TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA: Threat Area: Leeward Islands, PR

[caribepr]

Wow!!! Where is that photo??

[vbhoutex]

That is a lot of rain. I hope everyone is staying safe!!! I know that some of the islands are more prone to flooding than others may be due to terrain, but I do have a question. Are most or all of the Windward and Leeward Islands made from upthrusting of the "underwater mountains" than from sand like we have all along the Gulf Coast? Even though the amounts of rain shown can and would cause flooding in many places along the Gulf Coast there are probably the same amount of places that it wouldn't be too much of a problem due to the sandy soils all along the coast.

[cycloneye]

That is a lot of rain. I hope everyone is staying safe!!! I know that some of the islands are more prone to flooding than others may be due to terrain, but I do have a question. Are most or all of the Windward and Leeward Islands made from upthrusting of the "underwater mountains" than from sand like we have all along the Gulf Coast? Even though the amounts of rain shown can and would cause flooding in many places along the Gulf Coast there are probably the same amount of places that it wouldn't be too much of a problem due to the sandy soils all along the coast.

Look at the photos that I posted in the back page.

[vbhoutex]

That is a lot of rain. I hope everyone is staying safe!!! I know that some of the islands are more prone to flooding than others may be due to terrain, but I do have a question. Are most or all of the Windward and Leeward Islands made from upthrusting of the "underwater mountains" than from sand like we have all along the Gulf Coast? Even though the amounts of rain shown can and would cause flooding in many places along the Gulf Coast there are probably the same amount of places that it wouldn't be too much of a problem due to the sandy soils all along the coast.

Look at the photos that I posted in the back page.

I just did. You posted them while I was typing my post. Looks like Houston sometimes, except we wouldn't see any terrain in the background.

[caribepr]

Almost all our islands are volcanic in nature and some have very little soil, so yep, exactly right, it's a completely different animal than with sandy or more porous land.

This is a really simplistic but accurate explanation of the above:

http://www.mrdowling.com/710-islands.html

[cycloneye]

That is a lot of rain. I hope everyone is staying safe!!! I know that some of the islands are more prone to flooding than others may be due to terrain, but I do have a question. Are most or all of the Windward and Leeward Islands made from upthrusting of the "underwater mountains" than from sand like we have all along the Gulf Coast? Even though the amounts of rain shown can and would cause flooding in many places along the Gulf Coast there are probably the same amount of places that it wouldn't be too much of a problem due to the sandy soils all along the coast.

Look at the photos that I posted in the back page.

I just did. You posted them while I was typing my post. Looks like Houston sometimes, except we wouldn't see any terrain in the background.

The good news is that so far no fatalities haved been reported and hopefully,it looks like the worst may be over as this thing moves NW away.Only one big batch left to the south.

[vbhoutex]

Almost all our islands are volcanic in nature and some have very little soil, so yep, exactly right, it's a completely different animal than with sandy or more porous land.

Thanks for the clarification. It does make a huge difference. In FL where my mom lives their soil is all sandy with sandstone or limestone below that so they drain quickly while here in Houston, even though we are only 50 miles from the coast, we have a lot more clay type soils so we don't drain nearly as quickly. Of course the fact that we have 5M people and probably thousands of square miles of concrete only adds to the problem.
Back to you though. EVERYONE BE SAFE and let's pray that the rains start to head offshore soon!!

[caribepr]

I was going to ask what you thought, Luis, whether it is going to continue to swing this way or not...it is such a shapeshifter!

Hopefully people will stay off of the roads up there. The other good news is that Haiti stayed pretty dry through this!

[cycloneye]

I was going to ask what you thought, Luis, whether it is going to continue to swing this way or not...it is such a shapeshifter!

Hopefully people will stay off of the roads up there. The other good news is that Haiti stayed pretty dry through this!

Hopefully that big batch to the south of PR is the last hurrah of this.Lets see if it stays south and dissipates or not.

[caribepr]

Yes...I want to go listen to congas tonight with friends here from the BVI's!! And that bar is no fun if it's raining...

[Gustywind]

Yes...I want to go listen to congas tonight with friends here from the BVI's!! And that bar is no fun if it's raining...

You love congas? You play congas too?

[cycloneye]

This is the latest discussion from the San Juan NWS.Not out of the woods yet it seems.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA BY LABOR DAY. NICE DAY EXPECTED FOR LABOR
DAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...12Z GFS40 MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE BLOWUP OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA.
BASED ON 850-500 MB RH AND OMEGA FIELDS AND WHERE BEST DIFLUENCE IS
FCST THIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE MONA CHANNEL ANYWHERE FROM NW
OFF AGUADILLA TO AS FAR SOUTH AS 17N. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT
CURRENT TSTM CLUSTER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES INLAND OR A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL NEW TSTM
ACTIVITY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PR. THIS IS WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY
LATEST 06Z WRF-NMM MODEL. NONE OF THE MODELS OR FCSTRS HAVE THE
SKILL TO ACCURATELY PREDICT WHERE THIS EXACTLY WILL OCCUR.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT`S FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM. EVENING SHIFT WILL
REEVALUATE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THE WATCH WILL BE
EXTENDED FOR SOME PARTS OF THE ISLAND MOST LIKELY FOR THE ERN
THIRD WHERE MOST OF THE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS.

SO AT LEAST THROUGH 8PM...THINK WE WILL REMAIN IN A MID-HIGH LEVEL
OVERCAST WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT. GFS40 SHOWS K INDEX AND PWATS SLOWLY COMING
DOWN AFTER 06Z SO PERHAPS ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS IT WAS
OVERNIGHT BUT I STILL CAN`T RULED ANOTHER REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT.

MID-LVL CIRCULATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY THAT IF ANYTHING HAPPENS IT SHOULD BE FAR AWAY FROM US.

LOOKS LIKE TROPICS WILL TAKE A BREAK NEXT WEEK. MJO IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD AND LIKELY RESULT IN A QUIET TROPICAL
PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECTING A DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

SEE PNS AND LSR REPORTS FOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND FLOODING REPORTS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[caribepr]

Yes...I want to go listen to congas tonight with friends here from the BVI's!! And that bar is no fun if it's raining...

You love congas? You play congas too?

I love to listen, I don't play though. We have a group that plays every Saturday night, but it's only a covered area, so when it rains, everyone must huddle under cover and it isn't much fun...and, to bring us back to weather...it looks like we're in for more, that tail end is swinging our way

[Gustywind]

Yes...I want to go listen to congas tonight with friends here from the BVI's!! And that bar is no fun if it's raining...

You love congas? You play congas too?

I love to listen, I don't play though. We have a group that plays every Saturday night, but it's only a covered area, so when it rains, everyone must huddle under cover and it isn't much fun...and, to bring us back to weather...it looks like we're in for more, that tail end is swinging our way

Very glad to see that my friend . Off topic I begin with the trombon ( i always love it) but i stopped it quickly, not much time to play, improve my self:cheesy:. But i love many trombonists in the salsa (and salsa too) type as Willy Colon, José Davila, and Jimmy Bosch...: the salsa artist from PR... con su trombon criolo. Un regalo por el alma! Just a wink:rarrow: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=643v3Cl4 ... re=related
I appreciate particulary a singer from Dominican Republic: José-Alberto"El Canario" con su pito magico puede pitar como el canario, con el juego de sus labios...es maravilloso! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgPcZ7DzCuw
Hope that i put some sweetness in your heart PR...isla del encanto ! te quiero!

Back on topic Yeah... these remnants don't want to give up and continue to pose a problem in terms of flooding! Luis pics were amazing! Keep the faith you're close to the outcome, matter of hours right now. Be safe all in PR.
Keep us informed as possible.

[artist]

Coast Guard searches for overdue fishermen in Mona Passage waters
Saturday, September 5, 2009


Coast Guard rescue crews were searching on Friday for two overdue fishermen, missing since Wednesday, from a fishing trip in the Mona Passage to the fishing areas of Los Pichinchos, Los Rabos and Los Golfos. Coast Guard rescue crews have been searching since Thursday read more... more at link

http://www.puertoriconetnews.com/local.php

[caribepr]

Love the youtube! I was told how great Jazzfest was, hope to make it next year.

We're hearing lots of thunder now but no rain as yet.

As to the missing fisherman, very sad. Unfortunately, this happens a few times a year...seems this year more than usual - weather related? impossible to say

[artist]

[Gustywind]

Flooding rain hits Puerto Rico
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 5, 2009 5:22 pm ET
TROPICAL ATLANTIC
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
The remnants of Erika have produced flash flooding across parts of Puerto Rico. Rainfall rates as high as 4 inches per hour have occurred just south of the island. Some mountain locations have seen 7.58 inches.

As the Labor Day holiday continues, eastern Hispaniola and the southeast Bahamas could see locally flooding rain as well.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
710 PM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

PRC049-147-060200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0248.090905T2310Z-090906T0200Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CULEBRA PR-VIEQUES PR-
710 PM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

* UNTIL 1000 PM AST

* AT 702 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF VIEQUES. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT CULEBRA AS WELL WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR.

ACTIVE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
SOUTH OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA EARLY THIS EVENING. ACCORDING TO LOW TO
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AFFECT THE ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
MINUTES AND AT LEAST THROUGH 10 PM AST THIS EVENING. HALF TO AND
INCH OF RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FOR THE DURATION
OF THIS ADVISORY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[caribepr]

Thanks Luis...I'm posting it around...