ATL : INVEST 95L

[HURAKAN]

BEST Track 12z

AL, 95, 2009090512, , BEST, 0, 159N, 299W, 25, 1008

[HURAKAN]

05/1145 UTC 15.3N 30.7W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

SHIP intensity forecast doesnt see a Tropical Cyclone from this.

WHXX01 KWBC 051303
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1303 UTC SAT SEP 5 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952009) 20090905 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090905 1200 090906 0000 090906 1200 090907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 29.9W 17.4N 32.7W 18.9N 35.6W 20.1N 38.1W
BAMD 16.0N 29.9W 18.2N 31.9W 20.6N 33.4W 23.0N 33.8W
BAMM 16.0N 29.9W 17.9N 32.2W 20.0N 34.2W 21.8N 35.6W
LBAR 16.0N 29.9W 18.2N 32.0W 20.2N 33.5W 21.6N 34.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090907 1200 090908 1200 090909 1200 090910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.3N 40.1W 23.0N 43.0W 24.9N 44.4W 27.0N 44.7W
BAMD 24.5N 33.4W 23.6N 32.0W 22.2N 33.3W 22.7N 35.6W
BAMM 23.6N 36.8W 26.2N 37.5W 28.4N 38.5W 31.3N 39.9W
LBAR 22.5N 35.0W 22.5N 35.4W 23.2N 36.5W 25.5N 36.3W
SHIP 26KTS 22KTS 22KTS 29KTS
DSHP 26KTS 22KTS 22KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 29.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 27.5W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 23.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

        *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL952009  09/05/09  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)        12    18    19    21    28    30    33    33    33    29    22    17    12
SHEAR DIR        196   197   215   219   224   233   244   234   261   261   266   281   296
SST (C)         26.8  26.4  26.2  26.0  26.0  25.9  26.0  26.1  26.3  26.4  26.8  27.2  27.6

[Sanibel]

2009 is a real teaser. It shows us good waves with rotation over land and sea and then poofs them.

[cycloneye]

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks great to me, I would think more people would be commenting on it by now.

[Sanibel]

Starting to take better form today.

[fasterdisaster]

It is looking a good deal better but shear is increasing and I say this has very bad chances of developing, and if it did it would only remain a minimal TS IMO.

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Bam models gives some life to 95L after 96 hours as shear goes down.

WHXX01 KWBC 051829
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC SAT SEP 5 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952009) 20090905 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090905 1800 090906 0600 090906 1800 090907 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 31.0W 19.3N 33.9W 20.8N 36.4W 22.1N 38.4W
BAMD 17.7N 31.0W 20.0N 32.9W 22.6N 33.9W 24.8N 33.8W
BAMM 17.7N 31.0W 19.8N 33.3W 22.0N 34.9W 23.9N 35.8W
LBAR 17.7N 31.0W 19.9N 32.7W 22.0N 33.7W 23.2N 34.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090907 1800 090908 1800 090909 1800 090910 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.4N 39.7W 25.2N 40.9W 27.8N 41.6W 30.3N 42.1W
BAMD 26.0N 32.7W 24.9N 31.1W 24.2N 31.5W 25.1N 31.3W
BAMM 25.5N 36.2W 28.0N 36.2W 30.6N 37.2W 34.2N 38.1W
LBAR 23.9N 33.9W 24.1N 32.6W 24.9N 32.1W 24.9N 30.9W
SHIP 26KTS 25KTS 27KTS 35KTS
DSHP 26KTS 25KTS 27KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 31.0W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 28.8W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 25.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Shear decreases after 96 hours.

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  INVEST      AL952009  09/05/09  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120

SHEAR (KT)        17    19    25    31    33    34    27    29    26    28    14     8     5


[Sanibel]

Looks like it is headed towards recurve.

[wxman57]

Yep, recurving and racing off to the north into high shear now. Bye 95L. So much for the moderate risk of development. I wonder how they determined such a high risk?

[Gustywind]

[FrontRunner]

Don't forget that those "high", "moderate", and "low" labels correspond to subjectively determined quantitative probabilities of development. For a brief time this had a 30%-50% chance of development - hardly that high. And this still corresponds to saying that, more likely than not, there won't be development within the following 48 hours.

[BigA]

The CMC and GFS seem to bend this back westward at the 5 to 6 day range at about 30 north, where the water is still plenty warm, assuming some westward component, so it could develop then, especially if SHIPS shear forecast is on the mark.

[Derek Ortt]

weak does not mean west here. Check the shallow BAM. Even the low level flow means recurve

[MGC]

Doubt it developes...too much shear. Hope it stays this way the rest of the season......MGC