aran dust to the west of the waves axis which is limiting deep convection to a small area... (see latest TWD, previous post).

[HURAKAN]

118
ABNT20 KNHC 051142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TOMORROW AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

[wxman57]

Nothing to worry about here. Neither of these east Atlantic waves is likely to develop. Enjoy a nice, quiet holiday weekend (in the U.S.).

[gatorcane]

wrong motion there ...
its been heading wsw to west .. and the ridge is buildingin all levels ..

west motion for the next 2 to 3 days.. development likely..

invest in the morning TD likely after that ..

Development not likely, not sure what shear charts you are looking at but west winds in the upper-level are screaming from the west throughout most of the path of this thing and. If it were to develop, it would likely recurve with weak ridging I continue to see across most of the Northern Central Atlantic.

Shear chart:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[BigA]

It's best chance is to do nothing for the next few days, then wait until it gets in the Bahamas area with more favorable upper level winds. No guarantee that it will exist in 4-5 days, though.

[Frank2]

Let's face it folks, aside from Bill which came along during the positive MJO and was a very impressive system from the start, per the long range forecasts, this will be a season similar to other El Nino seasons - perhaps one or two hurricanes but not much else...

That's the way it is, and considering how fragile (or damaged) the economy is, that's a good thing, for sure...

Can you image the terrible impact in human terms if the US endured another Andrew or Katrina at this point - talk about economic collapse...

Frank

[lonelymike]

Let's face it folks, aside from Bill which came along during the positive MJO and was a very impressive system from the start, per the long range forecasts, this will be a season similar to other El Nino seasons - perhaps one or two hurricanes but not much else...

That's the way it is, and considering how fragile (or damaged) the economy is, that's a good thing, for sure...

Can you image the terrible impact in human terms if the US endured another Andrew or Katrina at this point - talk about economic collapse...

Frank

Frank you're usually the voice of sanity in this forum. That last statement is utter nonsense. No disrespect intended

[Frank2]

Why - would you prefer another Andrew or Katrina at this point???

For various reasons this season is very limited in terms of tropical development - everyone from CSU to NOAA to TWC have acknowledged that from the start, so it's very likely that the season will end - soon, and it's for the best considering how fragile our economy has become over the past few years and it's current ability to handle a natural or man-made disaster, so there's nothing silly about being thankful when something like that doesn't happen, since it's for the best...

One thing I came to appreciate after my Andrew experience was a nice blue sky - now, I do enjoy a good noisy thunderstorm (and the convective season is much longer than hurricane season, so that means many more opportunities to hear a rumble of thunder), but weather that brings damage and human misery, that's another thing - though that doesn't mean that I no longer find tropical cyclones of interest, since I've found them to be one of the more amazing features in weather, ever since my encounter with Hurricane Donna, way back in 1960...

Frank

[CourierPR]

The last time I looked, this thread was about the wave in the central Atlantic. Naycasters, please start your own thread to talk about the supposed end to the season.