ATL : INVEST 95L

[lonelymike]

It's dying a painful death. Unless dmax can ramp things up this one's a goner.

Are you seeing the same storm I'm seeing? I know the road its difficult but it doesn't seem to be dying at the moment.

It's 4am at the bar and the fat chick with two teeth is the only game in town.....

Sad at this time of year the only thing to watch is a pathetic wave having the moisture sucked out like a vampire....actually great news for the US coast.

[HURAKAN]

yes lonelymike, the only game in town

[Hurricaneman]

Now we'll watch the models come west with this one probably.

Why do you say that?

b/c the system won't probably intensity much over the next few days and weak systems tend to move west.

if it stays weak, it will force the the models west

[Hurricaneman]

Now we'll watch the models come west with this one probably.

Why do you say that?

b/c the system won't probably intensity much over the next few days and weak systems tend to move west.

if it stays weak, it will force the the models west

[lrak]

What is that blob in front of 95L? Looks like it has its own living space.

[Aric Dunn]

What is that blob in front of 95L? Looks like it has its own living space.

geez.. i decided to take a little break..

95 will be a TD by sunday

the wave in front of it probably will be a depression as well sunday maybe sooner..
and ex-erika is starting to interest me again .. which sux..lol

busy busy busy next few days...

[Evil Jeremy]

What is that blob in front of 95L? Looks like it has its own living space.

That area was a code yellow a couple days ago but the NHC gave up on it after the convection died.

[Aric Dunn]

What is that blob in front of 95L? Looks like it has its own living space.

[img]

That area was a code yellow a couple days ago but the NHC gave up on it after the convection died.

which was justified .. but the tropics dont follow shaded areas of interest..

and the circ has clearly dropped wsw over the last 3 days and tightened up and has recently today produced organized convection...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 05 2009

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 29W S OF 20N
MOVING W AT 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 15N28W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N. THE
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 30W-33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
28W-31W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 29W S OF 20N
MOVING W AT 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 15N28W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N. THE
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 30W-33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
28W-31W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.
$$
WALTON

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 6z:

AL, 95, 2009090506, , BEST, 0, 151N, 292W, 25, 1008

[otowntiger]

Best Track 6z:

AL, 95, 2009090506, , BEST, 0, 151N, 292W, 25, 1008

Aren't the models calling for this one to be a fish? It seems positioned and motioning like that. Am I wrong?

[Gustywind]

[HURAKAN]

118
ABNT20 KNHC 051142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TOMORROW AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

In other words,kaput.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: In other words,kaput.

Here is the kaput.

[Gustywind]

Now we'll watch the models come west with this one probably.

Why do you say that?

b/c the system won't probably intensity much over the next few days and weak systems tend to move west.

Absolutely... and in my humble opinion we noticed that with Erika, Ana...and then concerning the islands or pass very closer to them to put some watches, warnings. Numerous invests were predicted to pass pretty north, but they stayed pretty south heading towards the islands!
For the moment with my untrained eyes of amateur, Invests are very weak this season (for the moment?shoud it verifies first )that they have troubles to pass the 20N so i won't be surprised to see another invests racing straight west or even wsw churning near the islands or dying even before. Let's see if this trend continues...
Gustywind

[dekeoy]

Well, maybe I did see something after all. I posted this on another thread a little while ago.

[img=http://img114.imageshack.us/img114/8994/atlanticloopx.th.jpg]

[wxman57]

Well, maybe I did see something after all. I posted this on another thread a little while ago.

[img=http://img114.imageshack.us/img114/8994/atlanticloopx.th.jpg]

That's what's left of another large wave that rolled off the coast of Africa about 3 days before 95L. It looked impressive, too, 4-5 days ago. Now it's a shell of its former self, drifting WNW in a dry desert airmass. Look at the dry (blue) air out ahead of it on the MIMIC TPW imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html